Published on March 7, 2014
Lutz Finger Ask Measure Learn Last update: March 3, 2014
The philosophy of the day is data-ism. —DAVID BROOKS (@NYTDAVIDBROOKS)
Who • • • • am I Lutz Finger Director Data Analytics at LinkedIn Author of Ask Measure Learn Co-Founder Fisheye Analytics (sold to WPP) @LutzFinger LutzFinger.com linkedin.com/in/lutzﬁnger ?
Who are you?
Mario Vinasco Earliest Adopter Rahul Todkar Most Popular Bruno Aziza Most Connected Ron Goncalves, MBA, PMP, Most Endorsed
Intellectually enriching – at most
We focus too much on technology Google Search on the term “Big Data” ENGINEERS DATA SCIENTISTS
ASK the right Questions. MEASURE the right data – even if it is not Big data. Take Actions and from them. LEARN ?
ASK Ask the right Question
ASK THE HARDEST PART
ASK Let’s do “Social Media”
ASK Source: IBM Institute for Business Value.
• Opinion leaders (Katz 1955) • Inﬂuentials (Merton 1968) • Law of the Few (Gladwell 2000) Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media ASK Please find an “INFLUENCER”
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media ASK A few person decide what we do…
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media ASK REALLY?
ASK Dear Marketers, There is no inﬂuencer. It’s a myth.
ASK Reality 50% is Homophily • • • • 4 years 1001 Students on Facebook traditional Self-reported Data How did taste Spread Source: Kevin Lewisa, Marco Gonzaleza and Jason Kaufman (2012): PNAS Vol 109, no 1 Inﬂuence is often overestimated. It needs: § Reach § Readiness § Topic Dependence
ASK Aja Dior M.? AP News?
ASK Aja Dior M.? AP News? Aja Dior M. omgg, my aunt tiffany who work for whitney houston just found whitney houston dead in the tub. such ashamed & sad :( 45 min
ASK I want to create “REACH” … in order to “SELL”
MEASURE Measure the right Data
• Click Rates – Media • Low CPO advertisers • Etc.. MEASURE The world is full of WRONG metrics
Measure MEASURE What is RIGHT? Source: WIkipedia 30
Big Data MEASURE even if it is not
Social Data Behavioral Data Identity Data Data Volume MEASURE Analytical Challenge & Complexity 277+ Million Members = a lot of Data
MEASURE More Data does not equal More Insights
MEASURE We want small data…. Data ELT and Aggregation Web API Reach Analytics Portal or No Reach 1 Petabyte 2 Terabyte 3 Gigabyte 4 Bit
MEASURE Calculating Reach via Network Data 1977: Linton C. Freeman, “Centrality based on Betweenness .”
“SELL” needs purchase intend MEASURE “REACH” creates awareness
MEASURE Correlations are important
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media MEASURE What is your behavior?
MEASURE The issue with the Correlation / Causation
MEASURE Sometimes data is not easy to get.
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media MEASURE Social Behavior is ‘unstructured’
New York Weather in April 2013 Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media MEASURE It is way easier to work with ‘structured data’
MEASURE MEASURE Source: Jeffrey Breen 43
MEASURE What is RIGHT? Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media 44
LEARN Right Actions and learn from them.
2 Connections 4% 4 Connections 3% 1 Connection 28% 0 Connections 59% LEARN Information vs. Action…
LEARN Information vs. Action… 4 Connections 2 3% Connections 4% 1 Connection 28% 0 Connections 59% 47
LEARN Three Types of actionable Insights Benchmark Predictions Recommendations & Filter
LEARN Competitive Benchmark Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media 50
LEARN RECOMMEND & FILTER
People You May Know Groups You May Like Ads You Be Interested in Companies you May Want to Follow Similar Proﬁles Puls LEARN LinkedIn Recommendation Products
More than 50% of connections LEARN Recommendations Impact More than 50% of group joins More than 50% job applications
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media LEARN Filter
LEARN Predicting the OSCAR 2013
LEARN Predicting the OSCAR
Possible other Features: CROWDSOURCED: • Box Ofﬁce Results • Movie Goer Reviews • Critics OTHER “Hard Facts” • Genre • Payment of Actors • Etc. Source: Farsite LEARN Predicting the OSCAR
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media LEARN Predicting Box Ofﬁce
LEARN Predictions are not easy, especially if they are about the Future
Behavioral Score = 0.5 Identity Score = 0.3 Emily Score = 0.9 Social Score = 0.1 Behavioral Score = 0.2 Identity Score = 0.3 Steve Score = 0.9 ... With premium account, you get more search results and access to … Social Score = 0.4 ... Do you know 5 of you connections have started to use premium account … LEARN Propensity to Email Marketing
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media LEARN Which Model to use
Google’s Prediction API LEARN Which Model to use
Benchmark Recommendation & Filter Predict LEARN Many more examples…
LEARN Data Wrangling & Data Science is getting Easier
LEARN Training Update
ASK the right Questions. Forget Big Data but MEASURE the right data. Take Actions and from them. LEARN ?
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We do not want Big Data! We want the right data to answer the right questions! Data is changing our world. Predictions using massive data not only have ...