articles 71812 resource 1

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Travel-Nature

Published on March 30, 2008

Author: miloung

Source: authorstream.com

Investing in Urban Transport in Asian Cities -- Accessibility and Mobility at an affordable cost --:  Investing in Urban Transport in Asian Cities -- Accessibility and Mobility at an affordable cost -- Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asia A CAI-Asia Program Cornie Huizenga Herbert Fabian and Au Ables CAI-Asia Investing in Asia’s Urban Future: Ideas Mart 07 February 2007 ADB Headquarters Manila, Philippines Part 1: Context :  Part 1: Context Dhaka, Bangladesh:  Dhaka, Bangladesh Hanoi, Viet Nam:  Hanoi, Viet Nam Manila, Philippines:  Manila, Philippines Beijing, PRC:  Beijing, PRC Asian Experience:  Asian Experience Walking and NMT public transport– up to 1900 Shift towards public transport (bus, trams, rickshaws) but NMT still dominant 1900 – 1945 Emergence individual mobility, first 4 wheels and then 2 wheels, for privileged few 1945 – 1975 Expansion of individual mobility demand while maintaining broad based public transport 1975-1990 Explosion of public demand for individual mobility, neglect of public transport systems 1990 – 2005 Re-emerging interest in public transport 2005 - Urbanization Trends in Asia:  Urbanization Trends in Asia Source: ADB. 2006. Urbanization and Sustainability in Asia. Manila, Philippines. Economic Growth:  Economic Growth Total Energy Consumption in Asia:  Total Energy Consumption in Asia Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 Slide11:  Vehicle Growth in Asia (in Millions of Vehicles) Note: Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y Ltd China, P.R. India Thailand Indonesia Part 2: What will the future bring?:  Part 2: What will the future bring? Legacy Footprint:  Legacy Footprint What happens if we adopt the Business-as-Usual Scenario (BAU)? Emissions - criteria pollutants; Emissions - CO2; Road safety in Southeast Asia; Congestion Slide14:  Thousand Tons of PM10 China, P.R. India Future PM10 Emissions from the transport sector Source: ADB, 2006 Future CO2 Emissions from the transport sector:  Million Tons of CO2 China, P.R. India Source: ADB, 2006 Future CO2 Emissions from the transport sector Road Safety Problem in Asia:  Road Safety Problem in Asia Adapting the Business-as-Usual Scenario will worsen road safety and result to greater economic losses Estimating economic losses are highly dependent on the Value of Statistical Life used In 2003, 75,000 fatalities and 4.7 million injured in road crashes amount to annual economic losses estimated at $15 billion or 2.2% of Southeast Asia’s total GDP (ADB 2005) In 2003, 104,000 people were killed in traffic accidents in PRC with an estimated cost of US$ 397 M (Chinadaily and Chinatoday) Cost of Traffic Congestion :  Cost of Traffic Congestion Estimating costs of traffic congestion is an evolving science – methodologies vary and some may only include value of time and income lost, vehicle maintenance, and may exclude the health and environmental costs In developed countries Nearly 3% of GDP (US$810 billion) in OECD countries US$68 billion in 2002 in 75 US urban areas In Western Europe, gridlock will increase by 188% on urban roads by 2010 Situation is worse in Asia Cost of congestion in Korea is 4.4% of its GDP In Bangkok, cost of congestion can be as high as 6% of its GDP In the Philippines, Php140 billion is lost due to congestion (2% of its GDP) Source: Schipper, Lee and Wei-Shiuen Ng. 2006, December 15. The Role of Market-based Instruments Road Pricing, Parking Fees and Congestion Pricing. Presented in Better Air Quality Workshop 2006. Jogjakarta, Indonesia.; Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board and Department of Transportation and Communications; Part 3: What is happening in Asia now?:  Part 3: What is happening in Asia now? Modal Choices – Current Trends in Policy and Investments:  Modal Choices – Current Trends in Policy and Investments NMT (incl. Walking and Cycling) Private Transportation Public Transportation Busses Rail-based Urban Transportation System Taxi 3-Wheelers Para-transit Policy: - - - Investments: - - Policy: + + Investments: + + + Policy: + Investments: + Policy: + + Investments: + + Policy: + Investments: - - Policy: + Investments: - - - Policy: + + Investments: - Policy: + Investments: - - - The pedestrian is not valued :  The pedestrian is not valued Urban design guidelines for walk-paths are absent, and if there were, these are not strictly implemented in Asian cities The various laws for pedestrians are rarely enforced due to insufficient funding for traffic police. Walking in most Asian cities is dangerous, time consuming and extremely unhealthy How much do you walk, and how did you get here today?? Private Cars in Asia :  Private Cars in Asia Asian governments perceive automotive industry as “driver” of industrialization and economic development Recent trend in the development of low cost vehicles e.g. smart cars Advertising glorifies private car ownership China and India Cheap car loans bring cars within reach of increasingly large(r) groups in the population Busses are for losers Development banks like to spend money on roads:  Development banks like to spend money on roads ADB Transport Lending, 2000-2003 Percentage of Distribution by Sector 2- and 3- Wheelers in Asia:  2- and 3- Wheelers in Asia Note: The forecasts used in Figures 2 and 3 were developed by Segment Y plc (www.segmenty.com) based on the Goldman Sachs economic forecast in their “Dreaming with BRICs” report Asia is different from Europe, USA and Japan – India, China and Thailand: 2005: 125 million 2008: 170 million 2015: 300 million When will the tipping point be reached after which people switch to cars: China 2025? Asian countries plan either for cars, busses and trucks – or for NMT – 2 Wheelers fall in between Parking policies are 4 wheel oriented There is no consensus on the role of 2 wheelers in transport systems for medium or long term future Electric bikes in China:  Electric bikes in China Despite being banned in some key cities, electric bike sales in China increased from about 7.5 million units in in 2004 to 9.5 million units in 2005 This dramatic growth has been largely due to legislation banning gasoline fuelled scooters and bicycles, introduced from 1996 onwards in several major Chinese cities, including Beijing and Shanghai There are about 260 companies in China manufacturing electric bikes and their components Note: Various sources compiled by John Rogers (2006) Part 4: Sustainable alternatives:  Part 4: Sustainable alternatives Criteria for transport sustainability:  Criteria for transport sustainability Financial/Economic Mobility of goods, services and people (quantity and quality) Capital costs Operation and Maintenance Social Poverty Gender Inclusiveness (disability, age) Environmental Criteria pollutants (PM, NOX, SO2, HC) CO2 emissions Modal Choices – Ideal Trends for Policy and Investments:  Modal Choices – Ideal Trends for Policy and Investments NMT (incl. Walking and Cycling) Private Transportation Public Transportation Busses Rail-based Urban Transportation System Taxi 3-Wheelers Para-transit Policy: + + + Investments: + + + Policy: + + + Investments: + Policy: + + + Investments: + + + Policy: + + Investments: + Policy: + + + Investments: + + + Policy: + + Investments: + Policy: + + Investments: + Policy: + + + Investments: + + The importance of maintaining NMT share:  The importance of maintaining NMT share “ Of the 20 million people living in Shanghai, 9 million travel regularly by bicycle approximately 200,000 by car.” Source: Shanghai to Ban Bicycling in 2004. 2003, December. Transportation Alternatives Bulletin. Available: http://www.transalt.org/press/askta/031219.html PRC Construction Ministry Vice Minister Qiu Baoxing said that the ministry firmly opposed the practice of cutting back on bike lanes and he had ordered the cities to restore them. Source: Reuters. 2006, June 16. China Urged to Back-Pedal on Anti-Bike Policy. Parked bicycles at Manjing, PRC Renewed focus on mass transit:  Renewed focus on mass transit The Indian Government has issued an urban transport policy which calls for re-orientation of urban transport with detailed financial mechanism backed up by billions of dollars. National Development and Reform Commission in P.R. China has issued an action program on sustainable development. The program plans to increase its BRT and rail lines to improve urban traffic management. Singapore is reviewing its land transport system to come up with an urban transport strategy that has a specific target on aggressively promoting public transport use. The Ninth Malaysia Plan likewise gives emphasis on urban transport development and is on their way of revamping their current public transport system. A public transport trust fund, integrated transport terminals, and a national commission to regulate the overall public transportation system will be established. “Transport planning in India has been driven by class interest in the last decades… Give back the roads to the people” - Mr. S. Jaipal Reddy, India’s Minister of Urban Development, in his inaugural address Sources: INDIA: India’s national urban transport policy 2006. http://www.urbanindia.nic.in/moud/programme/ut/nutp.pdf; PRC: http://en.ndrc.gov.cn/newsrelease/P020070205395147608553.pdf; SINGAPORE: Land Transport Authority. 2007, January 11. LTA To Begin Consultancy Study For Public Transport Industry Structure Review. http://www.lta.gov.sg/corp_info/index_corp_press.htm; MALAYSIA: Prime Minister Badawi. 2006, March 31. Full text of PM’s 9MP speech to Parliament. http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/3/31/nation/20060331170915&sec=nation. Bus Rapid Transit:  Bus Rapid Transit Segregated, median busways with median stations Pre-board fare collection and fare verification Restricted operator access (closed system) Free transfers between corridors Competitively bid concessions High frequency service and low station dwell times Clean bus technologies Modal integration The economics of mass transit:  The economics of mass transit BRT: $1-10M/km Metros: $40-220M/km BRT: 12 - 18 months Metros: 3 – 30 years TransMilenio SA Source: Karl Fjellstrom Planning and Construction Time Performance: capital cost vs. capacity:  Performance: capital cost vs. capacity Source: Chang, Jason S.K. 2006, March 22. Presented in Conference on Alternative Technologies for Public Transport Conference on Alternative Technologies for Public Transport. New Delhi, India Options for mass transportation systems:  Options for mass transportation systems Overall, more cities in Asia are planning or building BRT systems than subways or light rail lines 426 kilometres of BRT 14 kilometres of elevated rail 7 kilometres of subway Bangkok network simulations by Lloyd Wright US$ 143 million / km US$ 71 million / km US$ 2 million / km Mass Transit Systems at the same cost (US$1 billion) Slide34:  Bus Rapid Transit in Asia Systems in operation (17): Systems in planning or under construction (20): Finally…:  Finally… Slide36:  We cannot talk about urban transport until we know what kind of a city we want, and to talk about the kind of city we want, we have to know how we want to live.” -- Enrique Peñalosa Once the roads and fly-overs are built, the bike paths are taken out and the cars are on the road, the metros have been commissioned, ….it will become increasingly difficult to re-orient transport towards a more sustainable path. The time to act is now! -- Cornie Huizenga  Thank you!:  Thank you! chuizenga@adb.org www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia

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