Published on November 11, 2009
approach the future of cities by the singularity of technologies !
What's the nextstepsfromnow ?
What's the Singularity ? Overview, definition, SingularitySchools, …
MathematicsSingularity In mathematics, a singularity is in general a point at which a given mathematical object is not defined, or a point of an exceptional set where it fails to be well-behaved in some particular way, such as differentiability When x=0 this function fails to compute. As x approaches zero from either direction, it aproaches either negative or positive infinity
Singularity Concept The Singularity is a common matter of discussion in transhumanist circles. There is no clear definition, but usually the Singularity is meant as a future time when societal, scientific and economic change is so fast that we cannot even imagine what will happen from our present perspective, … and when humanity will become posthumanity.
TechnologicalSingularity Technological singularity is a term used with varying meanings related to self-improving artificial intelligence, superintelligence, breakdowns in the predictability of the future, accelerating change of the exponential or superexponential sort, and more generic "big events" in history.
Three Major SingularitySchools Accelerating Change, Event Horizon, Intelligence Explosion
Event Horizon by VenorVinge Lemma ! For the last hundred thousand years, humans have been the smartest intelligences on the planet All our social and technological progress was produced by human brains Shortly, technology will advance to the point of improving on human intelligence (brain-computer interfaces, Artificial Intelligence) This will create a future that is not to far than most science fiction, a difference-in-kind that goes beyond amazing shiny gadgets But what're the facts ? To know what a superhuman intelligence would do, you would have to be at least that smart yourself To know where Deep Blue would play in a chess game, you must play at Deep Blue’s level The future after the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence is absolutely unpredictable
Intelligence Explosion by E. Yudkowsky Lemma ! Intelligence has always been the source of technology If technology can significantly improve on human intelligence - create minds smarter than the smartest existing humans - then this closes the loop and creates a positive feedback cycle What would humans with brain-computer interfaces do with their augmented intelligence ? One good bet is that they’d design the next generation of brain-computer interfaces Intelligence enhancement is a classic tipping point; the smarter you get, the more intelligence you can apply to making yourself even smarter But what're the facts ? This positive feedback cycle goes evolve, like a chain of nuclear fissions gone critical - each intelligence improvement triggering an average of >1.000 further improvements of similar magnitude - though not necessarily on a smooth exponential pathway Technological progress drops into the characteristic timescale of transistors (or super-transistors) rather than human neurons
Accelerating Change by Ray Kurzweil Lemma ! Our intuitions about change are linear we expect roughly as much change as has occurred in the past over our own lifetimes But technological change feeds on itself, and therefore accelerates Change today is faster than it was 500 years ago, which in turn is faster than it was 5000 years ago Our recent past is not a reliable guide to how much change we should expect in the future But what're the facts ? Technological change follows smooth curves, typically exponential Therefore we can predict with fair precision when new technologies will arrive, and when they will cross key thresholds, like the creation of Artificial Intelligence
12 Information Technologies (of all kinds) double their power every year(price performance, capacity, bandwidth) 12
13 A Personal Experience Measure MIT’s IBM 7094 Notebook Circa 2003 2003 1,000 256,000 $2,000 1967 0.25 144 $11,000,000 Year Processor Speed (MIPS) Main Memory (K Bytes) Approximate Cost (2003 $) 24 Doublings of Price-Performance in 36 years, doubling time: 18 months not including vastly greater RAM memory, disk storage, instruction set, etc. And today a notebook priceis 250$ for the samecapacities ! 13 © KurzweilAI.NET
14 Moore’s Law is one example of many… Moore's Law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware, in which the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years 14
15 15 © KurzweilAI.NET
What'sreally important with the singularity concept ? For you, your city and yourcitizens ?
Usages !!! Someways of challenges : Domestic lifeEducation, hobbies and cultureTransportation in citiesFoodHealth Care…
Education, hobbies and culture
Transportation in cities
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