Annie Williams Market Trends Mar & Apr 2014

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Information about Annie Williams Market Trends Mar & Apr 2014
Real Estate

Published on March 10, 2014

Author: jonsweaver

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Mar 7, 2014 -- Mortgage rates stepped back a little this
week, but all indications are that an uptick is
imminent, as the underlying interest rates which help
to govern fixed-rate mortgages have firmed up
measurably in recent days.

local market trends The Real Estate Report SAN FRANCISCO Median Price for Homes at Record High The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in San Francisco set a new record high in February: $1,062,600. The previous high was reached in May of last year: $1,060,000. FEBRUARY MARKET STATISTICS Prices of both homes and condos/lofts made continued to be up, year-over-year, in January. The median price for homes was up 27.9% from last February. Single-family, re-sales home sales rose 23% year- over-year. The sales price to list price ratio for homes has been over 100% for twenty-three of the past twenty-four months. It was 107.6% last month. SALES MOMENTUM… for homes jumped 3.2 points to +4.7. Sales momentum for condos/lofts rose one point to +1.6. PRICING MOMENTUM… for single-family homes was up 0.4 of a point to 19.5. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts was up 0.5 of a point to +13.9. CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS After setting an all-time record in January at $950,000, the median price of condos/lofts backed off a bit in January to $930,000, a gain of 11.6% year-over-year. Condo/loft sales rose 16.7% compared to last Februay. The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the twenty-fourth month in a row: 105.9%. This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options. Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San Francisco 94123 Fax: (415) 202-1686 Cell: (415) 819-2663 AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com http://www.anniewilliamshomes.com DRE #01393923 Annie Williams Annie Williams | AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com | Fax: (415) 202-1686 MARCH/APRIL 2014 Inside This Issue > LOCAL MARKET TRENDS.....................1 > MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ...............2 > HOME STATISTICS ..............................2 > FORECLOSURE STATS ........................3 > CONDO STATISTICS ............................3 > MOMENTUM CHARTS ..........................4 Feb 14 Jan 14 Feb 13 Home Sales: 150 125 122 Median Price: 1,062,500$ 928,000$ 800,500$ Average Price: 1,462,634$ 1,256,020$ 1,143,784$ Sale/List Price Ratio: 107.6% 104.7% 104.4% Days on Market: 37 40 42 Feb 14 Jan 14 Feb 13 Condo Sales: 210 169 180 Median Price: 930,500$ 950,000$ 756,000$ Average Price: 982,552$ 1,109,376$ 882,558$ Sale/List Price Ratio: 105.9% 101.0% 103.1% Days on Market: 38 51 48 (Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC) Trends at a Glance (Single-family Homes) Homes: detached YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough 3-month 53% 4% 57% Jun-07 Feb-12 12-month 40% 7% 40% Apr-08 Mar-12 Homes: attached 3-month 43% 12% 46% Jul-08 Jan-12 12-month 35% 13% 35% Aug-08 Jan-12 San Francisco Price Differences from January 2012 & Peak & Trough -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 0 8 FMAMJ JASOND0 9 FMAMJ JASOND1 0 FMAMJ JASOND1 1 FMAMJ JASOND1 2 FMAMJ JASOND1 3 FMAMJ JASOND1 4 F San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change © 2014 rereport.com

Page 2 The Real Estate Report The chart above shows the National monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages as compiled by HSH.com. The average includes mortgages of all sizes, including conforming, "expanded conforming," and jumbo. MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK Mar 7, 2014 -- Mortgage rates stepped back a little this week, but all indications are that an uptick is imminent, as the underlying interest rates which help to govern fixed-rate mortgages have firmed up measurably in recent days. While the Ukraine troubles continue to concern investors the situation does appear to have at least stopped worsening for the moment. We might say as much about the economy; although the freshest data covering it is still revealing a mixed bag of results, at least some key indicators managed to improve a little bit. There is also some hope that rough winter weather is to blame for any subpar numbers, and if that's the case, an uptick in growth and mortgage rates is likely in the offing. HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages slipped by three basis points (0.03%) to land at 4.39%, 2014's lowest average rate to date. The FRMI's 15-year companion also eased by three basis points (0.02%) to dip to 3.51%. Popular FHA- backed 30-year FRMs joined the fray, sliding by three basis points of its own to land at 4.01% for the period, and the overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM also managed a fall of three hundredths of a percentage point, too dipping to an average rate of 3.03%, remaining at its lowest rate since late November. While the rough economic period of the last couple of months may or may not fade quickly, the most recent evidence is sufficient to suggest that it is fading. If this turns out to be the case, it's reasonable to expect that interest rates will nudge away from their recent lows and that the Federal Reserve will continue to trim QE apace. Any homeowners hemming and hawing about waiting for lower rates to pull the trigger on a HARP refinance should consider getting underway before too much more time passes. As they will remain favorable despite any small rise, interest rates are of somewhat less consequence to potential homebuyers, an audience who is arguably more concerned with both home prices and a lack of desirable properties than a few basis point change in rates. More new economic clues will come next week and mortgage rates will be firming a little. We'll see if retail sales have picked up, get a look at producer prices and early March readings for consumer sentiment, among other things. If the change in underlying interest rates is any guide, we'll take back this week's dip plus a few basis points, a move probably totaling 8 to 10 basis points in all. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 $300 $500 $700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 0 8 FMAMJ JASOND0 9 FMAMJ JASOND1 0 FMAMJ JASOND1 1 FMAMJ JASOND1 2 FMAMJ JASOND1 3 FMAMJ JASOND1 4 F San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) Ave Med Units © 2014 rereport.com Unit Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco 1,062,500$ 1,462,634$ 150 37 107.6% 32.7% 27.9% 23.0% 14.5% 16.4% 20.0% D1: Northwest 1,234,500$ 1,415,317$ 12 19 119.5% 19.7% -28.1% 20.0% -1.2% -21.2% 9.1% D2: Central West 892,000$ 882,323$ 17 36 112.9% 11.5% -2.5% 0.0% -1.8% -3.0% -19.0% D3: Southwest 700,250$ 821,557$ 14 46 104.5% 24.8% 35.6% 133.3% 1.8% 11.9% 40.0% D4: Twin Peaks 1,098,000$ 1,224,292$ 19 26 110.1% 15.6% 7.6% -9.5% 14.4% 14.6% 11.8% D5: Central 2,300,000$ 2,151,920$ 25 24 107.9% 49.6% 17.4% 38.9% 39.0% 16.1% 38.9% D6: Central North 1,729,000$ 1,912,286$ 7 61 102.8% -35.4% -28.5% 250.0% -9.5% -9.3% 133.3% D7: North 4,987,500$ 5,705,000$ 6 24 98.5% 26.3% 35.8% 100.0% 50.2% 47.0% 20.0% D8: Northeast 2,900,000$ 2,706,250$ 4 10 105.5% n/a n/a n/a -34.1% -38.5% 300.0% D9: Central East 1,252,500$ 1,285,772$ 18 45 115.5% 75.2% 73.6% 50.0% 8.7% 15.3% 80.0% D10: Southeast 632,500$ 616,625$ 28 55 104.9% 20.5% 18.9% -15.2% -1.2% -0.7% -3.4% February Sales Statistics (Single-family Homes) Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 01-06 04-06 07-06 10-06 01-07 04-07 07-07 10-07 01-08 04-08 07-08 10-08 01-09 04-09 07-09 10-09 01-10 04-10 07-10 10-10 01-11 04-11 07-11 10-11 01-12 04-12 07-12 10-12 01-13 04-13 07-13 10-13 01-14 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

Table Definitions _______________ Median Price The price at which 50% of prices were higher and 50%were lower. Average Price Add all prices and divide by the number of sales. SP/LP Sales price to list price ratio or the price paid for the property divided by the asking price. DOI Days of Inventory, or how many days it would take to sell all the property for sale at the current rate of sales. Pend Property under contract to sell that hasn’t closed escrow. Inven Number of properties actively for sale as of the last day of the month. Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, in San Francisco continues to drop. They were down 29.3% in January from December. Year-over- year, notices were down 9.4%. There were 29 notices in December. Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, dropped 32.6% from December, and they were down 54.4% year-over-year. There were 31. After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. FORECLOSURE STATISTICS Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank. There were 42 sales cancelled last month. Only three homes went back to the bank in January. There are currently 138 properties scheduled for sale. With the recent surge in prices, many of them will probably be cancelled. The total number of properties owned by the banks was down 42.7% year-over-year. The banks now own approximately 240 properties in the city. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 0 8 FMAMJ JASOND0 9 FMAMJ JASOND1 0 FMAMJ JASOND1 1 FMAMJ JASOND1 2 FMAMJ JASOND1 3 FMAMJ JASOND1 4 F San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) Ave Med Units © 2014 rereport.com -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 0 8 FMAMJ JASOND0 9 FMAMJ JASOND1 0 FMAMJ JASOND1 1 FMAMJ JASOND1 2 FMAMJ JASOND1 3 FMAMJ JASOND1 4 F San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change © 2014 rereport.com Unit Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco 930,500$ 982,552$ 210 38 105.9% 23.1% 11.3% 16.7% -2.1% -11.4% 24.3% D1: Northwest 1,010,850$ 945,317$ 9 60 108.5% 77.3% 61.7% -25.0% -25.9% -30.4% 125.0% D2: Central West 810,000$ 810,000$ 2 64 98.8% -15.9% -15.9% 0.0% n/a n/a n/a D3: Southwest 410,000$ 410,000$ 3 56 108.0% 28.1% 2.7% 0.0% 2.2% 2.2% 200.0% D4: Twin Peaks 599,000$ 596,600$ 5 16 108.2% 53.8% 49.2% 25.0% -4.8% -5.5% -16.7% D5: Central 1,062,500$ 1,087,544$ 28 21 113.0% 15.8% 14.5% -22.2% -5.3% -3.2% 16.7% D6: Central North 725,000$ 766,185$ 20 59 110.5% 4.3% 2.4% 100.0% -17.1% -1.8% 17.6% D7: North 1,365,000$ 1,274,075$ 15 28 108.5% 25.8% 10.1% -28.6% 0.7% -20.1% -21.1% D8: Northeast 910,000$ 1,087,057$ 33 46 100.9% 30.7% 22.6% 17.9% -2.5% -17.3% -13.2% D9: Central East 980,000$ 995,156$ 90 29 104.5% 25.7% 8.6% 50.0% 11.5% 3.1% 52.5% D10: Southeast 442,000$ 334,416$ 5 147 96.3% 100.6% 51.8% 150.0% -0.7% -24.9% 400.0% February Sales Statistics (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change

The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT San Francisco Annie Williams Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San Francisco 94123 Go online to see the full report with the district by district breakdown: HTTP://WWW.ANNIEWILLIAMSHOMES.COM -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 0 8 FMAMJ JASOND0 9 FMAMJ JASOND1 0 FMAMJ JASOND1 1 FMAMJ JASOND1 2 FMAMJ JASOND1 3 FMAMJ JASOND1 4 F San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum Sales Pricing © 2014 rereport.com -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 0 8 FMAMJ JASOND0 9 FMAMJ JASOND1 0 FMAMJ JASOND1 1 FMAMJ JASOND1 2 FMAMJ JASOND1 3 FMAMJ JASOND1 4 F San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum Sales Pricing © 2014 rereport.com

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