AMY IMS CLIVARSSG15

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Information about AMY IMS CLIVARSSG15
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Published on March 27, 2008

Author: Waldarrama

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Slide1:  http://mahasri.cr.chiba-u.ac.jp/ Asian Monsoon Years (AMY) 2007-2011 Report to CLIVAR SSG-15 Geneva, Sept. 11-14 2007 Programmatic Development:  Programmatic Development AMY’08 stems from grass-root scientific and societal imperatives Initiated in August 2006, Xining meeting Strongly supported by GEWEX and CLIVAR GEWEX/MAHASRI workshop, Jan. 8 2007, Tokyo GEWEX SSG, Jan. 22/25 2007, Honolulu CLIVAR/AAMP, Feb 19/21 2007, Honolulu Endorsed by WCRP/JSC on 28th JSC meeting, Mar. 26-30 2007 Zanzibar, Tanzania Identified as a cross-cutting weather and climate activity by WMO/WWRP. 1st AMY meeting, Apr. 23-25 2007, Beijing Established SSC, working group, IPO 2nd AMY meeting, Sept 3-4 2007, Bali, Indonesia Science plan and implementation plan WCRP-JSC in Zanzibar March 2007:  WCRP-JSC in Zanzibar March 2007 Endorsed the concept of the AMY and the International Monsoon Study (IMS) as a major initiative to promote broad-based climate research for the monsoon systems of the world. The AMY initiative was visualized as “a coordinated national and international observation and modeling activity to better understand the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction and aerosol-cloud-radiation-monsoon interaction of the Asian monsoon system, for improving monsoon prediction”. Science Plan for Asian Monsoon Year 2008 (Draft Ver. 5 August 30, 2007) Outline:  Science Plan for Asian Monsoon Year 2008 (Draft Ver. 5 August 30, 2007) Outline 1. Introduction 1.1 Programmatic development 1.2 Participants 2. Science background 2.1 Diurnal cycle 2.2 Intraseasonal variability 2.3 Annual cycle 2.4 Interannual variability 2.5 Interdecadal variability and future change 2.6 Extreme and high impact weather 3. Science foci 3.1 Cross-cutting themes 3.2 Overarching science questions Slide5:  4. Goals and objectives 4.1 The overarching goals 4.2 Objectives 5. Strategy 5.1 Balanced and integrated approach 5.2 Geographic foci and capacity building 5.3 Organization 5.4 Collaboration and linkages 6. Planned activities 6.1 Field experiments: Ocean, Land, Special processes 6.2 Data management: Archiving and assimilation 6.3 Modeling coordination: Global coupled models, Regional models 7. Expectations (contributions to AMY, resources, timelines) AMY Participants: National/Regional Projects:  AMY Participants: National/Regional Projects JAPAN: JEPP, JAMSTEC/IORGC, ARCS-Asia, JAMSTEC/FRCGC, PRAISE CHINA: AIPO, SCHeRex, TORP, SACOL, NPOIMS Chinese Taipei: SoWMEX, EAMEX INDIA STORM, CTCZ, IIMX/Rain, CAIPEX USA- JAMEX, SMART-COMMIT, TiMREX Korea-Japan: PHONE08 Thailand; Malaysia; Vietnam; Indonesia; Philippines; Bangaladesh, Nepal; Mongolia Classification of Projects:  Classification of Projects Plus other National & International contributions AMY Participants: International Projects/Panels:  AMY Participants: International Projects/Panels GEWEX- MAHASRI, GEWEX-CEOP CLIVAR- AMMP, CLIVAR-IOP, CLIVAR-PP ESSP-MAIRS WWRP/TMRP- TCS08 THOPEX- TPARC Cross-cutting Science Themes:  Cross-cutting Science Themes Multi-scale interaction (Diurnal to intraseasoanl) Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Cryosphere-Biosphere interaction Aerosol-Cloud-Monsoon interaction Overarching Science Questions:  Overarching Science Questions What determines the structure and dynamics of the diurnal and annual cycles of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land system? What are fundamental causes for and how predictable is the Asian monsoon Intraseasonal Variability (ISV)? How predictable is the monsoon interannual variability (IAV)? What roles do atmosphere-land interaction and Tibetan Plateau play in the monsoon seasonal prediction? Do aerosols weaken or strengthen Asian monsoon? How will the Asian monsoon system change in a global warming environment and under human transformation of land, water and air? Goals:  Goals To improve Asian monsoon predictions on intraseasonal and seasonal time scales for societal benefits, by advancing our understanding of the physical processes determining the Asian monsoon variability and predictability, and to promote applications in order to support strategies for sustainable development. Success in meeting this overarching goal is a significant contribution to the new WCRP strategic framework. Objectives :  Objectives Improve understanding of the ocean-land-atmosphere-biosphere interaction, multi-scale interaction, and aerosol-monsoon interaction in the Asian Monsoon system. Determine predictability of the Asian monsoon on intraseasonal to interannual time scales, the role of land in continental rainfall prediction. Improve physical representation in coupled climate models and develop data assimilation of the ocean-atmosphere-land system in monsoon regions. Develop a hydro-meteorological prediction system (with lead time up to a season) in Southeast Asia. Better understand how human activities in the monsoon Asia region interact with environment. AMY Organization:  Scientific Steering Committee (Responsible for science and implementation plan): Chairs: Bin Wang, Jun Matsumoto Members: Guoxiong Wu, Tetsuzo Yasunari, William Lau, Toshio Koike, D.R. Sikka, S. Gadgil, Tandong Yao, Congbin Fu, Renhe Zhang, C.-P. Chang, Jagadish Shukla, Yihui Ding AMY Program Office: Jianping Li AMY Organization AMY Organization Working Groups:  Observation Coordination Working Group: Chairs: Dongxiao Wang, Manabu D. Yamanaka Members: Zhanqing Li, Yaoming Ma, Yunqi Ni, Jong-Dao Jou, Popuri Sanjeeva Rao, R.C. Bhatia, Xiangde Xu, Si-Chee Tsay, Jianping Huang, Hongbin Chen, A. Higuchi, T. Nakajima, N. Christina Hsu, Brent Holben, Somchai Baimoung, Thi Tan Thanh Nguyen, Kok-Seng Yap, Fadli Syamsudin, Dolgorsuren Azzaya, Samarendra Karmakar, Madan L. Shrestha Central Data Management Working Group: Chairs: Kooiti Masuda, Guangqing Zhou Members: Si-Chee Tsay, Kumar D. Preveen, Chi-yung Francis Tam, Mei Gao, M. Rajeevan Modeling and Prediction Working Group: Chairs: Harry Hendon, Takehiko Satomura Members: B. N. Goswami, Kun Yang, Xueshun Shen, Johnny Chan, Yongqiang Yu, Dehui Chen, Ailikun, In-Sik Kang, Jinhai He, Edvin Aldrian, Weijing Li, U.C. Mohanty AMY Organization Working Groups Slide16:  PROPOSED WAY FORWARD Finalize Science Plan: REVIEW THE SCIENCE PLAN AND AGREE ON A FEW PRIOIRTY SCIENCE QUESTIONS 2. Developing implementation plan ASAP FOR THE OBSERVATIONAL, ANALYSIS, AND MODELING ACTIVITIES FOR ADDRESSING EACH OF THESE SCIENCE QUESTIONS. 3. A PLAN TO SHOW HOW THE RESEARCH WILL BE USED IN IMPROVING PREDICTIONS Slide17:  IMS (2007-2011) Decision at The 28th Session of The Joint Scientific Committee (JSC), WCRP at Zanzibar, Tanzania, 26-30, March 2007):  Decision at The 28th Session of The Joint Scientific Committee (JSC), WCRP at Zanzibar, Tanzania, 26-30, March 2007) Endorse the WCRP crosscutting Monsoon Initiative. The JSC commented that the monsoon crosscut should include all the monsoon groups with a broader perspective, led by CLIVAR and GEWEX with participation of SPARC, CliC and WGNE and several activities outside WCRP (particularly THORPEX). Request CLIVAR and GEWEX to agree on how it will be supervised and the development of an implementation plan. The proposals for and concepts of an Asian Monsoon Year and an International Year of Tropical Convection should be considered as components of an International Monsoon Study (IMS) 2007-2011, a 5year strategy of WCRP monsoon research, which would include issues related to the East African Monsoon, capacity building and application of observations and predictions in monsoon regions for societal benefit. Slide19:  DECISIONS FROM ZANZIBAR JSC DECISIONS FROM ZANZIBAR: NEED TO DEVELOP A GLOBAL CROSS-CUTTING MONSOON PROGRAM FOR THE 2007- 2011 PERIOD. SHORT TERM TEAM (< 1 YEAR) NEEDED TO DEVELOP AN IMS STUDY PLAN (JSC REPS, PROJECT LEADS: J MATSUMOTO, BING WANG, OTHER MONSOON REGIONS/PANELS) STRONG LINKS SHOULD BE MADE WITH YOTC AND THORPEX. WCRP MONSOON CROSSCUT SHOULD BE DEEPLY ROOTED IN CLIVAR AND GEWEX PROJECTS. JSC ESTABLISHED A TEAM TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERSIGHT OF THE MONSOON CROSSCUT CLIVAR AND GEWEX WILL RATIONALIZE THE NUMBER OF MONSOON COMMITTEES Slide20:  SUBSEQUENTLY…… CLIVAR AND GEWEX IPOs INITIALLY PROPOSED A SMALL MEETING1 TO DEVELOP A CONCEPT PAPER THAT WOULD: - PROVIDE A GLOBAL STRUCTURE THAT INTEGRATES REGIONAL EXPERIMENTS AND PROMOTES COHERENCE AMONG THEM. CONCEPT PAPER SHOULD INCLUDE: - CLEAR SET OF AIMS AND OBJECTIVES - SET OF PRIORITY SCIENCE QUESTIONS - SOME GUIDELINES FOR IMPLEMENTATION - CONTRIBUTION TO APPLICATIONS AND CAPACITY BUILDING. JSC HAD APPROVED THE IDEA OF A SECOND PAN-WCRP MONSOON MEETING WHICH WAS TO BE LED BY PROF. T. YASUNARI. THIS MEETING IS A RESPONSE TO THIS RECOMMENDATION. THIS MEETING COULD SERVE AS A SUBSTITUTE FOR THE NON-EVENT BY INITIATING A PROCESS TO DEVELOP THE IMS PLAN NEEDED FOR THE GEWEX AND CLIVAR SSG AND THE NEXT JSC MEETING AND DEFINING THE NEXT PAN-WCRP MONSOON SCIENCE WORKSHOP. 1- MEETING NOT HELD DUE TO A LACK OF RESOURCES FOR TRAVEL (AND TIME) Gaps: First Pan-WCRP workshop (2005):  Gaps: First Pan-WCRP workshop (2005) Global Phenomena: diurnal cycle annual cycle, intraseasonal oscillation, atmospheric moisture distribution and transport aerosol-monsoon-cloud interaction Model processes: surface fluxes, planetary boundary layer and cloud. Land surface: need better observations of land surface conditions; roles of atmosphere-land coupling in developing monsoon precipitation Ocean: improve (and sustain) observations; importance of air-sea interaction and ocean processes in modelling of ISO and ENSO-monsoon relationship Regional foci: processes over the Maritime Continent, Pacific cold tongue and western boundary currents, and Indonesian through flow. Slide22:  ISSUES: 1) WHAT ARE THE FUNDAMENTAL SCIENCE QUESTIONS THAT CUT ACROSS ALL REGIONAL MONSOONS? 2) WHAT BALANCE BETWEEN MODELING, OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS SHOULD BE USED TO ADDRESS THESE QUESTIONS? 3) HOW WILL IMS PROVIDE A BRIDGE BETWEEN: - REGIONAL SCALE AND GLOBAL SCALE PROCESSES? - SEASONAL (AND BELOW) TO DECADAL AND CLIMATE CHANGE? - NATURAL PROCESS VS ANTHROPOGENIC PROCESS? - LAND AND OCEAN SPECIALISTS? - OBSERVATIONS AND PREDICTION CAPABILITIES? (E.G., BETTER DATA ASSIMILATION)? - INTEGRATED OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING APPROACHES TO PROCESS UNDERSTANDING? - RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS? Slide23:  CLIVAR - global view Indian Ocean A global perspective is imparative for understanding fundamental monsoon dynamics:  A global perspective is imparative for understanding fundamental monsoon dynamics The physical principle of conservation of mass, moisture, and energy applies to the global atmosphere and its exchange of energy with the underlying surfaces (Trenberth et al., 2000). All seven regional monsoons are driven by the annual cycle of the solar radiative heating and coordinated and connected by the global divergent circulation necessitated by mass conservation. Why Global Monsoon? Regional monsoon systems interact with each other and with global oceans:  Regional monsoon systems interact with each other and with global oceans A strong South Asian summer monsoon tends to be followed by a strong Australian and weak eastern African monsoon (Meehl 1997). Indian monsoon-East Asian monsoon (Kripalani 1997) South American monsoon and the African monsoon are possibly related (Biasutti et al. 2003). Teleconnection exists between East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon and North American summer rainfall (Wang et al. 2001; Lau and Weng 2002). Continental monsoons are interactive with surrounding oceans. Sahel drying is a response to warming of the South Atlantic relative to North Atlantic SST; Southern African drying is a response to Indian Ocean warming (Hoerling et al. 2006). ENSO affects A-AM, Americal monsoons and midlatitudes. Global Monsoon Science Issues:  Global Monsoon Science Issues How is the strength of the global monsoon precipitation best measured? What are the major characteristics describing the spatial distribution of observed Variability in global monsoon precipitation? How well do the coupled climate models simulate the observed climatology, variations and long term trends of the global monsoon precipitation? What causes regional differences in the presnt day climate, in the past, and in a global warming environment? How do the changes in global monsoon relate to external forcing, anthropogenic forcing? Have significant changes of global land monsoon rainfall been detected that are likely to be deducible from the atmosphere’s response to the observed SST variations? Slide27:  . The END Thank you! Terima kasih! Slide28:  Global Monsoon Precipitation Domain Wang and Ding 2006 GRL Definition based on summer-winter contrast (Annual range greater than 150 mm (JJA minus DJF in NH) and concentration of rain in summer (Local summer (JJA in NH) exceeds 35% of the annual rainfall) Slide29:  B.Wang & Ding, 2006, GRL Global monsoon rain domain Overall weakening of the global monsoon precipitation Slide30:  The global monsoon consists of a soltistial mode and an equinoctial asymmetric mode. The climatology of the tropical precipitation and low-level circulation can be well depicted by a Four-parameter metrics: the annual mean, a solstitial mode (JJAS minus DJFM, 71%), an equinoctial asymmetric mode (AM-ON,13%), and global monsoon doamin. The global monsoon precipitation domain can be delineated by a simple monsoon precipitation index (MPI): annual range exceeding 300 mm and the MPI exceeding 50%. “Strong” monsoon: strong annual reversal in lower tropospheric winds and a “wet summer-dry winter” contrast. “Weak” monsoon: a “wet summer-dry winter” contrast but weak annual reversal of winds. Remarks 2.1 Diurnal cycles:  2.1 Diurnal cycles What is the fundamental relationship between diurnal cycle and surface orography and land/sea configurations? Is there any specific distance that land derived diurnal signal propagates over the surrounding ocean? How much diurnal variations over the open ocean affect the diurnal cloud/rainfall variations? How are diurnal cycles are modulated by MISO and seasonal cycle? How important is the modulation of the diurnal cycle in interannual monsoon variations? How can we improve the model physics and correct the model diurnal errors? Will the models getting diurnal cycle right improve the modeling of low-frequency variability (intraseasonal to interannual)? GPS SG:  GPS SG MRI-GCM TL959 (20km mesh) 10-year average rainfall Example in Sumatera Island (Wu et al., submitted) TRMM (2A25) 6-year average rainfall (1998- 2003) mm/year Observation (TRMM): much rainfall over the Indian Ocean in the vicinity of Sumatera ↓ however… Simulation (high-resolution GCM): much rainfall over Sumatera island Climatology of rainfall around Sumatera strongly depends on moisture transport processes induced by maritime continent. Rainfall system around Sumatera could be simulated by cloud-resolving numerical model. 2004 April mean rainfall (mm/hour) simulated by MM5 2.2 ISV:  2.2 ISV How do we evaluate model simulations and measure ISO predictability and prediction skill? What are the current level of performances and common problems in the models? How to correct these systematic errors? How do the errors in simulating ISO impact simulation of the interannual variability? To what extent is the MISO predictable? What roles does atmosphere-ocean-land interaction play in sustaining MISO? What is the role of mesoscale systems in determining the heating profile (convective/stratiform) and how does this impact the evolution of ISO? How to get them right in the models? 2.2 ISV (continued):  2.2 ISV (continued) Do models simulate correctly the heating partitioning between the small-scale, high frequency and large-scale, low frequency disturbances? What is the role of radiative heating in tropical heating profile? How do model properly moistening the lower-troposphere? What is the influence of MJO on tropical cyclone and extratropical predictability? How do low-frequency components of climate modulate MISO and its statistical Slide35:  Northward propagation in Bay of Bengal (Yasunari 1979, 1980, Sikka and Gadgel 1980) and northwestward propagation in WNP (Nitta 1987) Formation of NW-SE tilted anomaly rain band (Maloney and Hartmann 1998, Annamalai and Slingo 2001, Kemball-Cook and Wang 2001, Lawrence and Webster 2002, Waliser et al. 2003) Initiation in the western EIO (60-70E) (Wang, Webster and Teng ‘05) Seesaw between BOB and ENP and between EEIO and WNP. Satellite Observed Boreal Summer ISO (1998-2005) Numbers: four phases, phase interval: 8 days Wang et al. 2006 2.3 Annual cycle:  2.3 Annual cycle Archive dataset that can describe the comprehensive features of seasonal cycles of the Asian and Australian monsoon. Identify the principal physical processes which determine the onset and retreat of regional monsoon system, in particular, occurring abrupt manners. Design metrics for objective, quantitative assessing model performance, predictability and prediction skill. Provide one-stop data source for cross-project use. Identify key modeling issues and develop effective strategy for improving models. 2.3 Annual cycle (continued):  2.3 Annual cycle (continued) Encourage use of large-domain cloud resolving model or cloud system resolving model simulation to provide surrogate data for studying convective organization, and multi-scale interaction in MISO. Improve initialization scheme, initial conditions, and representation of slow coupled physics in the coupled climate models. Develop new strategy and methodology for sub-seasonal monsoon prediction. Better understand physical basis for seasonal prediction and the ways to quantify the uncertainties associated the prediction. Modeling Coordination:  Modeling Coordination Three potential areas of integrated modeling : RCM activity: Develop a hydro-meteorological prediction system GCM/CGCM : Coordinated AGCM/CGCM intraseasonal prediction experiments CGCM-RCM Experiments Impact of land surface initialization on ASM seasonal prediction. Coordination toward fulfilling AMY objectives: Small task force group, leaders, Experimental design, participanting groups, Experiments, data collection, diagnostics, publication. Future Scenarios for Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Temperature over South Asia under A2 Scenario:  Future Scenarios for Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Temperature over South Asia under A2 Scenario The general conclusion that emerges of the diagnostics of the IPCC AR4 simulations: Asian summer monsoon rainfall is likely to be enhanced. From Kumar et al. Slide40:  Slingo 2006: THORPEX/WCRP Workshop report Need to understand Multi-Scale Interrelation In Monsoon ISO Slide41:  Kang et al. 2004, Cli Dyn AGCMs simulate climatology poorly over the WNP heat source region Wang et al. 2004, Cli Dyn Slide42:  5-AGCM EM hindcast skill (21Yr) OBS SST-rainfall correlation Model SST-rainfall correlation Two-tier system was unable to predict ASM rainfall. TTS tends to yield positive SST-rainfall correlations in SM region that are at odds with observation (negative). Treating monsoon as a slave to prescribed SST results in the failure. Pattern Correlation Coefficient Wang et al. 2005 Two-tier 5-AGCM MME hindcast of JJA rainfall (21 yrs) (Wang et al. 2005)

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