9 March Daily technical trader

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Information about 9 March Daily technical trader

Published on March 9, 2014


Source: slideshare.net

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Upmove The QE Index snapped its six-day losing streak and gained around 260 points as bulls were back in action. The index witnessed a gapup opening and reclaimed 11,400.0, its 21-day moving average and 11,600.0 in a single swoop after falling sharply on Wednesday. We believe the index may resume its upmove and advance toward 11,660.0, only if it manages to cling onto the 21-day moving average. Any retreat below this level may result in a pullback toward 11,520.0. The QERI Index bounced back and appreciated 1.95% to settle above the 3,350.0 level. The index cleared its resistances of both the 21-day moving average and 3,329.75, despite suffering heavy losses on Wednesday. However, accumulation is not recommended until a further bullish confirmation occurs. Meanwhile, the index faces an immediate hurdle at 3,382.68, which it needs to clear in order to gain further momentum. Until then, the index may consolidate. GISS continued its upmove on Thursday. The stock has been slowly gaining strength since moving above the 21-day moving average and is in an upward mode. Moreover, with the RSI moving higher toward the overbought territory, and the MACD crossing the signal line into the positive territory, the preferred direction seems to be on the upside. We believe the stock may be ready for a higher move above QR91.80, targeting the QR94.0 level. Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Breakout Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Breakout QIIK witnessed a gap-up opening and cleared the resistances of QR74.40 and QR75.80 in a single swoop after a failed attempt earlier. We believe if the stock can remain above QR75.80, then there is a possibility of a steady rise and a further advance toward the QR77.077.50 levels. However, a dip below QR75.80 may result in a false breakout. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence, supporting our positive technical outlook. IQCD moved higher and developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern on Thursday, which usually indicates an upward move. The stock is currently trading at the brink of its immediate resistance at QR195.0. A move above this level may spark additional buying interest, which may push the stock toward QR197.70. However, any failure to move above this level may result in consolidation. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up in a bullish manner. MARK witnessed a gap-up opening and surpassed the immediate resistances of QR38.0 and the 21-day moving average, along with the descending trendline, which had restricted its bullish move in the past. However, the stock faces an immediate resistance at QR39.10. If the stock manages to cross this level, it may result in the confirmation of this bullish move and may test QR40.0. Meanwhile, the RSI has rejected the mid-line and is moving up. Page 1 of 2

Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Short Term Support Long Term First Resistance Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,607.03 UP UP 11,520.45 11,484.55 11,660.55 11,754.45 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,372.15 UP UP 3,350.00 3,329.75 3,382.68 3,409.00 Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 38.60 UP UP 38.00 36.55 39.10 40.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 77.20 UP UP 76.40 75.90 77.50 78.00 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 61.50 DOWN DOWN 60.00 58.20 62.00 62.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 75.00 DOWN UP 74.10 72.80 75.00 75.50 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)* 76.50 UP UP 75.80 74.40 77.20 78.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 65.40 UP UP 64.00 62.56 65.68 66.90 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 28.45 DOWN DOWN 27.52 27.00 28.50 29.15 Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 40.65 DOWN DOWN 38.70 37.30 41.90 42.30 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 154.20 UP UP 153.70 151.50 154.90 159.00 Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 194.90 UP UP 192.00 190.00 195.00 197.70 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 170.00 UP UP 168.00 165.36 170.91 172.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 91.60 UP UP 88.00 85.80 91.80 94.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 40.80 DOWN DOWN 39.50 36.00 41.50 43.45 Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 32.05 UP UP 31.60 30.85 32.85 33.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.48 DOWN DOWN 21.00 20.50 21.70 22.00 Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 139.00 DOWN DOWN 138.50 136.00 139.90 141.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 11.93 DOWN UP 11.60 11.44 12.09 12.40 Nakilat (QGTS QD) 21.69 UP UP 20.90 20.50 21.83 22.19 Milaha (QNNS QD) 92.50 DOWN UP 91.30 90.00 93.00 95.10 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Industrials Real Estate Telecom Transportat *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Trading Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Sales Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2

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