6 ways big data can be wrong

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Information about 6 ways big data can be wrong
Technology

Published on February 4, 2014

Author: BobSuh

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Is business intelligence an oxymoron? This presentation shows how even the best are wrong even when given access to all the data they need.

6 ways big data can be wrong How to identify and address distorted data OnCorps 2014. All Rights Reserved Wrong 1

With access to hundreds of millions in business intelligence, in 2007… “economy is stable” February 2007 Business Roundtable Survey …CEOs were dead wrong. Private and confidential. All rights reserved. 2

Why? 1. Click distortion 2. Schindler’s list syndrome 3. Agent bias 4. Crowd contradiction syndrome 5. Confirmation bias 6. False positives OnCorps 2014. All Rights Reserved 3

1. Click Distortion OnCorps 2014. All Rights Reserved If the click means nothing to the user, why should it mean something to you? 4

2. Schindler’s List Syndrome What you rate and what you do are different Rated highly… OnCorps 2014. All Rights Reserved …but highly watched Source: Wired Magazine, The Science Behind The Netflix Algorithms That Decide What You’ll Watch 5

3. Agent Bias Top leader surveys reinforce biases without pulsing activities Use data to support the war OnCorps 2014. All Rights Reserved Monitor data to execute the plan Stay alive 6

4. Everyone reaches the same conclusion, negating the conclusion Crowd Contradiction Syndrome Fear of Olympic traffic gridlock means no gridlock Private and confidential. All rights reserved. 7

5. Favor information that confirms your beliefs Confirmation Bias “Our intelligence officials estimate that Saddam Hussein had the materials to produce as much as 500 tons of sarin, mustard and VX nerve agent. ” George W. Bush January 28, 2003 Private and confidential. All rights reserved. In 2006, Mr. Greenspan said there's "no evidence" home prices would collapse and "the worst may well be over." Source: Peter Wason, Joshua Klayman, David Perkins 8

6. False Positives Try to find a rare event in a big data set and you will be wrong more Official Red Teams slip gun and bomb dummies in TSA screens. 90% are undetected. Private and confidential. All rights reserved. 9

How to be less wrong (or more right) Private and confidential. All rights reserved. Track analytic profiles Isolate higher probability groups • Seek smaller, targeted groups • Identify adoption leaders Measure variances • Provide performance data to users • Make users want to come back Respect user anonymity • Create a schedule of analytic sprints • Monitor changes in what people do • Pulse • • Reciprocate Develop hypotheses • De-Average • • Profile Update hypotheses and build a database 10

Want to hear more? Go to www.oncorps.org OnCorps 2014. All Rights Reserved 11

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