6 - A Risk Analysis Framework for Offshore Wind Turbines - Gkoumas

44 %
56 %
Information about 6 - A Risk Analysis Framework for Offshore Wind Turbines - Gkoumas
Design

Published on March 10, 2014

Author: StroNGER2012

Source: slideshare.net

Description

ASCE Earth & Space 2010 OWT Symposium

http://content.asce.org/files/pdf/EarthSpace2010Prelim-FINAL.pdf

http://ascelibrary.org/doi/book/10.1061/9780784410967

Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines Konstantinos Gkoumas, Ph.D., P.E. University of Rome “La Sapienza” DITS 12th International Conference ON ENGINEERING, SCIENCE, CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATIONS IN CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENTS EARTH&SPACE 2010 MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI “A risk analysis framework for offshore wind turbines”

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines 1 Research objectives EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE • To address aspects of risk analysis, as part of a more global risk management process, for offshore wind turbines and offshore wind farms – Starting from the establishment of the specific risk management context, the various steps for risk assessment are presented, along with the methods for risk (- hazard) identification, analysis and evaluation; as a final step, the options for risk treatment are considered – For the purpose of risk identification, a system decomposition of the relevant elements is performed

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines Presentation outline • An overview of risk analysis issues • Recent cases of wind turbine failures • Issues for the offshore sector • Risk analysis standards and codes • Risk management phases • Context establishment • Risk identification • Risk analysis • Risk evaluation • Risk acceptance • Risk treatment • Considerations and outlook 2EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines Risk analysis for OWTs – overview • Risk analysis deals with uncertainties. For an OWT or an OWT farm, it involves the consideration of: • safety and security (for the workers and the general population); • environmental and economic aspects; • serviceability and lifetime performance. • Consequences to be taken into account include among else: • injury, or loss of life, due to structural collapse; • environmental losses; • loss of economic activity; • reconstruction costs. 3EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines Risk analysis – overview (2) 4EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE December 27, 2009 A 329-foot wind turbine, base to blade tip, collapsed early Sunday morning, December 27, at the Fenner wind farm in Fenner, New York. March 7, 2009 Only a few months old, this 1.5-MW GE wind turbine in Altona, New York. part of a 65-turbine facility owned by Noble Environmental Power, collapsed on Friday, March 6.

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines Risk analysis – overview (3) 5EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE July 8, 2009 Brandenburg, Germany Turbine wing destroyed by lighting. December 2, 2009 Uelzen ,Germany A wind turbine burns in the German city of Uelzen. The fire on the 130 meter tall turbine caused €750,000 in damage and is believed to have been caused by a technical defect.

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines Risk analysis – offshore sector • Increased activity in the sector: many new projects under development or planned • Offshore wind energy’s share of EU wind power production will increase from 3.9% in 2008 to over 25% in 2020 (EWEA, 2009*) • Given its larger potential, it can be expected that total offshore wind capacity will exceed onshore capacity at some point beyond 2030 (EWEA, 2009*) • Limited experience • Harsh environment • Environmental impact *Pure Power Wind energy targets for 2020 and 2030. A report by the European Wind Energy Association – 2009, update 6EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines Risk analysis - Codes and Standards • Risk analysis is defined in many International Codes and Standards usually incorporated within a more global process of risk management: • ISO/DIS 31000, Risk management - Principles and guidelines, 2009 • AS/NZS 4360, Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand. Risk Management,1999 • or in guidelines: • NASA, Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners, 2002 • IRM/AIRMIC/ALARM Institute of Risk Management, A Risk Management Standard, 2002 • Standards and guidelines for specific cases and/or analysis • NORSOK STANDARD Z-013, 2001 in the offshore industry • IEC 62305-2, Ed.1: “Protection against lightning – Risk management”, January 2006 • Recommendations of the JCSS, 2008 7EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines The risk management process Overview 8EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE • The objective of risk management in civil engineering is to reduce different risks to the level accepted by society, with specific reference to the safety of people, in the way prescribed or indicated in many international codes and standards. • The risk management process may comprise the following activities IDENTIFY RISKS ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT ANALYSE RISKS EVALUATE RISKS ACCEPT RISKS TREAT RISKS MONITOR AND REVIEW COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines The risk management process Establishing the context 9EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE • Definition of the scope of the risk assessment process • Timeframe – resources - depth of analysis. • Definition of the strategic and organizational context • Establish the nature of the organization in charge of the risk management and the operating environment • Identification of the stakeholders and objectives • Determination of the evaluation criteria • Decide what level of risk is acceptable IDENTIFY RISKS ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT ANALYSE RISKS EVALUATE RISKS ACCEPT RISKS TREAT RISKS MONITOR AND REVIEW COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines The risk management process Risk identification 10EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE Hazard: a source of potential harm or a situation with a potential to cause loss. Risk: the chance of something happening that will have an impact upon objectives. • Hazard identification: what can happen and how can it happen • Sub-steps for the hazard identification (Faber, 2008): • Decomposition of the system into a number of components/subsystems • Identification of possible states of failure • Identification of how the hazards might be realized IDENTIFY RISKS ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT ANALYSE RISKS EVALUATE RISKS ACCEPT RISKS TREAT RISKS MONITOR AND REVIEW COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines 11EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE The risk management process Risk identification (1) – System decomposition STRUCTURE Main structure Nacelle Rotor–nacelle assembly Operation Maintenance Emergency Support structure ACTIONS/LOADSENVIRONMENT Junctions/bearings Rotor Junctions/bearings Blades Junctions/bearings Tower Junctions Substructure Junctions Foundations Junctions Secondary structure Energy production Energy transfer Auxiliary structure Gravitational / Inertial Gravity Breaking Aviation Seismic activity Aerodynamic Hydrodynamic Actuation Other Wave Current Torque control Mechanical breaking loads Yaw and pitch actuator loads Tsunami Impact loads Wake loads Wind conditions Marine conditions Seabed movement and scour Other conditions Normal wind conditions Extreme wind conditions Waves Sea currents Water level Marine growth Air temperature Humidity Solar radiation Rain, hail, snow, ice Chemically active substances Mechanically active substances Environmental aggressiveness Lighting Seismicity Water density Water temperature Maritime traffic Normal wave conditions Extreme wave conditions Structural System Decomposition Petrini, Manenti, Gkoumas, Bontempi, 2010

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines 12EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE The risk management process Risk identification (2) – Failure states identification Bontempi, Giuliani, Gkoumas 2007 THREATS PHYSICAL DESIGN EXECUTION INTRINSIC EXTERNAL ERRORS FAULTS LOGICAL FAILURES DEPENDABILITY OF SYSTEMS • Failure: defined as the manifestation of an error or a fault in the system. • Methods: • e.g. following a bottom-up approach the critical event modeling can be neglected and an initial failure can be a-priori assumed on the structure

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines 13EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE The risk management process Risk identification (3) – Failure realization Giuliani, Bontempi 2010 • Identify how the hazard might be realized for the system and/or its subsystems • Scenarios • example: ship impact a. impact on one of the leg under the sea level b. impact at the sea level c. impact on the tower above the sea level • Scenarios realized on the basis of “common cause” failures (realistic scenarios), fitting LPHC events

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines The risk management process Risk analysis 14EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE IDENTIFY RISKS ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT ANALYSE RISKS EVALUATE RISKS ACCEPT RISKS TREAT RISKS MONITOR AND REVIEW COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT • Issues • Probability, as the likelihood of the risk occurrence • Impact, as the consequences if the risk occurs. • Methods • Qualitative Risk Analysis • Quantified (or quantitative) Risk Analysis (QRA) • Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) • Correlation with complexity • Creation of scenarios from the HHM of the system

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines The risk management process Risk analysis (2) – correlation with complexity 15EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE High-Probability/ Low-Consequences (HPLC) Low-Probability/ High-Consequences (LPHC) High-Probability/ Low-Consequences (HPLC) Low-Probability/ High-Consequences (LPHC) High-Probability/ Low-Consequences (HPLC) Low-Probability/ High-Consequences (LPHC) High-Probability/ Low-Consequences (HPLC) Stochastic Complexity Deterministic Analysis Methods Qualitative Risk Analysis Quantitative/Probabilistic Risk Analysis Pragmatic Risk Scenarios Stochastic Complexity Deterministic Analysis Methods Qualitative Risk Analysis Quantitative/Probabilistic Risk Analysis Pragmatic Risk Scenarios Bontempi, 2005

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines The risk management process Risk analysis (3) - HHM 16EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines The risk management process Risk evaluation 17EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE IDENTIFY RISKS ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT ANALYSE RISKS EVALUATE RISKS ACCEPT RISKS TREAT RISKS MONITOR AND REVIEW COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT • Standards • Good practice • ALARP

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines The risk management process Risk acceptance 18EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE IDENTIFY RISKS ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT ANALYSE RISKS EVALUATE RISKS ACCEPT RISKS TREAT RISKS MONITOR AND REVIEW COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT • Target: compare against previously established criteria • example: lighting risk Types of loss RT (year-1) Loss of human life 10-5 Loss of service to the public 10-3 Loss of cultural heritage 10-3 Typical values of acceptable risks (from IEC 62305-2 Risk Analysis Standard for lighting)

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines The risk management process Risk treatment 19EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE • Risk treatment is the process of developing, selecting, and implementing measures to modify risk. Treatment options have to be identified for the non acceptable risks. • Risk mitigation • Control the occurrence of a hazard - monitoring • Maintain a good level of structural integrity under an extreme event and accidental load • Risk reduction • Risk transfer • Risk acceptance IDENTIFY RISKS ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT ANALYSE RISKS EVALUATE RISKS ACCEPT RISKS TREAT RISKS MONITOR AND REVIEW COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines The risk management process Risk treatment: mitigation - monitoring 20EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE • The appropriate use of information from the various monitoring or structural control systems may lead to the reduction of the risk of occurrence of adverse events, or limit their consequences Bontempi, Gkoumas, Righetti 2005

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines The risk management process Risk treatment: mitigation – structural integrity 21EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE • Structural integrity: insensitivity to local failure • Reduce the occurrence of the action (“avoid” the action - event control) • Reduce the effect of the action (“avoid” local damage) • Reduce the effect of a failure – robustness (“avoid” disproportional collapse) Giuliani, Gkoumas, Bontempi 2007

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines Considerations and further research • This paper provides an overview of the risk analysis process, with specific reference to applications in offshore wind turbines and wind farms • Risk analysis should be a part of a more global project management plan • Relationships among the risk management process and other engineering issues and concepts are discussed (monitoring, dependability, structural integrity, robustness assessment) • The risk analysis process is a continuous process 22EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE

/23 Ariskanalysisframeworkforoffshorewindturbines Thank you for your attention konstantinos.gkoumas@uniroma1.it 23EARTH & SPACE 2010, MARCH 14-17, 2010 Honolulu, HI Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE

Add a comment

Related presentations

Related pages

“A risk analysis framework for offshore wind turbines”

A risk analysis framework for offshore wind turbine s Risk analysis for ... Gkoumas, PhD, PE 6 ... analysis framework for offshore wind turbine s
Read more

GREECE; PH: +30-210-9331373; email: kongkoumas@teemail

A Risk Analysis Framework for Offshore Wind Turbines ... This paper defines a risk analysis framework for offshore wind turbines ... 6. External ...
Read more

A Risk Analysis Framework for Offshore Wind Turbines (ASCE)

... A Risk Analysis Framework for Offshore Wind Turbines. ... risk. The risk analysis problem is defined within a more global risk management framework, ...
Read more

Roma, 8-9 Luglio2010 –www.francobontempi.org/handling ...

Offshore Wind Turbine Design Risk analysis ... A Risk Analysis Framework for Offshore Wind Turbines ... Gkoumas K. Planning of an Offshore Wind Farm in the ...
Read more

Offshore Wind Turbines | LinkedIn

View 2092 Offshore Wind Turbines ... 55 V90 Mk9 Offshore Wind turbines at MHI Vestas Offshore Wind. ... 6 - A Risk Analysis Framework for Offshore Wind ...
Read more

Konstantinos Gkoumas | LinkedIn

View Konstantinos Gkoumas ... Structural design and analysis of offshore wind turbines from a ... a risk analysis framework for offshore wind ...
Read more

Assessment of Offshore Wind System Design, Safety, and ...

Assessment of Offshore Wind ... certification of floating offshore wind turbines • BV-NI567—Risk-based verification of ... Wind turbines—Part 25-6: ...
Read more

Risk of collision between service vessels and offshore ...

... of collision risk when designing offshore wind turbines and ... risk analysis framework in this ... Offshore Wind Energy Website. Offshore ...
Read more

Where's the money coming from? - The European Wind Energy ...

Where's the money coming from? Financing offshore wind farms a report by the European Wind Energy Association Text and analysis: Athanasia Arapogianni ...
Read more