Published on March 5, 2014
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Upmove The QE Index witnessed a gap-down opening and continued its decline penetrating below the 11,600.0 psychological level. The index touched its intraday low of 11,491.44, but the mid-day surge helped it recover the majority of its losses. On the downside the index has strong support near 11,520.0, which is also in proximity to the 21-day moving average. We believe if the index can stabilize near this level it could set the stage for a rebound and may resume its upmove. The QERI Index rebounded and snapped its losing streak gaining around 0.64% to close the session at 3,364.23. The index momentarily dipped below the support of 3,329.75. However, the index witnessed some buying strength which pushed it above the 3,350.0 level. Traders are advised to wait and watch if there is any further follow-through to yesterday’s gains. The index needs to move above 3,382.68 to gain further momentum, or else it may consolidate. GISS breached the resistances of QR85.80 and the descending trendline, which had restricted its bullish move over the past few days in a single swoop which is a positive sign. We believe if the stock manages to cling onto its support of QR85.80, traders could witness a further upmove toward QR88.0. A decline below QR85.80 may result in a pullback toward QR84.60. Meanwhile, with a spurt in volumes and the RSI moving up, a short-term rally may not be ruled out. Nakilat: Short-Term – Breakout Milaha: Short-Term – Upmove Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove QGTS cleared the important resistance of QR21.83 and rebounded after witnessing selling pressure over the past few days. Moreover, the stock respected its support of QR21.44 on Monday and continued its rebound yesterday. We believe with the RSI showing bullish divergence, QGTS could continue to march ahead and test QR22.19. If QGTS manages to move above QR22.19, it could spark additional buying interest and advance toward the QR22.45 level. QNNS surpassed the stiff resistance of the descending trendline and moved higher yesterday. With volumes picking up, we believe QNNS may be ready for a move above QR95.10 targeting the QR96.50 level. Moreover, the stock has support for a higher move from the RSI which is moving up in a bullish manner. However, any failure to move above the QR95.10 level may result in consolidation and the stock may test the support of the descending trendline. VFQS penetrated below the support of QR12.09 on the back of large volumes. Moreover, the stock has been moving along the descending trendline over the past few days and is in declining mode. We believe although the stock is trading close to the support of the 21-day moving average, it is unlikely that VFQS will cling onto it and decline further to test QR11.60. Meanwhile, the RSI and the MACD lines are proving bearish signals indicating the weakness may continue. Page 1 of 2
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Short Term Support Long Term First Resistance Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,588.24 UP UP 11,520.45 11,484.00 11,660.50 11,700.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,364.23 UP UP 3,350.00 3,329.75 3,382.68 3,400.30 Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 37.30 DOWN UP 36.55 35.10 38.00 39.10 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 77.00 UP UP 77.00 76.00 78.20 78.80 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 60.90 DOWN DOWN 60.00 58.20 62.00 63.30 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 75.50 DOWN FLAT 75.00 74.50 76.00 77.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 75.30 UP UP 73.30 72.80 75.30 76.20 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 65.00 FLAT UP 64.00 62.56 66.90 67.50 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 28.85 DOWN DOWN 28.50 28.00 29.15 29.95 Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 41.00 DOWN DOWN 40.45 38.70 41.90 42.30 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 151.00 FLAT UP 148.90 147.00 151.50 153.70 Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 194.00 UP UP 190.00 185.64 195.00 197.70 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 167.70 DOWN UP 165.36 164.00 170.91 172.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 86.50 UP UP 85.80 84.60 88.00 90.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 41.60 DOWN DOWN 41.00 39.50 43.45 44.20 Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 32.10 UP UP 31.60 30.85 32.85 33.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.50 DOWN DOWN 21.00 20.50 21.70 22.00 Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 146.70 DOWN UP 145.90 143.50 149.00 151.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 12.05 DOWN UP 11.60 11.44 12.09 12.40 Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 22.00 UP UP 21.83 21.44 22.19 22.45 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 94.90 UP UP 93.00 91.30 95.10 96.50 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Industrials Real Estate Telecom Transportat *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 firstname.lastname@example.org Head of Trading Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 email@example.com Head of Sales Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 firstname.lastname@example.org Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 email@example.com Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2
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