46829 Presentation for Swedish Export Conference

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Information about 46829 Presentation for Swedish Export Conference

Published on November 13, 2007

Author: Charlo

Source: authorstream.com

Prospects for the Gulf in 2005 and beyond:  Prospects for the Gulf in 2005 and beyond Edmund O’Sullivan Editorial Director, MEED Swedish Export Meeting, 22 November 2004 Agenda:  Agenda Structure of Middle East economies Performance Outlook for 2005 GCC, Iran and Iraq Oil Petrochemicals Opportunities by country Issues MEED MEED:  MEED GDP 2004 ($ billion) GDP per capita 2003 ($):  GDP per capita 2003 ($) MEED Imports 2003 ($ billion):  Imports 2003 ($ billion) MEED Exports 2003 ($ billion):  Exports 2003 ($ billion) MEED Middle East oil production 2004 (000 b/d):  Middle East oil production 2004 (000 b/d) MEED GCC is the gateway for business…:  GCC is the gateway for business… World’s 16th largest economy Produced 14 million b/d of oil in 2004, exported most of it Growing gas exporter Site of choice for petrochemicals Exports worth about $190 billion Imports reaching $200 billion Fast-growing tourism destination Site of largest retail expansion in history Average per capita income approaching European levels 35 million people, and about 400,000 high-income Western expatriates. MEED The GCC:  The GCC MEED GCC growth has averaged 8 per cent a year since 1995 :  GCC growth has averaged 8 per cent a year since 1995 MEED “The GCC in 2004 is the world’s fastest growing region”:  “The GCC in 2004 is the world’s fastest growing region” Gill James Standard Chartered Bank September 2004 Budget deficits, but mainly to domestic lenders…:  Budget deficits, but mainly to domestic lenders… But the trade account is always in surplus….:  But the trade account is always in surplus…. Current account massively in surplus ($ million)……:  Current account massively in surplus ($ million)…… Why?:  Why? Oil & Gas Petrochemicals Construction and projects Services boom Investor confidence Oil & Gas:  Oil & Gas Slide17:  Oil and gas in Middle East MEED Slide18:  Source: Cedigaz, 2002 Middle East proven gas reserves, 2002 (billion cubic metres) MEED Slide19:  Gulf oil and gas reserves MEED Oil price trends 1999-2005 ($ a barrel):  Oil price trends 1999-2005 ($ a barrel) MEED Oil price trends 2004 ($ a barrel):  Oil price trends 2004 ($ a barrel) GCC oil production trends (b/d):  GCC oil production trends (b/d) MEED Petrochemicals:  Petrochemicals Slide24:  Hydrocarbon Exploitation Map NATURAL GAS SEPARATION METHANE SYNTHESIS GAS Ammonia//Urea Methanol GTL REFORMING LIQUIFY Pipeline Exports MAN, BDO, THF Crude Exports Refined Product Exports LNG MEED Slide25:  Ethane & Derivatives Gulf Ethylene Projects 20 million tons of ethylene capacity in progress or planned – almost all either fully or partly based on ethane feed MEED Slide26:  Gulf ethylene capacity to 2010 If all projects proceed, the Gulf will account for 20 per cent of global ethylene capacity by 2010 Global Capacity Share MEED MEED Projects:  MEED Projects Project pipeline in the Gulf is more than $200 billion in 2004-07:  Project pipeline in the Gulf is more than $200 billion in 2004-07 MEED MEED Projects Dubai:  MEED Projects Dubai Airport aims to handle 100 million passengers 2020. $4.2 billion. Jebel Ali airport. New project Palm Jumeirah, Jebel Ali Palm, Palm Deira, World, Moon, Madinat Jumeirah, Jumeirah Beach Residence, Burj Dubai, Dubai Mall, Jumeraih Lakes, Jumeirah Islands, Gardens of Discovery, Technology Park, Chess City, Lost City, IMPZ ($14b), Festival City ($2b) Dubailand $5,000 million in infrastructure alone Dubai Sports city $2,000 million. Dubai Light Rail. Palm Jumeirah monorail Third creek crossing, Beirut tunnel Empower. District cooling project Desert Classic, World Cup, Formula 1, Film Festival, Emirates: aiming to be biggest international airline Nakheel: palms, onshore projects, Lost City Emaar. Dubai Marina, the Burj Dubai etc Jumeirah International. Emirates Towers, Bourj al-Arab, Madinat (Al-Salaam and Qasr) MEED Slide30:  MEED The Jumeirah Palm:  The Jumeirah Palm MEED MEED Projects UAE:  MEED Projects UAE Abu Dhabi: Oil capacity development Gas: $2 billion Gasco non-associated gas scheme. Refinery developments: pipelines, gas storage Petrochemicals: Borouge expansion, Fertil melamine, Takreer Aromatics Fifth and sixth independent power/water project and grid Sale of state firms and vehicle component initiative with VW Abu Dhabi Airport second terminal and runway, cargo terminal, Royal Jet FBO. Expansion PMC bids in. Al-Ain Airport: new terminal, upgrade runway New tourism body New university Etihad Airways MEED Other UAE:  Other UAE Sharjah. Sajaa gas company. Gas from offshore Mubarak and from Salman Field (Iran) from 2005. RAK. Expansion of airport. AdP MEED Projects Qatar:  MEED Projects Qatar Qatar LNG. 15m tonnes in 2004 rising to up 60 million tonnes in 2010 Qatargas II. Biggest of them all. Work proceeding. $11 billion. 15.6 mtpa RasGas II. Chiyoda/Snam are EPIC for train 5. Q-Gas. To buy 57-75 tankers. QP/QNTC/QSC Petrochems Ras Laffan ethylene cracker 1.3 mtpa. Signing in 2005 Q-Chem II derivatives PE & NAO (QP+CPC). Signing in 2005 Qatofin Mesaieed downstream units. Signing in 2005 Qafco V. To be completed in 2009 QP/ExxonMobil olefins. Feasibility study GTL. $2 billion Shell. $3 billion ExxonMobil. Chevron $4.5 billion. $200 million Oryx Qasco expansion. $600 million Dolphin Energy Gas pipeline to Abu Dhabi, Fujairah and Oman. Kuwait in negotiation Asian Games facilities Education City $600 million The Pearl $2.5 billion Soil testing started 2006-2009 Hamad Medical City. $600 million Airport. $2.5 billion Qatar Airways North Beach development. Planned Doha Port relocation Qatar Bahrain causeway. 2nd Ras Laffan IWPP 1,025MW/60 mgd (IP/Chubu/Siemens/Doosan) $900m MEED MEED Projects Bahrain:  MEED Projects Bahrain Bahrain Bapco low sulphur diesel unit. $660. Q1 07 Lube oil plant planned Kuwait Finance House integrated petrochms/power/water $1.3 billion 1,000 MW Al-Ezzal IPP. Project proceeding Kuwait Finance House power and water. Award 03 05 Hidd Port project $1,000 million. Finish Q3 06 300,000 tonne Alba expansion. To be completed in 2010 Al Areen Desert Spa & Resort $1.2 billion Bahrain Financial Harbour. Project proceeding $1.2 billion Durrat Khaleej Bahrain resort Third Muharraq-Manama causeway Sitra causeway Amwaj Islands $1,000 million. Lulu resort. Under way. Riffa Golf course developlment $300 million World Trade Centre. Due in 2006. MEED MEED Projects Kuwait:  MEED Projects Kuwait Oil Project Kuwait operating services agreement 400,000 b/d Shuaiba II refinery. $800 million. Fluor Daniel has PMS. West Shuaiba Anode plant $200 million Petrochems $1.5 billion The Kuwait Olefins Company Dow/PIC PIC 560,000 t/y aromatics $1 billion Ahmadi oil storage project $800 KOC oil facilities upgrade KOC GC flare-system Power & Water 2,500MW Al-Zour North power station. $2 billion 50mgd Subiya desalination phase II. 2005. $300m Subiya, Falaika and divided zones. $3 billion Other Heritage Village $150 million 2005 Bubiyan Port $850 million Kuwait University Campus $3.5 billion. Design under way GUST, privately owned university Integrated sewerage system. $1.7 billion Iran-Kuwait water ? Qatar gas lineLNG? MEED Projects Oman:  MEED Projects Oman Oil Enhanced oil recovery to reverse production decline: $3 billion? Qalhat LNG train 3 due in 2006 $600 million GTL possible Industry Omifco fertiliser to start Q3 05 $969 million Sohar industrial port Other Sohar port development Sohar IWPP and water lines Rusail IWPP/privatisation Oman Wastewater Services Tourism Barr al-Jissah ($300 million) opens Nov 2005 The Wave under way MEED MEED Projects Oman:  MEED Projects Oman Sohar Industrial Port Company to be bid: berths for oil and chemcicals planned: aluminium and steel berths Oman Gas: operational Sept 05 Industrial gas plant: operational June 06 Cooling water: production Dec 05 Water: 2.12 mgd production Dec 05 Irrigation water: 70,000 gd operation Dec 05 Majan substation: distribution starts Sept 05 MEED Projects Oman:  MEED Projects Oman Sohar Industrial Port Company Sohar Refinery: operational June 06 Oman Polypropylene: operational June 06 Sohar Power Company IPP: operational July 06 Sohar Int Urea & Chems: operational Q1 07 Oman Methanol company: operatinal June 06 OOC/Alcan Aluminium Smelter: 2008 OOC/Dow Polyolefins: 2008 720,000 tpa DRI: 2007 350,000 tps Sharq Sohar steel smelter: 2006 OOC/LG/NPC EDC: 2007 PET: no date Steel assembly yard: no date MEED Projects Saudi Arabia:  MEED Projects Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco Oil capacity expansions. Hadriyah field. $1.5 billion Khurais filed development $3 billion Gas-gathering expansion: Hawiyah NGL $1.7 billion Juaymah fractionation $200m Hawiyah gas plant expansion $200m Gas initiative: Lukoil, Shell, Sinopec Downstream. Bulk plans, pipelines Rabigh IWSPP $500m Rabigh refinery/petchems Ras Tanura refinery/petchems MEED MEED Projects Saudi Arabia :  MEED Projects Saudi Arabia Petrochems Sabic: 11 projects Sadaf 600,000 tpa styrene plant Sharq expansion. 1.7 mtpa ethylene/propane cracker Yanbu 1.3 mtpa ethylene cracker Petrokemya expansion 1 mtpa 50 per cent Pemex petrochemicals, Chinese refinery Ar-Razi 5th methanol unit. $450 million Ibn Zahr PP plant MEED Projects Saudi Arabia:  MEED Projects Saudi Arabia Private petrochems PMD $2.5 billion PMD complex Tasnee ethylene cracker Sahara Petrochemical Company 1 mtpa ethylene Teldene polypropylene Gulf Farabi n-paraffin/LAB NPPC Jubail PDH/PP Sahara/Sipchem/Tasnee ethane cracker/olefins Sipchem Phase 2 and 3 Tasnee/Acetex joint venture methanol/VAM Alfasel PP in Yanbu Nama EPI/chlorine/caustic soda NPIC/Acetex methanol/VAM NPPC PDH/PP plant MEED Projects Saudi Arabia:  MEED Projects Saudi Arabia Minerals Alumina refinery/smelter $1,200 million Al-Jalamid phosphate mine $2 billion. Design work under way. Al-Jalamid/Al-Zabirah-Gulf railway. $1.5 billion Bauxite and smelter project Aluminium/DAP port at Ras al-Zour ACC 7,000 t/d cement plant MEED MEED Projects Saudi Arabia:  MEED Projects Saudi Arabia Power & Water Rabigh IWSPP 400 MW Marafiq IWPP 650-900MW/194 mgd Maaden 1,500M captive power $1 billion Shouaiba IWPP $900 million Shouaiba-Western Region water transmission line SWCC six small-scale projects MEED Projects Saudi Arabia:  MEED Projects Saudi Arabia Riyadh light railway $400 million Riyadh-Dammam railway upgrade Riyadh-Jeddah line Dammam-Jubail line Phosphate railway to Jubail King Abdel-Aziz International Airport Makkah & Medina developments Ettihad Etisalat. 1 million GSM lines in first year STC. 3 million new GSM lines MEED Projects GCC:  MEED Projects GCC MEFTA conflicting with GCC customs union GCC currency union GCC power grid. SNC Lavalin appointed. Bids called GCC rail plan. $4-5 billion. Muscat to Kuwait. GIH/Parsons Brinckerhoff Issues for the GCC in 2005:  Issues for the GCC in 2005 American policy. What will Bush II do in his second term: Traditional Republican New Republican Al-Qaeda. Is Bin Laden a busted flush? Iraq. Towards peace or chaos Succession and it implications. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Egypt Iran. Is a dialogue possible. GCC unity: power grid, rail line, currency union, FTA with EU MEED Iran:  Iran Oil and gas MoUs with China: 10 million tpa LNG imports, Yadaravan field, 300-350ktpa condensates refinery India: LNG project $1.3 billion Kharg NGL (LPG, ethane, propane, butane, condensates) Iraq:  Iraq Security Oil production now 2.4 million b/d Projects Total Construction Starts: 873 Construction Completions: 214 Work in Place: $1.35b Obligated Funds:$8.89b Committed Funds:$12.77b Iran:  Iran Petrochemicals Ilam Petrochemicals. 318,000 t/y ethulene Aravand Petrochemicals Olefins 8. 1.1 mty ethylene, MEG NPC Oelfins 12. 1.9 mty ethylene, HDPE, LLDPE, MEG Pars Petrochemical Company. Assaluyeh polystyrene. Amir Kabir Petrochemical Company. Bandar Imam LDPE Plant 300,000 t/y Final message:  Final message Good luck! Suite 222, Building 9, Dubai Media City, Dubai Tel: 00 9714 390 0045 Edmundosullivan@meed-dubai.com

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