40th Anniversary of the Palm Sunday Outbreak

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Published on October 5, 2007

Author: Mertice

Source: authorstream.com

40th Anniversary of the Palm Sunday Outbreak:  40th Anniversary of the Palm Sunday Outbreak How It Changed Tornado Preparedness & Forecasting Daniel McCarthy Warning Coordination Meteorologist NOAA/NWS/NCEP Storm Prediction Center Photo by Paul Huffman, Elkhart Truth Slide2:  Typical Parameters for OH Tornadoes > 80 kt Mid Level Jet over OK Coupled ULJ and LLJ Area underneath ULJ exit region Steep Lapse Rates over the Plains Advecting into area behind cold front or dryline BRN Shear > 80 Presence of Deep Layer Shear Fujita Attributed Outbreak to Several Facets:  Fujita Attributed Outbreak to Several Facets Decrease in Best Lifted Index Pressure of best lifting Strong differential thermal advection Occurring with respect to the juxtoposition of intersecting jets First comprehensive aerial damage survey Led to theory of suction vortices Enhanced Super Outbreak April 11-12, 1965:  April 11-12, 1965 ~47 Tornadoes 21 Killer Tornadoes 260 Fatalities 3,442 Injuries “Most significant outbreak since March 18, 1925.” -Fujita Fujita’s Plot of Aerial Survey:  Fujita’s Plot of Aerial Survey 850 mb 11APR65/1800 CST:  850 mb 11APR65/1800 CST From Fujita, et. al, 1970 500 mb 11APR65/1800 CST:  500 mb 11APR65/1800 CST From Fujita, et. al, 1970 200 mb 11APR65/1800 CST:  200 mb 11APR65/1800 CST From Fujita, et. al, 1970 Surface Analysis 1200 CST:  Surface Analysis 1200 CST From Fujita, et. al, 1970 Isotherm Analysis 1200 CST:  Isotherm Analysis 1200 CST From Fujita, et. al, 1970 Dayton Sounding – 1200 UTC:  Dayton Sounding – 1200 UTC Flint, MI Sounding – 1200 UTC:  Flint, MI Sounding – 1200 UTC Dayton, OH Sounding – 0000 UTC:  Dayton, OH Sounding – 0000 UTC DAY NAM 24 HR FCST Sounding:  DAY NAM 24 HR FCST Sounding LAN NAM 24 HR FCST Sounding:  LAN NAM 24 HR FCST Sounding TOL NAM 24 HR FCST Sounding:  TOL NAM 24 HR FCST Sounding NAM40 Surface:  NAM40 Surface SFC Td & Mean RH:  SFC Td & Mean RH 500 mb Vorticity:  500 mb Vorticity Upper Jet:  Upper Jet Low-Level Jet:  Low-Level Jet Composite :  Composite Supercell Parameter:  Supercell Parameter Most Unstable CAPE (>1000 Jkg-1) BRN Shear (>40 kt) 0-3 km Storm Relative Helicity (>100 m2s-2) SCP = MUCAPE * BRN Shear * SRH(0-3km) Supercell Parameters:  Supercell Parameters Differential Divergence:  Differential Divergence After Uccellini and Johnson, 1980 Fujita’s Aerial Survey:  Fujita’s Aerial Survey From Fujita, et. al, 1970 Storm Data:  Storm Data Storm Data:  Storm Data Toledo Tornado:  Toledo Tornado From Fujita, et. al, 1970 Toledo Tornado:  Toledo Tornado IN into NW Ohio:  IN into NW Ohio From Fujita, et. al, 1970 Bluffton Tornado:  Bluffton Tornado From Fujita, et. al, 1970 Rockaway Tornado:  Rockaway Tornado From Fujita, et. al, 1970 Strongsville Tornado:  Strongsville Tornado From Fujita, et. al, 1970 Slide35:  From Weather Bureau Survey Team Report Problems Identified:  Problems Identified Tornado “Forecast” issued for 6 hours Those interviewed didn’t know the difference between “forecast” and “warning” No real urgency until warnings were heard on radio and TV Radar coverage (WSR-57) inadequate Nothing in tornado-prone areas Poor communication with media sources Lessons Learned:  Lessons Learned Watch/Warning terminology began Before 1966 were “Tornado Forecasts” Watches area definition simplified Use 4 or less points to define Circles, Triangles, portions of states (Florida South of line from Tampa to Melbourne, etc. Parallelograms implemented in 1970 60 miles either side of a line 60 miles north and south of a line Lessons Learned:  Lessons Learned Hold Preparedness Meetings Spotter Talks now Saturate public with material on tornadoes Ready-Set-Go Outlook-Watch-Warning Doppler Radar Better coverage by NWS Private companies provide ability to local TV It Must Work!:  It Must Work! Slide40:  Thank You!! Any Questions? Web Site: www.spc.noaa.gov e-mail: Daniel.McCarthy@noaa.gov

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