Published on February 5, 2014
3D Printing: The Hype, Reality and Opportunities — Today Pete Basiliere Twitter: @PeteBasiliere @GARTNER_INC This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
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3D Printing: The Hype, Reality and Opportunities — Today Pete Basiliere Twitter: @PeteBasiliere © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form without Gartner's prior written permission. If you are authorized to access this publication, your use of it is subject to the Usage Guidelines for Gartner Services posted on gartner.com. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner di sclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information and shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in such information. This publication consists of the opinions of Gartner's research organization and should not be construed as statements of fact. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Although Gartner research may include a discussion of related legal issues, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner is a public company, and its shareholders may include firms and funds that have financial interests in entities covered in Gartner research. Gartner's Board of Directors may include senior managers of these firms or funds. Gartner research is produced independently by its research organization without input or influence from these firms, funds or their managers. For further information on the independence and integrity of Gartner research, see "Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity."
Overhyped or Revolutionary? Source: Stratasys Source: Pete Basiliere © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
The Hype Cycle of Innovation expectations Mass media hype begins Negative press begins High-growth adoption phase starts: 20 to 30% adoption Methodologies and best practices developing First-generation products, high price, lots of customization needed Third-generation products, out of the box, product suites Second-generation products, some services Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment time © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity
Hype Cycle for 3D Printing expectations Consumer 3D Printing 3D Bioprinting Enterprise 3D Printing As of July 2013 Innovation Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity time Plateau will be reached in: less than 2 years © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years obsolete before plateau
Poll Question 1 How familiar are you with 3D printing technologies? 1 not at all familiar 2 somewhat familiar 3 knowledgeable 4 very knowledgeable © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
3D Printing Defined An additive technique that uses a device to create physical objects from digital models Cross-section of Bioprinted Human Liver Tissue 2013 "Gartner Cool Vendor" Organovo Solidscape Example 3D Systems Projet Example Sources (left to right): Solidscape; 3D Systems; Organovo © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
3D Printer Market Categories • Consumer — typically used in the home or by makers • Enterprise — this category is composed of two subsegments: - Prototype — sometimes referred to as R&D systems - Production — items used in a manufacturing process or to make finished consumer and enterprise items • Industrial — these devices stretch anyone's definition of "printer" to the limit - Wide range of prototype, casting, finished goods uses and material selection © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Consumer 3D Print Applications — or Not? • Consumers' budgets will constrain purchases through 2015 • Plug & Play capability will drive consumer 3DP market growth beginning in 2015 • A compelling consumer application will surface by 2016, driving growth Source: 3D Systems • The complex 3D printing ecosystem will inhibit widespread acceptance through 2017 • © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Enterprise 3D Print Applications • The range of enterprise applications is large, growing and as varied as the vertical markets that can employ 3D printing are: Industry Impact Consumer products, Industrial, Manufacturing High Construction, Education, Energy, Government, Medical Products, Military, Retail, Telecommunications, Transportation, Utilities Medium Banking and Finance Services, Insurance Low • The hype around consumer 3D printing is driving increased enterprise shipments beginning in 2014 © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
3D Printer Market Drivers • Current SPAs - By 2015, seven of the 50 largest multinational retailers will sell 3D printers through their physical and online stores - By 2016, enterprise-class 3D printers will be available for under $2,000 - By 2016, at least 25% of discrete manufacturers will adopt 3D printing to produce parts for products they sell or service • Numerous TSPs - Significant M&A over past two years - Crowdfunded - China, India, Taiwan, elsewhere • Government initiatives - NAMII (USA) Source: Kickstarter (http://kck.st/P4QWSx) - China 3D Printing Technology Industry Alliance © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
3D Printer Market Inhibitors Awareness - Use cases Ecosystem - Companies — staff, scanners, software - Consumers — tools and creativity Costs - Hardware and software technologies, materials, actual build costs Other - Intellectual property rights, copyrights © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Source: Pete Basiliere
Poll Question 2 To what extent are you either using or planning to purchase 3D printers today? A – Already use 3D printer(s) primarily for prototyping B – Already use 3D printer(s) primarily for manufacturing C – Plan to purchase within the next 12 months D – Plan to purchase within the next 13-24 months E – No plans to purchase a 3D printer at this time © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
3D Printer Market Enterprise Survey • Gartner Research Council "Quick Survey" result Plans to purchase within the next 13-24 months, 6% Plan to purchase within the next 12 months, 4% Already use 3D printer(s), primarily for prototyping, 6% No plans to purchase a 3D printer at this time, 84% Source: Gartner (May 2013); N = 140 © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
3D Printer Market Size • 3D Printing has reached an inflection point • 3D printer shipments will grow to 1.1 million units sold in 2017, a 95% CAGR • End user spending will grow to US$5.7 billion during the same period, a 82% CAGR • NA and Western Europe growth strong; Greater China's stronger Source: Disney Parks (http://bit.ly/12KfBlr) © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Challenges — 3D Printer Providers • Opportunities - Become a hardware, software, supplies provider — with own brand or as OEM - Offer services — build items and/or become a file repository for enterprises, consumers • Risks - First mover advantage makes a target for fast followers - Go-to market timing may be too late — or too early © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Challenges — 3D Printer Users • Opportunities - Product development, augmented manufacturing, components and finished goods - New businesses and business models • Risks - Skepticism and resistance to change at several levels - Investment timing may be too late — or too early © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Key 3D Printing Takeaways 3D printing — "from design for manufacturing to manufacturing of the design" 3D printing has applications for enterprises, governments and educational institutions today - Consumers less so — for now 3D printer investments can be modest yet offer organizations significant benefits Technology providers must dedicate R&D and marketing resources to understand 3D printing's potential — now © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Recommended Gartner Research Forecast: 3D Printers, Worldwide, 2013 Pete Basiliere, Zalak Shah, Yulan Li (G00255101) Hype Cycle for Imaging and Print Services, 2013 Sharon McNee, Pete Basiliere, others (G00251077) How 3D Printing Disrupts Business and Creates New Opportunities Pete Basiliere (G00249922) Use the Gartner Business Model Framework to Determine the Impact of 3D Printing Pete Basiliere, Marc Halpern (G00246804) Emerging Technology Analysis: 3D Printing Pete Basiliere (G00237313) © 2013 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
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