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Published on December 3, 2007

Author: cooper

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Eurostat-OECD Workshop on the Non-Observed Economy for the Western Balkan Region:  Eurostat-OECD Workshop on the Non-Observed Economy for the Western Balkan Region APPLYING THE EUROSTAT TABULAR APPROACH TO EXHAUSTIVENESS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA FOR 2003 Ms. Natasa Lucic Agency for statistic of Bosnia and Herzegovina Contents:  Contents I. Non-exhaustiveness by types N1 to N7 The NACE activities most affected The data sources, methods and assumptions used The implication for GDP II. Summary of results Overall effect on GDP Which types of non-exhaustiveness predominate How estimates of non-exhaustiveness can be improved Difficulties experienced in implementing TA III. Future work I. Non-exhaustiveness by types N1 to N7 N 1 Producers deliberately not registering – underground activities :  I. Non-exhaustiveness by types N1 to N7 N 1 Producers deliberately not registering – underground activities Republic of Srpska NACE activities most affected: Larger adjustments have been made for: A (Agriculture), 50.9%; G (Trade and repair), 21.2%; H (Hotels and restaurants), 16.8% and I (Transport and communication), 8.8%. The remainder of adjustments refer to the activities: K (Real estate), 1.8% and F (Construction), 0.5%. Sources, methods and assumptions used: N1 adjustment estimates were based on branch statistics and expert judgments. The implication for GDP: N1 accounted for 0.44 % of total GVA, and 0.36 % of GDP for 2003. The share of the type N1 in the total adjustments is 4.43%. I. N 1 Producers deliberately not registering Federation of BiH :  I. N 1 Producers deliberately not registering Federation of BiH NACE activities most affected: The largest adjustment has been made for I (Transport and communication), 38.2%. Significant adjustments have been made for: N (Health and social welfare), 37.2%, G (Trade and repair of motor vehicles and household goods), 22.4% and D (Manufacturing), 2.2%. Sources, methods and assumptions used: the adjustments for type N1 were made on the base of the experiance and free judgement of experts of National accounts. The implication for GDP: The non-exhausiveness type N1 accounted for 0.17% of total GVA and 0.14% of GDP. The share of the type N1 in the total adjustments is 2.21%. I. N 3 Producers not required to register Republic of Srpska :  I. N 3 Producers not required to register Republic of Srpska NACE activities most affected: Larger adjustments have been made for: A (Agriculture and forestry) 47.5%, F (Construction) 24.9 %, G (Trade) 12.1%, H (Hotels and restaurants) 7.6% and D (Manufacturing) 3.1%. Lower adjustments have been applied to the activities: I (Transports) 2.0%, N (Health) 1.7%, M (Education) 1.0%, K (Real estate) 0.1%, and O (Other service) 0.04%. Sources, methods and assumptions used: N3 adjustment estimates are based on branch statistics and expert judgment. The implication for GDP: The total adjustment for type N3 accounted for 1.6 % of total GVA, and 1.3 % of GDP. The share of the type N3 in the total adjustments is 16.1%. I. N 3 Producers not required to register Federation of BiH (1) :  I. N 3 Producers not required to register Federation of BiH (1) NACE activities most affected: The largest adjustment has been made for F (Construction) 68,9%. Significant adjustments have been made for A (Agriculture and forestry) 14.21%, G (Trade and repair) for 11.26% and M (Education) for 3.98%. Other adjustment refer to D and B (1,66%). Sources, methods and assumptions used: Entrepreneurs: for G estimation was based on number of workers on market (from Bureau of markets) and estimated salaries; for M estimation based on demographic statistics (number of children 1-6 years) and estimated number of baby-sitters. Monthly salary of baby-sitters was estimated, as well. I. N 3 Producers not required to register Federation of BiH (2):  I. N 3 Producers not required to register Federation of BiH (2) Individual housing construction: covers construction of family houses and extension to family houses for the individual needs of the owners. Adjustment was based on Construction statistics. Data on completed buildings by years and other appropriate official statistical data were considered. Calculated total output was decreased for intermediate consumption (estimated value is 65% of total output). The difference between the total output and intermediate consumption is taken to be the value added of individual housing construction. I. N 3 Producers not required to register Federation of BiH (3) :  I. N 3 Producers not required to register Federation of BiH (3) Output of the agricultural products: Official data of agricultural production of individual sector increased for non-observed part of agricultural production: picking of mushrooms, forestry products, medicinal herbs and services in agriculture. Information were collected from municipalities agricultural experts, companies which buy up agricultural products and medicinal herbs, etc. The implication for GDP: The total N3 adjustment was 2.17% of total GVA and 1.77% of GDP. The share of the type N3 in the total adjustments is 27.64 %. I. N 4 Legal units not surveyed Republic of Srpska :  I. N 4 Legal units not surveyed Republic of Srpska NACE activities most affected: Larger adjustments have been made in activities: Trade 43.2%, Transport 20.7%, Manufacturing 19.9% and Construction 13.7%. The remainder refer to the Real estate 1.1%, Hotel and restaurants 0.8% and Agriculture 0.5%. Sources, methods and assumptions used: for N4 adjustment estimates are based on branch statistics and expert judgments. The implication for GDP: Type N4 accounted for 1.97% of total GVA and 1.63 % of GDP for 2003. The share of the type N4 in the total adjustments is 19.92 %. I. N 4 Legal units not surveyed Federation of BiH :  I. N 4 Legal units not surveyed Federation of BiH NACE activities most affected: The largest adjustment made to G (Trade and repair) 42,2% and than for D (Manufacturing) 31,4%. Significant adjustments were made for F (Construction) 8,07%, K (Real estate, renting and services) 5,88% and I (Transport and communication) for 5,45%. Other refer to A, O, C and E (7,04%). Sources, methods and assumptions used: The adjustment was made for enterprises not surveyed in 2003 (not fill up Statistical annex). They were surveyed in 2002 and 2004. Output and IC adjusted by indexes of increase of output and IC (2003/2002, official data) by section. VA was callculated as difference. The implication for GDP: N4 type accounted for 0,17% of total GVA and 0,14% of GDP. The share of the type N4 in the total adjustments is 2.14%. I. N 5 Registered entrepreneurs not surveyed Republic of Srpska :  I. N 5 Registered entrepreneurs not surveyed Republic of Srpska NACE activities most affected: Larger adjustments have been made in Agriculture 45.90%, Trade 28.70% and Hotels and restaurants 21.0%. The remainder refer to the Transport 2.70%, Real estate 1.20% and Construction 0.50%. Sources, methods and assumptions used: for N5 adjustment estimates are based on branch statistics and expert judgments. The implication for GDP: For 2003, the type N5 accounted for 0.97 % of total GVA, and 0.80 % of GDP. The share of the type N5 in the total adjustments is 9.81%. No adjustment was made for N5 in FBiH for 2003. I. N 6 Producers deliberately misreporting Republic of Srpska :  I. N 6 Producers deliberately misreporting Republic of Srpska NACE activities most affected: Adjustments have been made in Trade 31.6%, Agriculture 17.4%, Transport 13.5%, Construction 13 %, Manufacturing 12.2%, Hotels and restaurants 8.9%, and the remainder refer to the activities Health 2.3%, Real estate 0.7 %, Education 0.3% and Other services 0.1%. Sources, methods and assumptions used: for N6 adjustment estimates are based on experience and findings and expert judgments. The implication for GDP: In 2003, type N6 accounted for 4.91 % of total GVA, and 4.08% of GDP. The share of the type N6 in the total adjustments is 49.75 %. I. N 6 Producers deliberately misreporting Federation of BiH (1):  I. N 6 Producers deliberately misreporting Federation of BiH (1) NACE activities most affected: The largest adjustment was made to G (Trade and repair) for 40.9%. Significant adjustment was made for D (Manufacturing) for 16.3%, H (Catering trade) for 13.9%, K (Real estate, renting and services) for 8.4%, O (Other public, social and personal service) for 6.97%. Other activities were adjusted for 13.6%. Sources, methods and assumptions used: Enterprises: The enterprises were stratified by size in several groups (according to the turnover and number of employees) and, after that, adjustments were made for enterprises with less than 25 employees (public enterprises were excluded); estimates were based on comparation of compensation of employees by groups. I. N 6 Producers deliberately misreporting Federation of BiH (2):  I. N 6 Producers deliberately misreporting Federation of BiH (2) Entrepreneurs: Adjustment by entrepreneurs was made by increasing of number of employees per owner multiplied by minimum monthly paid off net earning per person in the FBiH and by increasing of owner’s income. The non-exhaustiveness type N6 accounted for 4,50% of total GVA and 3,66% of GDP. The share of the type N6 in the total adjustments is 57.25 %. I. N 7 Other statistical deficiencies Federation of BiH (1):  I. N 7 Other statistical deficiencies Federation of BiH (1) Small adjustment for type N7 in RS in the NACE O activity has been made for 2003. NACE activities most affected: The largest adjustment has been made to K (Real estate, renting and business services) for 18,0%, following with: G (Trade and repair) 17,7% and D (Manufacturing) 16,6%. Significant adjustments have been made for O (Other public, social and personal service) 12,3%, F (Construction) 9,1%, A (Agriculture and forestry) 7,0% and E (Electricity, gas and water) 6,5%. Other activities were adjusted for 12,8%. I. N 7 Other statistical deficiencies Federation of BiH (2):  I. N 7 Other statistical deficiencies Federation of BiH (2) Sources, methods and assumptions used: Enterprises: The methodological inconsistency was corrected, i.e. allowance for temporary and occasional jobs were excluded from intermediate consumption and included in compensation of employees. Entrepreneurs: Adjustment was made by hairdresser, daily amount of tips was calculated. The implication for GDP: The type N7 accounted for 0,84% of total GVA and 0,69% of GDP. The share of the type N7 in the total adjustments is 10.75 %. II. Summary of results (1) Overall effect on GDP:  II. Summary of results (1) Overall effect on GDP T. 1. Overall effect on GDP II. Summary of results (2) Predominate types of non-exhaustiveness (1):  II. Summary of results (2) Predominate types of non-exhaustiveness (1) The relative importances of non-exhaustiveness types (N1 to N7) in % of total adjustment for whole BiH are as follow: Misreporting by the producers (N6), 54.51 %; Producers is not obligated to register (N3), 23.42 %; Registered legal person is not included in statistics (N4) 8.64 %; Statistical deficiences in the data (N7) accounts for 6.82 %; Registered entrepreneurs not surveyed (N5) 3.58 % and Deliberate failure to register due to underground activities (N1) 3.02 %. II. Summary of results (3) Predominate types of non-exhaustiveness (2):  II. Summary of results (3) Predominate types of non-exhaustiveness (2) The relative importance of types N1 to N7 for BiH and by entities can be seen in Table below. T.2. Exhaustiveness adjustments: Relative importance by types (%) II. Summary of results (4) How exhaustive is the estimate of non-exhaustiveness:  II. Summary of results (4) How exhaustive is the estimate of non-exhaustiveness The estimates to improve exhaustiveness of the national accounts in BiH have been made in the absence of the data sources for more realistic and reliable estimations. Having the consistent results on the number and characteristics of households, farms, enterprises, entrepreneurs etc. would be surely provide better estimations. There have been a lot of problematic issues concerning the volume and quality of basic statistics, used practices and methodologies for coverage, calculation and control results. II. Summary of results (5) How can it be improved:  II. Summary of results (5) How can it be improved Improvements of the national accounts data in BiH are crucially dependent on the improvements of the statistical data from branch statistics and household surveys. Any supplementary surveys employed to support NOE Project and obtain corresponding data for improvements on underground, informal and similar activities would be welcomed. Consequently, above mentioned activities would be result in more realistic estimations of the NOE in GDP calculation. II. Summary of results (6) Difficulties experienced in the implementing of the tabular approach:  II. Summary of results (6) Difficulties experienced in the implementing of the tabular approach The BiH NOE Team strived to follow Eurostat’s Tabular Approach Guidelines as much as possible under the given limitation. As the official GDP in BiH have been calculated only by the production approach, the Project activities were limited to adjustments by Output Approach. Taking into consideration very poor basic data and specific political arrangement of BiH the original Eurostat’s Tabular approach tables had to be somewhat changed and adapted for specific circumstances. III. Future work (1) Plans to refine and improve the estimates already made:  III. Future work (1) Plans to refine and improve the estimates already made Keep on the work on the NOE- Exhaustiveness adjustments. Compile the equivalent estimation of NOE for the Brcko District. Improve results of adjustments for activities: Construction and Hotels and Restaurants based on indicators provided by the recently carried out ad-hoc surveys. Make estimations of NOE for 2004 following the same methods used for the 2003 and using the similar data sources and assumptions. Include results of imputed rentals calculation, by user cost approach, in the official GDP for 2004 and 2003 (detailed analysis of 2004 results and calculation results for 2003 have to be done before that). III. Future work (2) Plans to introduce the adjustments for non-exhaustiveness into the official national accounts :  III. Future work (2) Plans to introduce the adjustments for non-exhaustiveness into the official national accounts Increase the work on estimation of expenditure aggregates for calculation of GDP by expenditure approach. Organise more ad-hoc surveys among a small entrepreneurs (particular in services) and farmers to remove some doubts. Start to study Illegal activities: Prostitution and Trade in narcotics, that are significant illegal activities in BiH. Management of the three statistical institutions in BiH should establish HBS and LFS surveys in BiH as regular surveys, to meet NA needs, and to be financed by own Budget. Introduce the supply and use tables for BiH.

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