Published on March 30, 2014
Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QE Index rallied aggressively and gained around 151 points (1.33%) to close at its weekly high. The index breached its resistances of the 55-day and 21-day moving averages as well as the 11,400.0 level in a single swoop displaying good strength. Meanwhile, with the RSI showing a bullish divergence, and the MACD showing signs of recovery, the index is likely to continue its bullish move on the back of strong momentum. Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Breakout CBQK cleared the resistances of QR60.92 as well as the 55-day and 21-day moving averages in a single swoop. The recent price action and spike in volumes indicate that the stock may continue its advance targeting the QR63.67 level. However, a retreat below the 21-day moving average may result in a false breakout. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence, while the MACD is closing the signal line from below indicating the possibility of a short-term rally. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QERI Index continued its strong run and tagged another new all- time high settling above the 3,500.0 level as the bulls were under full control for the third consecutive session. Meanwhile, the index has been in upmove mode since moving above the 3,490.49 level and is currently trading in an uncharted territory. We believe the index may continue to tag new highs as it has strong support from both the momentum indicators, which are providing bullish signals. Doha Bank: Short-Term – Upmove DHBK moved above the resistances of the ascending triangle at QR59.20 and the 21-day moving average in a single trading session. With the RSI growing strong and the MACD diverging away from the signal line in a bullish manner, it appears DHBK’s preferred near-term direction is toward the upside. We believe the stock may continue its bullish momentum and test QR62.0. However, a decline below the 21-day moving average may halt its upmove. National Leasing Holding Co.: Short-Term – Upmove NLCS penetrated above the resistances of the 21-day moving average and QR29.15 on the back of large volumes after consolidating below it over the past few days. We believe this strong breach of resistances has bullish implications and may test & surpass the 55-day moving average targeting the QR29.95 level. However, a dip below QR29.15 may drag the stock back into the congestion zone. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are pointing higher. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove IQCD surpassed its resistances of QR178.30 and the 55-day moving average after consolidating below it over the past few days. Notably, volumes were also large on the rise indicating that potential buyers are stepping in. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating the continuation of this upmove. We believe the stock may march toward its 21-day moving average. The RSI has rejected the mid-line and is moving up in a bullish manner.
Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,482.34 UP UP 11,400.00 11,338.41 11,520.55 11,660.45 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,533.01 UP UP 3,490.49 3,481.42 3,550.00 3,580.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 38.60 FLAT UP 38.00 36.55 39.10 40.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 62.80 UP UP 61.67 60.92 63.67 64.58 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 60.90 UP DOWN 60.00 58.50 62.00 63.30 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 74.50 UP DOWN 74.10 72.80 75.00 76.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 71.40 DOWN FLAT 70.30 69.40 72.80 74.40 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 63.50 DOWN UP 62.64 61.52 65.68 66.90 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)* 29.20 UP FLAT 28.00 27.52 29.95 30.25 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 45.95 DOWN UP 44.50 43.20 47.80 48.75 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 151.00 FLAT UP 150.00 148.90 151.50 154.90 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 183.00 DOWN UP 181.40 180.00 184.50 190.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 170.50 UP UP 168.00 165.36 170.91 174.36 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 77.40 UP UP 75.20 73.20 78.80 80.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 55.20 UP DOWN 54.00 52.40 56.20 58.00 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 36.25 UP UP 35.80 34.80 36.80 37.40 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 20.48 DOWN DOWN 20.00 19.75 20.50 21.00 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 139.00 DOWN DOWN 138.50 136.00 141.00 143.50 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 12.00 DOWN UP 11.74 11.44 12.09 12.25 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 20.10 DOWN DOWN 19.80 19.50 20.26 20.44 Milaha (QNNS QD) 90.70 DOWN UP 89.40 88.60 91.30 93.00
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