Published on November 29, 2007
Slide1: POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT INTER LINKAGES: Discussions for modeling FRANCOIS FARAH, CHIEF, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT DIVISION ESCWA AMMAN, JORDAN APRIL 3, 2007 Changing paradigms:(i) Pre-ICPD : Changing paradigms: (i) Pre-ICPD Family planning Fertility Decline Slower Population growth Development = economic growth Changing paradigms:(ii) Post-ICPD/post MDGs: Changing paradigms: (ii) Post-ICPD/post MDGs Development seen in terms of POVERTY ERADICATION HUMAN DEVELOPMENT/ RIGHTS SOCIAL EQUITY GENDER EQUALITY PEOPLE ’S INVOLVEMENT Population thinking redefined at ICPD: Population thinking redefined at ICPD Population dynamics and reproductive health have been integrated into economic and social development For instance: Current focus of all development efforts: poverty eradication - Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Population and Poverty or Population and Economic Growth?: Population and Poverty or Population and Economic Growth? Population dynamics can create a demographic window when fertility and dependency ratios fall Consumption and savings per capita rise Human capital investments rise Labour force participation of women rises These forces have been shown to explain up to 1/3 of economic ‘miracle’ in East Asia Fertility and Poverty Intricately Linked at the Household Level: Fertility and Poverty Intricately Linked at the Household Level Source: World Bank, Health, Nutrition and Population Country Reports (latest data available by country) Poverty and SRH Indicators Highly Correlated: Poverty and SRH Indicators Highly Correlated Source: World Bank, Health, Nutrition and Population Country Reports (latest data available by country) Consider early childbearing and poverty:: Consider early childbearing and poverty: Adapted from work by Ruger, Bloom and Jamison Population and Macro-level inter-linkages (i): Population and Macro-level inter-linkages (i) Bellaggio as well as other research done in the 1990s and early 2000s: demographic factors play an important and significant role in poverty reduction Eastwood and Lipton (2001): study of 45 developing and transitional countries showed positive effects of reductions in CBR on poverty reduction and per capita income growth Barros (2001): study on Brazil showed that the direct impact of the demographic transition on poverty reduction between 1976-1996 was ~15 % of the overall impact of growth. Population and Macro-level inter-linkages (ii): Population and Macro-level inter-linkages (ii) Kelley and Schmidt (2001): declines in mortality and fertility have increased the rate of economic growth. They find that for the period 1960-1995, “Declines in each component contributed around 0.32 points to changes in per capita growth over the period 1960-1995. This figure corresponds to 21 percent of 1.50 percent, the average annual growth of per capita output “ Population and Macro-level inter-linkages (iii): Population and Macro-level inter-linkages (iii) Mason and Lee(2004): fertility rates have an important bearing on poverty: Study of Indonesia using household data for 1996. Analyzed the demographic dividend and estimated the net direct effects of fertility decline on poverty. Study showed effect of a 10% reduction in the child population reduces the level of poverty by 11 %. BUT THEN IT IS ALL FERTILITY! IS FERTILITY NOT AN OUTCOME OF SO MANY OTHER FACTORS? Population is more than just fertility!: Population is more than just fertility! An evolving cycle of several mutually dependent factors: population dynamics and structure, fertility, poverty, economic development, reproductive health, women’s empowerment, human rights, social equity, participatory development, culture and environment. The linkage between population and development is multi-dimensional. It operates in a complex set of directions. The central factor is population dynamics – not population per se —and the many variables that affect it Slide13: POVERTY TREE / POVERTY DYNAMICS Social organization & social structure (e.g. land distribution; family support Econ. System, access to resources, Governance, Policy & technology Social practices ad social values: (gender imbalances) Social services e.g. health system poverty Population and Macro-level inter-linkages (iv): Population and Macro-level inter-linkages (iv) Key issues to keep in mind: Impact of demographic and population factors on poverty reduction also dependent on country’s level of development and accompanying policies; lines of causality may be present but mechanics not clear; INTERDEPENDENCE Population and Macro-level inter-linkages (v): Population and Macro-level inter-linkages (v) Poverty: lack of resources competition for resource allocation. poor households make choices that discriminate against women/girls given inherent cultural and gender biases. With absence of rights, RH; and lack of access to education, health and economic means for social mobility, women caught in a vicious cycle of reproduction, family work, and further poverty Concluding Remarks: Concluding Remarks The issue of inter-linkages between population reproductive health, gender and poverty has been a subject of continued debate and dialogue. The gist of recent thinking is that at the macro level change in population structure has been associated with gains in economic performance, education and health improvements and increased investment in human capital and, sometimes with reduction of poverty. Population and development linkage (i) : Population and development linkage (i) i) is conditioned on the overall level of development: the lower the initial level, the greater the net positive impact of demographic transition on the overall human development; ii) depends on the minimum accompanying economic and social policies that are required to capitalize on the transition and bring people out of poverty such as accessible quality education and health services; Population and development linkage (ii): Population and development linkage (ii) iii) has a tide effect in a sense that mortality decline for instance contributes to rising economic growth rates (even though the initial effect of mortality decline is to increase population growth); and iv) displays at times a reverse causality to the extent that the decline of mortality and fertility are not only the cause of rapid economic growth but can also be the outcome of it. At the household level: linkages are more complex : At the household level: linkages are more complex A number of factors combine to create conditions that are likely to perpetuate the vicious cycle of poverty, ignorance, ill health, low human capital, low economic productivity, poor reproductive health, high fertility, high infant and maternal mortality, biased male dominated attitudes and negative values vis-à-vis women’s health and the girl child. The cycle is nurtured by making children a direct source of income instead of investing in their education and health. At the household level: linkages are more complex. : At the household level: linkages are more complex. The weak negotiation and bargaining power of women in the family, their low status in society and their lack of access to resources and knowledge, including to adequate reproductive health information, counseling and services makes it difficult for them to have full control of their fertility and their mobility. This exacerbates their poor reproductive health status and infringes on their human rights including their reproductive rights. This state of affairs perpetuates and is perpetuated by dwelling poverty that repeats and exacerbates itself making poor people poorer and poorer. Slide21: In Conclusion: In-depth analysis of population dynamics and formulation of responsive population and social policies will always be required to provide a better understanding of the interface between population and social, economic and human development. The same way population policies were required in the mid 1950s, in the 1970s and 1980s (and are still required in places with high population pressure) to manage the unprecedented population growth in the world, adequate integrated population and social policies are now required to create sustainable conditions for an equitable human development WHAT PARAMETERS TO KEEP FOR TRACKING INTEGRATION? AND HOW TO MANAGE THEM?: WHAT PARAMETERS TO KEEP FOR TRACKING INTEGRATION? AND HOW TO MANAGE THEM?