Published on March 12, 2009
2009 New Media Outlook
2009 Trends to Watch 1. Advertisers will turn to “measurability” and “differentiation” in the recession. • Advertisers will look to established publishers with reliable models to focus their investment. This will include proven performers like display, ad networks, search, video and targeted media. Page: 02 2009 Digital Outlook: Razorfish
2009 Trends to Watch 1. Search will evolve and innovate. • Search will be under increased focus on measurement and SEO, and the rise of compelling opportunities in local and mobile search. Page: 03 2009 Digital Outlook: Razorfish
2009 Trends to Watch 1. Social Media will go mainstream • According to Forrester Research, 75% of the online population is now engaged in online social behaviors. Marketers will count on their customers, more than ever, to do their marketing for them. Page: 04 2009 Digital Outlook: Razorfish
Advertising Getting Social • Social media networks • 215+ million unique visitors each month • 70 percent coming from MySpace, Facebook alone U.S. Internet users viewed over 10 billion videos online in the month of December alone. The highest TV viewership day of the year, Super Bowl Sunday, has an estimated 110 million unique U.S. It's about audience size, not page views or click-through Page: 05
Social: The App Is the New Ad Unit! Share and Invite Friends are now in the Ads Page: 06
2009 Trends to Watch 1. Online ad networks will contract; open ad exchanges will expand • There are too many broad networks competing for the same inventory without differentiators. • Branded networks will expand (e.g. the Fox Audience Network) • Expansion from Ad Exchanges like DoubleClick and Right Media will increase buying efficiency and deliver unprecedented transparency. Page: 07 2009 Digital Outlook: Razorfish
2009 Trends to Watch 1. Mobile will get smaller • Mobile is still an area of tremendous growth, but the idea that it will have a “break out year” is passed. • The “app” will play an important role in the growth of mobile advertising. (iFood Assistant mobile app from Kraft) • GPS functionality and location-based intelligence will improve content and advertising delivery. Page: 08 2009 Digital Outlook: Razorfish
2009 Trends to Watch 1. “Portable” and “beyond the browser” opportunities will create new touchpoints for brands and content owners • Advances in smartphones and entertainment devices have delivered endless on-the-go options for music, video, social networking, news and email. • Portable media has also come unhinged from its legacy devices; music is free from the turntable, broadcast is no longer limited to TV. • This will change how we interact with the Web. Page: 09 2009 Digital Outlook: Razorfish
2009 Trends to Watch 1. Going digital will help TV modernize • Content providers will launch branded VOD channels, featuring long form content or t-commerce. • Social media will influence video (CNN’s social TV experience on the Web around the inauguration is an example). • Alternative television providers like Xbox provide social communities in the living room around premium content. Page: 010 2009 Digital Outlook: Razorfish
2008 Vertical Spend •2008 saw a significant jump in ad spending in the entertainment category, and a decline in the health category. •Sites with strong video and audio drove the growth in that category. •News categories struggled due to tremendous fragmentation and traditional media outlets struggling to establish a similar presence online. Page: 011 2009 Digital Outlook: Razorfish
Influentials’ Online Usage 49% use search every day Internet activities in last 30 days: • 88% Email • 65% Obtained news/current events • 54% Made purchase personal use • 47% Paid bills • 35% Used IM • 30% Watched online video • 21% Visited blogs • 8% Wrote an online blog Source: MRI Research, Spring 2008; Pew Internet & American Life Project Page: 012
Influentials’ Site Visits (Site visits in last 30 days) Social networks: Search Engines: Youtube.com 27% Google 62% Myspace.com 17% Yahoo 21% Facebook.com 10% Microsoft 9% Information sites: News sites: Wikipedia.com 27% Yahoo! News 18% Yellowpages.com 21% CNN.com 17% Webmd.com 14% MSNBC.com 16% FoxNews.com 12% Page: 013 Source: MRI Research, Spring 2008
Social Media/Networking Defined • Use of digital tools for sharing and discussing information and experience • Now-dominant ways people interact and experience they expect • Social media outlets • Social networks • Blogs • Wikis • Virtual worlds • Video and photo sharing sites • Sharing documents/presentations • Widgets • Podcasts/Vodcasts • Mobile Page: 014
Social Networks • Online communities that share interests and activities • 57% of US Internet users have joined a social network • 17% of influentials visited MySpace in July Key insights for 2009: • People expect to find people and interact within social network • Growth of targeted / niche social networks • Social networks replacing search as launching point for online experience Source: Universal Mccann International Social Media Research Wave 3, January 2008; MRI Research Page: 015
Blogs • Web site with regular entries of commentary or news • Blogs now considered mainstream media worldwide o 73% of Internet users have read a blog o 21% of influentials read at least one blog in July o 112 million blogs existed at end of 2007 • Special blog search engines such as Tweetscan, Technorati and Bloglines Key insight for 2009: • Micro blogging is changing the nature of conversations Source: Universal Mccann International Social Media Research Wave 3, January 2008; MRI Research Page: 016
Wikis • Web pages that allow any user to modify or update content using simple tools • Wikipedia is free, open content encyclopedia • Often top 3 result in searches • 27% of influentials used Wikipedia in July 2008 Key insights for 2009: • Growth of specialized reference Wikis • Sponsorships emerging Page: 017
Virtual Worlds • Virtual worlds provide computer-based simulated reality for one-on-one or group interaction • Examples: • Second Life • Massively multiplayer online games Key insights for 2009: • Remains to be seen if there will be any real adoption in 2009 • Will this move beyond a “game” experience Page: 018
Podcasts/Vodcasts • Popularity of iPOD/mobile device has created new medium of audio and video recordings available for syndicated download – Automatic downloads for new content • 8% of influentials downloaded at least one podcast in July 2008 • Expectation of regular broadcasting schedule with online archive Key insight for 2009: • Shorter, tighter content updated more frequently via WiFi Page: 019
Video and Photo Sharing • Spectacular growth of online video and photo sharing • 30% of influentials watched online video in 2008 and 21% shared photos via online sites Key insights for 2009 • Basic expectation that you will provide video and photos that meet my style/interest • Speech-to-text and video search engines becoming reality Sources: Universal Mccann International Social Media Research Wave 3, January 2008; Ipsos Public Affairs, MRI Research Page: 020
Widgets • Piece of code that can be simply and easily installed on web sites without additional coding • 23% of social network users have installed a widget • 18% of bloggers have installed applications in their blog templates Key insights for 2009: • Interaction within widget as complete brand and message experience , without site visit • Minimal time and experience to create widgets Source: Universal Mccann International Social Media Research Wave 3, January 2008 Page: 021
Mobile Platform • At least one-half of the planet has a mobile phone. It could grow to surpass 100% of the planet, as many users have more than one handset. Key Insight for 2009: • Content will be created specifically for the mobile platform, not just adapted to the platform • GPS-based apps • Scannable advertising Page: 022
Search • People start their explorations with search • 49% use search every day • 12 billion searches in July 2008 • Little notice or use beyond the first page (maybe second) of search results • 2 different types: paid and “organic” search Source: ComScore July 2008 Page: 023
Search Engine Marketing “Organic” Search Paid Search (Pay per click) •Rapid Deployment Cost/ High Return Low •Long-Term results •Scalable •Targeted/Relevant Traffic •Real-time Results •Increased Brand Visibility •Pay for Performance •Better site •Micro Targeting Capabilities accessibility/usability 24
The death of display? • Is wildly exaggerated. • 51% of Internet users do NOT start the experience with search. • Increased average time on site metrics make display a branding must in any media mix. Source: ComScore July 2008 Page: 025
2009 Online Media Usage Profile Media Response Time of Day Event Online Action 8:00a Wake Up Display/Mobile 10:00a Catch Up Social/ Email 12:00p Browse Social/ Search/Display 2:00p Bored/research Social/ Search/Display 4:00p COB/Dinner Search/ Display/Mobile 8:00p Follow Up Email/Display Page: 026
Moving beyond the “click” • Navigate ads like web pages • In-Page Engagement with “edutainment” focus • Interaction tracking Page: 027
The “New” Online Advertising Landscape Social Networks -Current US advertising spend $73MM - 20% increase in allocation of spend expected in 09 Blogs -Over 57 million Americans read blogs every day -Blog readers average 23 hours online a week Digital Billboards -Out-of-home (ooh) is the 2nd fastest growing segment behind search. -Target relevant consumers close to purchase decisions/actions Google TV/ Radio - Buy online, display offline. Integrated campaign management. - Bidding model = Significantly cheaper than traditional placement. Page: 028
Email Marketing • What is it? • Sending emails to our current list • Sending emails to rented or purchased lists • Sponsoring or including ads or content in 3rd party emails • Use list broker to examine rental/purchase opportunities • Email ad spending is expected to jump 37% in the next 3 years, from $492 mil to $6771 1Source eMarketer, Social Media and E-Mail Spending to Rise Page: 029
Email Marketing (continued) Advantages • Precise targeting • Granular activity measurement • Opportunity to push content • Sign up new subscribers and encourage action Disadvantages • Calculating ROI • Substantial list turnover • Can’t control content when advertise on 3rd party emails • Rented or purchased lists may not contain “good leads” Page: 030
Four Features Worth Your Attention Page: 031
Final Word…. – We must catch up with our customers. Our customers are adapting emerging technology and becoming influence leaders, we need them to help us with our marketing. They must trust us and feel connected to our brands like never before. – While 2009 will continue to be a tough year for business, those that evolve and embrace new distribution channels and emerging technology will thrive. Page: 032
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