2007safconvention thorp verdict in biofuels boom 1

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Information about 2007safconvention thorp verdict in biofuels boom 1

Published on February 13, 2008

Author: Soffia

Source: authorstream.com

Slide1:  The Verdict Is In: Biofuels Boom by Ben Thorp Key Drivers Include:  Key Drivers Include Federal Energy Council Report (increased demand exceeds new discovery rate) Senate proposal is 36 BILLION gallons of renewable fuel (only 15 is corn ethanol) New technologies improve economics A series of new independent forecasts (one example to follow) Federal Energy Council:  Federal Energy Council It started with a simple question by Samuel Bodman, Energy Secretary: "What does the future hold for oil and natural gas supply?“ The query was made to Lee Raymond, head of the National Petroleum Council, a Federal advisory group representing the oil industry. After nearly two years, Raymond has finally delivered his answer. The result is a colossal 476-page study that involved 350 participants, suggestions from over 1,000 people and submissions by 19 foreign governments Banc of America Ethanol Forecast (gallons in billions):  Banc of America Ethanol Forecast (gallons in billions) Alternative Energy report by Eric K. Brown Source: Renewable Fuels Association, National Biofuels Board, Banc of America Securities LLC estimates Implications:  Implications Corn-based ethanol becomes a mature market soon. Cellulosic ethanol becomes the growth market. Together, they do not meet the renewable fuel needs; so other biofuels are needed. Top commercial and economic candidates include “Fischer-Tropsch” liquids, biodiesel and biogasoline. Key Definitions:  Key Definitions Bioenergy is the production of steam and power from biomass. Conventional Bioenergy is typically done with solid fuel boilers and produces steam (and some power from that steam). Modern Bioenergy projects use technology like gasification which allows displacement of the most expensive fuels, like natural gas. Biorefinery is a facility that uses distillation, cracking or chemical separation to export energy from the facility. Key Definitions:  Key Definitions The current DOE strategy defines two technology platforms: 1. Thermal Platform 2. Sugar Platform There is a third: 3: Chemical Platform Exactly What is a Biorefinery?:  Exactly What is a Biorefinery? “Cartoon like” drawings are used for the public. Biorefineries will be different as they will have have specific processes with specific products. There are at least 12 distinct pathways that are critically different. Integrated Bioenergy Plant for Ethanol, Electricity and Heat Production:  2008-02-12/9 Sune Wännström Integrated Bioenergy Plant for Ethanol, Electricity and Heat Production 2003-08-14/LN Heat for ~40.000 houses (15.000 kWh per house) Electricity for ~50.000 households (5.000 kWh/household) 300.000 ton DS 50.000 ton DS 90.000 ton DS Ethanol ~ 80.000 cars (6 l/100 km) Energy efficiency ~ 70% CO2 efficiency>90% Bio-pellets Bio-gas Steam, Water, By-products Exactly What is a Biorefinery?:  Exactly What is a Biorefinery? Lets start with 2 simple diagrams to define the start and end points in pulp and paper. Next, look at the 12 current pathways where hardware on the ground or at least proposed commercial facilities (there will be more pathways in the future). Slide11:  Logs/Fiber Chemicals Energy Kraft Mill Pulp/Paper Emissions Current Mill Slide12:  Future Mill Logs/Fiber Chemicals Regional Biomass Forest Biorefinery Significantly Reduced Emissions Pulp/Paper Green Power OR Biodiesel Ethanol Fuel Feedstock Chemicals Slide13:  4 Biorefinery Building Blocks (Process Pathways) 1 & 2 3 & 4 5 6 or or Slide14:  3 Biorefinery Building Blocks (Process Pathways) 7 8 9 Slide15:  2 Biorefinery Building Blocks (Process Pathways) 10 11 or 1 Biorefinery Building Block:  1 Biorefinery Building Block Sugar 5 (Hemicellulose) Woody Biomass Separation Pure Lignin Fermentation and The Short-Term Winners Will Be::  The Short-Term Winners Will Be: The simpler processes where valuable co-products are produced, like pathways 1, 7 and 12. Because a yield of 80 gpt and a sales price of $2.00 per gallon gives a revenue stream of $160 per BD ton biomass, which has little/no profit margin. The profit only comes when there is another high value product like cellulose, lignin or salable recovered heat that offsets expensive fossil fuel. Pathways 1, 7 and 12 have one of these co-products. The Long-Term Winners Will Be::  The Long-Term Winners Will Be: Chemical technologies which are just emerging and are proprietary. Yields can be 120 ++ gpt. For one example see www.Virent.com and Cleverly integrated short term winners and There will be others, but they will likely be “niche” solutions. Historical Perspective:  Historical Perspective Corn, potato, juniper and other “bio-based” alcohols have been produced from various biomass for centuries. The price for “adult beverages” has supported the costly processes. Even cellulosic ethanol has been COMMERCIALLY available from as early as 1909. Al Gore cannot take credit for this. Before the last energy crunch “Cellulosic Ethanol” was made in at least a half-dozen places. Slide20:  2008-02-12/20 Sune Wännström 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1909 The first sulphite ethanol plant 1874 Sulphite pulp Cellulose Ethanol (sugar platform) 1925 (Lättbentyl, 75% EtOH) 1941 Domsjö, Örnsköldsvik Organic synthesis, long before the petrochemical industry ~2000 Bellingham idled 2005 Modern Mills proposed 1945 34 factories in Sweden produced 80 000 m3 EtOH Sulfite Mills with Biorefinery Capability (sugar platform):  Sulfite Mills with Biorefinery Capability (sugar platform) GP, Bellingham, USA (1945 to ~2000) Tembec, Temiscaming, Canada Borregard, Lingo-Tech, Norway Borregard, Ligno-Tech, South Africa Domsjo, Sweden Nippon Specialty Chemical, Japan Flambeau River, Hardwood Line, USA Thermal Platform Historical, Commercial Summary:  Thermal Platform Historical, Commercial Summary Black Liquor Gasification: Weyerhaeuser, New Bern, NC, USA Norampac, Trenton, Canada Biomass for total thermal energy in NA: Jackson Paper, Sylva, NC Grays Harbor, Hoquiam, WA Catalyst, Port Alberni, Canada Slide23:  In North America the technology development and implementation pathway of independent verses large corporations has been markedly different. Key Projects Started Without DOE $:  Key Projects Started Without DOE $ Coastal Paper, Wiggins, MS - Biomass gasification-syngas to steam (modern BioEnergy project) Weyerhaeuser, Kamloops, Canada - Biomass gasification with Syngas to the lime kiln (also modern BioEnergy) P&W, Claiborne, AL, USA (Biodiesel from soybean oil, a BioRefinery with mill synergies) KL Process, Wyoming USA (1.5 million gpy ethanol from Ponderosa Pine Biomass, maybe the first modern commercial biorefinery) Key Projects Proposed:  Key Projects Proposed Flambeau River BioFuels, WI, USA (Demo plant that produces 6 million gpy of FT liquid @~$1.20/g + 4.5 MW renewable energy from unmerchantable biomass) Catalyst Renewables, NY, USA (Demo funded by NY State to produce 130 thousand gpy cellulosic ethanol by water extraction of hemicellulose from biomass prior to a solid fuel boiler which produces steam and power) Colusa Biomass, CA, USA (12.5 million gpy cellulosic ethanol from rice straw from Sacramento Valley via enzymatic hydrolysis followed by fermentation) Key Projects Proposed (cont):  Key Projects Proposed (cont) Potlatch, McGhee, AR, USA (34 million gpy of FT liquid + 126 Trillion BTUpy steam + 118 Trillion BTUpy tail gas from ~2,000 tpd unmerchantable biomass) Florida Crystals, FL, USA (A demo/development plant funded by the Univ of FL to produce 1 to 2 million gpy of cellulosic ethanol from biomass) Perhaps 70 responses to the latest DOE solicitation, which closed August 14, 2007. Slide27:  SUMMARY of the 6 DOE Projects Previously Selected Current Biorefinery Activities:  Current Biorefinery Activities Current Biorefinery Activities (continued):  Current Biorefinery Activities (continued) Current Biorefinery Activities (continued):  Current Biorefinery Activities (continued) Current Biorefinery Activities (continued):  Current Biorefinery Activities (continued) Current Biorefinery Activities (continued):  Current Biorefinery Activities (continued) Current Biorefinery Activities (continued):  Current Biorefinery Activities (continued) Comparison of Some Projects (yield should include all BTUs but that data is not yet available):  Comparison of Some Projects (yield should include all BTUs but that data is not yet available) Macro Conclusion:  Macro Conclusion World-wide consumption is growing faster than NEW petroleum capacity can be added. The US has proposed renewable fuel standards that are beyond corn-based ethanol. Cellusoic Ethanol will be the next “boom” segment of our fuels economy. The need for renewable fuels will generate opportunities for other biofuels like Fischer-Tropsch liquids, biodiesel, and biogasoline. Micro Conclusion:  Micro Conclusion Short-term winners will be those bioactivities that cost effectively produce co-products and/or sell their recoverable heat to “steam hosts”. Long-term winners are those who use chemical processes that allow direct conversion of biomass to biofuels. Long-term winners will include short-term winners that effectively integrate processes. Slide37:  ??Q & A?? bathorp@comcast.net The Only Known Solution:  The Only Known Solution Capitalizing on biorefinery opportunities may be the only way to avoid massive shutdown and loss of pulp and paper facilities in North America. Key Questions:  Key Questions Has pulp and paper industry research been directed at areas that will be valued by society such as biomass to fuels? Can, and will, others now take a technical and commercial lead in areas valued by society? What actions are required for the pulp and paper industry to maintain a leadership role? Leadership:  Leadership Any notion that there are not any technologies worthy of investment has been dispelled by the DOE Section 932 awards. Any notion that companies are unwilling to take large capital risk is also dispelled. Leadership:  Leadership Non-pulp and paper industry players now have an opportunity to develop both the technology and commercial skill for the forest biorefinery on a plant scale. The amount of new technical information is doubling every two years; therefore, catch-up can be accelerated. Serious Consequences:  Serious Consequences Continuation of business as usual, will surely mean loss of leadership, faster decline and the closure of many more mills. The full impact will include infrastructure such as forest management, sawmills, building products and suppliers. This can be devastating to employment, rural community health and healthy forests. A recent prediction by one notable columnist: “My forecast for pulpmaking in Finland, in particular, is that it is doomed”. We are dealing with serious consequences. What is Missing in North America?:  What is Missing in North America? The vision and will to boldly seize the opportunity, and The fortitude not to accept excuses for poor performance of demonstrations. In today’s world, these missing ingredients make the pulp and paper industry “non-competitive”. All Is Not Yet Lost . . .:  All Is Not Yet Lost . . . The smaller companies are looking for opportunities within their resource constraint. Weyerhaeuser has announced a joint venture with Chevron.

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