Published on November 23, 2007
The hydrological cycle in the Amazon –the economic value of water: The hydrological cycle in the Amazon – the economic value of water Anita Wreford Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Background: Background PhD in agricultural economics Research in environmental and agricultural issues in New Zealand Currently working on climate change research ADAM project (adaptation and mitigation strategies for Europe) Valuing the cost of extreme weather events Adaptation to climate change Impact of climate change on agriculture The situation in Brazil: The situation in Brazil Threat to forests from soy-bean plantations Rainforest produces water Used by agricultural producers throughout Brazil Used as energy source Deforestation likely to lead to reduced rainfall Where? Locally, regionally, globally? How much? Over what time frame? Non-linear changes/thresholds? Changing climate likely to exacerbate this Against a backdrop of changing climate…: Against a backdrop of changing climate… Amazon drought 2005 Inter-tropical glaciers in Latin America likely to disappear – leading to reduced water availability and hydropower generation Larger rainfall anomalies Synergistic effects of both land-use change and climate changes likely to lead to replacement of tropical forest by savannas Feedbacks from deforestation releasing carbon thereby exacerbating climate change Mitigation through avoided deforestation? Projected temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) changes for Amazon region. Ranges of values encompass30 estimates from seven global climate models and the four main SRES scenarios (IPCC 2007): Projected temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) changes for Amazon region. Ranges of values encompass 30 estimates from seven global climate models and the four main SRES scenarios (IPCC 2007) Water valuation - some questions…: Water valuation - some questions… What is the water used for? What is the value of the production using this water? (financial and social) How would this be affected by the loss/reduction in water? What would be the alternatives if rainfall from the Amazon was reduced – Irrigation? Alternative land use? Alternative crops? What would the cost of the alternatives be? What are the social implications of reduced rainfall? Global implications? How could a market be created to value the forest as a provider or water?