Published on March 20, 2014
Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index shed around 31 points (-0.27%) and closed the session below the 11,400.0 psychological level. The index developed a Doji candle pattern on Tuesday and reversed yesterday, thus confirming a trend reversal pattern. We believe the bears may continue to dominate the bulls and pull the index lower to test 11,338.41 as long as it trades below 11,400.0. Meanwhile, the index needs to reclaim the 11,400.0 level in order to continue its advance. Widam Food Co.: Short-Term – Upmove WDAM continued to move higher yesterday after witnessing a good rally on Tuesday. Moreover, the stock has been gradually gaining strength since clearing the QR42.30 level. We believe the stock may continue advancing toward QR47.80 as long as it trades above the support of QR44.50. However, any dip below this level may halt its upmove. Meanwhile, both the indicators are providing bullish signals, thus supporting our positive technical outlook for the stock. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index continued its relentless run and tagged another new all-time high of 3,497.39, surpassing its previous best of 3,490.49 but later trimmed its gains to close at 3,481.83. This action revealed that the index may consolidate or decline as buyers backed away from a higher price. The RSI is stalling from the rising mode indicating that the index may correct before its next upmove. The index may continue to witness a bullish run if it closes above 3,497.39. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Downmove GISS developed a shooting star candle pattern on Tuesday, which often leads to either consolidation or decline. Moreover, the stock declined yesterday, thus providing a confirmation of this trend reversal pattern. Additionally, the RSI has a bearish divergence indicating that the stock may correct from the current level. We believe the stock could drift down further and test QR78.80. Any sustained weakness below this level may pull the stock to test QR75.20. Doha Bank: Short-Term – Breakout DHBK gained 3.67% and breached its resistances of QR57.40 and QR58.20 in a single swoop after registering losses over the past few weeks. Meanwhile, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating a likely continuation of this upmove. The recent price action and spike in volumes are indicating the underlying strength supporting this move. We believe the stock may now march toward QR60.0. Further, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence. Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Downmove QIGD witnessed a gap-up opening and momentarily moved above the resistance of QR56.20, but later retreated and developed a shooting star candle pattern. This pattern usually signifies exhaustion on the part of buyers and often leads to trend reversal. We believe the stock may drift down and test its immediate support of QR54.0. The stock may weaken further if it moves below this level and test QR52.40. However, a close above QR56.20 may lead to an upmove.
Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,388.14 DOWN UP 11,338.41 11,300.00 11,400.00 11,484.45 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,481.83 UP UP 3,458.51 3,432.26 3,497.39 3,530.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 38.45 FLAT UP 38.00 36.55 39.10 40.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 61.60 DOWN UP 60.50 59.30 61.67 62.75 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 59.30 DOWN DOWN 58.20 57.40 60.00 62.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 72.60 DOWN DOWN 71.80 70.50 74.10 75.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 71.50 DOWN UP 70.30 69.40 71.50 72.80 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 64.00 DOWN UP 62.64 60.96 64.00 66.90 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 28.20 DOWN DOWN 28.00 27.52 29.15 29.95 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)* 46.25 UP DOWN 44.50 43.20 47.80 48.75 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 161.50 UP UP 159.00 154.90 164.00 165.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 178.50 DOWN DOWN 175.00 173.00 180.00 181.40 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 170.70 DOWN UP 168.00 165.36 174.36 176.64 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 79.50 UP UP 78.80 75.20 80.00 81.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 55.30 UP DOWN 54.00 52.40 56.20 58.00 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 35.30 UP UP 34.80 34.20 36.30 37.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.92 DOWN DOWN 21.70 21.50 22.00 22.20 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 138.80 DOWN DOWN 138.50 136.00 139.90 141.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 12.20 UP UP 12.09 11.90 12.40 12.66 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.84 DOWN DOWN 19.80 19.50 20.26 20.50 Milaha (QNNS QD) 92.70 DOWN UP 91.30 90.00 95.10 96.50
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