SMC Global Commodity Daily Report

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Information about SMC Global Commodity Daily Report

Published on March 6, 2014

Author: moneywisebewise



This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 6th March, 2014 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Mar) 20-Mar-14 4229.00 Up 25.01.14 3815.00 4050.00 Soy Bean (Apr) 18-Apr-14 4224.50 Up 23.01.14 3758.50 4040.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Mar) 20-Mar-14 735.95 Up 10.02.14 687.00 715.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Apr) 18-Apr-14 735.05 Up 10.02.14 681.95 715.00 RM seeds (Apr) 18-Apr-14 3569.00 Up 01.03.14 3604.00 3480.00 RM seeds (May) 20-May-14 3611.00 Up 01.03.14 3635.00 3520.00 Turmeric (Apr) 18-Apr-14 7106.00 Down 24.02.14 6882.00 7250.00 Turmeric (May) 20-May-14 7148.00 Down 24.02.14 6916.00 7300.00 Jeera (Mar) 20-Mar-14 11325.00 Down 02.12.13 12770.00 12000.00 Jeera (Apr) 18-Apr-14 11320.00 Down 02.12.13 12922.50 11900.00 Chana (Apr) 18-Apr-14 3220.00 Up 05.03.14 3220.00 3050.00 Chana (May) 20-May-14 3256.00 Up 05.03.14 3256.00 3080.00 Cocud (Mar) 20-Mar-14 1555.00 Down 31.01.14 1560.00 1580.00 Cocud (Apr) 18-Apr-14 1590.00 Down 31.01.14 1529.00 1610.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Mar) 15-Mar-14 741.30 Down 03.03.14 777.90 780.00 Cardamom (Apr) 15-Apr-14 826.00 Down 03.03.14 811.30 840.00 Mentha Oil (Mar) 31-Mar-14 832.80 Up 04.03.14 823.70 790.00 Mentha Oil (Apr) 30-Apr-14 842.00 Up 04.03.14 833.60 800.00

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 05.03.2014) Silver (Mar) ($) 27-Mar-14 21.24 Up 18.02.14 21.90 20.40 Gold (Apr) ($) 28-Apr-14 1340.30 Up 24.01.14 1264.30 1310.00 Crude Oil (Apr) ($) 20-Mar-14 101.45 Up 22.01.14 96.73 99.00 Natural Gas (Apr) ($) 27-Mar-14 4.52 Up 22.01.14 4.27 4.50 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 05.03.2014) Silver (May) 5-May-14 47048.00 Up 14.02.14 46613.00 45500.00 Gold (Apr) 5-Apr-14 30158.00 Up 24.01.14 29519.00 29600.00 Crude Oil (Mar) 19-Mar-14 6274.00 Sideways 05.03.14 6274.00 - Natural Gas (Mar) 26-Mar-14 280.00 Down 24.02.14 295.80 310.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 05.03.2014) Copper (Apr) 30-Apr-14 438.90 Down 05.02.14 441.40 448.00 Aluminum (Mar) 31-Mar-14 107.40 Sideways 04.03.14 108.05 - Zinc (Mar) 31-Mar-14 130.35 Up 18.02.14 129.20 125.00 Lead (Mar) 31-Mar-14 130.20 Down 09.01.14 129.80 134.00 Nickel (Mar) 31-Mar-14 934.00 Up 14.01.14 882.00 890.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 05.03.2014) Copper 3 Months 7030.00 Sideways 18.02.14 7195.00 - Aluminum 3 Months 1775.00 Sideways 20.02.14 1772.00 - Zinc 3 Months 2116.00 Up 19.12.13 1989.50 1940.00 Lead 3 Months 2136.50 Down 05.02.14 2097.00 2150.00 Nickel 3 Months 15270.00 Up 18.02.14 14460.00 14500.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.

Market Update (Agro) Spices: Turmeric futures (Apr) is likely to remain below 7250 levels. Arrivals of quality turmeric increased in Erode markets as upcountry orders emerged. Arrivals of turmeric in the Regulated Market Committee and Erode Cooperative Marketing Society are on the rise as also the sales. Fine variety hybrid finger turmeric arrived for sale and buyers purchased all the 300 bags at a higher price. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association sales yard, the finger variety was sold at Rs.4,600-6,769 a quintal; the root variety Rs.4,676-6,499. Cardamom futures (Apr) is expected to take support above 805 levels & trade with an upside bias. Good capsules of 7mm and above were fetching Rs.775 a kg and above, while 8mm bold was traded at Rs.850-875 a kg. Non-availability of good quality material from Guatemala is the reason for export enquiries. During the current season from August 1, arrivals are 15,638 tonnes against 8,849 tonnes during the same period a year ago. Sales are 15,241 tonnes against 8,389 tonnes. Jeera futures (Mar) would possibly trade with a bearish bias & remain below 11500 levels. Latest data indicates that the acreage under Jeera stands at 397,300 hectares in Gujarat- the prominent producing state. This is up nearly 50% compared to last year. Oilseeds: Oilseeds complex are likely to trade range bound. On the international market, Chicago May soybeans rose 13-3/4 U.S. cents to close at US$14.23 per bushel. Scattered rains in Argentina in recent days added to worries about moisture-related fungi that have threatened soy crops after an unusually wet February, leaving farmers to wait for a much-needed dry spell expected to begin next week. The agriculture ministry has yet to publish 2013/14 soy output estimates. On the contrary, private exporters reported the cancellation of 245,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans sold earlier to China for delivery in the 2013/14 marketing year, which started on Sept. 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday. Malaysian palm oil futures hit a 17-month high on Wednesday, supported by expectations that the dry weather will hurt Southeast Asian production. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release data on Malaysia's end-February palm oil stocks, exports and production on March 10. Other Commodities: Sugar futures (Apr) is likely to remain steady taking support above 2845 levels. Spot sugar prices on the Vashi wholesale market increased further by Rs.5-10 a quintal for S-grade, while it ruled steady for M-grade on Wednesday as parity remained higher with producers holding back from selling at lower rates. Prices rose by Rs.30-40 on the spot, while they were up Rs.10-20 at higher level. Arrivals at the Vashi market continued at about 60- 61 truckloads (of 100 bags each) and the local dispatches were 59-60 loads. Chana futures (Apr) is likely to test 3250 levels. At the spot market, pulses and pulse seeds were mixed with chana ruling stable. Bargain buying was seen in the counter due to possibility of some crop damage in northern India coupled with fresh procurement by government agencies in major producing states. Amid reports of damage to the crop due to recent rains and snowfall in Madhya Pradesh, chana prices have been witnessing a bullish trend for the past few days with prices going up. Maize futures (Mar) is likely to witness some upside movement taking support above 1225 levels. At the spot markets, local Maize prices recovered today on some demand by feed millers. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullions counter may remain sideways tracking mixed international cues as investors will eye the US nonfarm payroll data tomorrow. Gold can move in range of 29900-30300 while silver can hover in range of 46500-47500 in MCX. Gold traded below the highest level in more than four months as investors weighed the crisis in Ukraine against the outlook for the U.S. economy and slower physical purchases in China, the world’s largest consumer. Russian forces occupied the Ukrainian region of Crimea, stoking concern that there may be military conflict between the states. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week the central bank is “open to reconsidering” the pace of cutbacks in asset purchases should the economy weaken. The Fed, which next meets March 18-19, announced a $10 billion reduction to bond buying at each of its past two meetings, leaving purchases at $65 billion. Base Metals: Base metals may trade sideways as US factory order data today will given further direction. Copper may trade in range of 435-442 while Lead may move in range of 129.50-132. Aluminum may move in range of 106-108. Nickel may move in range of 925-940 in MCX. Copper prices rose to a one-week high on Wednesday, as China’s National People’s Congress annual meeting kicked off earlier in the day. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy. The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days, while the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity. Energy: Crude oil futures may continue to tad lower on selling pressure as it can move in range of 6230-6330 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate fell for a third day after U.S. government data showed distillate and crude stockpiles increased in the world’s biggest oil consumer. Crude stockpiles gained for a seventh week while supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, slid to the lowest level in two years with the opening of a new pipeline. Stockpiles at Cushing, the nation’s largest oil-storage center and the delivery point for New York-traded contracts, slid by 2.66 million barrels to 32.1 million, the EIA reported. TransCanada Corp. began moving crude from the hub to the Texas Gulf Coast in January via the southern portion of its Keystone XL pipeline. Weekly inventory data will give further direction to the natural gas futures. Overall it can move in range of 275-288 in MCX.

TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST 16:30 16:30 18:15 19:00 Economic releases EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision USD Non-Farm Productivity Importance Expected Previous Low 0.90% -0.50% Medium 7.50% 6.00% High 0.25% 0.25% Low 2.50% 3.20% Low -0.80% -1.60% 19:00 USD Unit Labor Costs 19:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims Medium 338K 348K 19:00 USD Continuing Claims Medium 2980K 2964K 20:30 USD Factory Orders Medium -0.50% -1.50% 21:00 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Low -95 Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Favourable Favourable Neutral Neutral Favourable Favourable Neutral Favourable Natural gas Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 683 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Upadhyay Research Associate Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.

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