13 Boylan GASIPmodeling

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Published on February 20, 2008

Author: Veronica1

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8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 Modeling to Support the Georgia SIP:  8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 Modeling to Support the Georgia SIP James Boylan, Amit Marmur, Maudood Khan, and Dan Cohan VISTAS Joint Work Group Meeting Durham, NC September 23, 2005 Slide2:  Attainment Status in Georgia Ozone non-attainment areas PM2.5 non-attainment areas Slide3:  Air Quality in Atlanta Ozone 4th highest values (1997-2004) Design value (JST): 17.4 g/m3 PM2.5 composition (2001-2003) VISTAS 12 km Modeling:  VISTAS 12 km Modeling Ozone in Atlanta (May):  Ozone in Atlanta (May) Ozone in Atlanta (June):  Ozone in Atlanta (June) Ozone in Atlanta (July):  Ozone in Atlanta (July) Ozone in Atlanta (August):  Ozone in Atlanta (August) Ozone in Atlanta (September):  Ozone in Atlanta (September) Future Ozone Design Values:  Future Ozone Design Values Calculated for all sites in Georgia 2002 and 2009 BaseD emissions 5-year weighted Design Values RRF cut-off of 85 ppb when > 10 days Used maximum value in 3 x 3 matrix Future Ozone Design Values:  Future Ozone Design Values *Need ozone buffer below 85 ppb (e.g., 4 ppb in Atlanta) Georgia EPD Modeling:  Georgia EPD Modeling Slide13:  VISTAS 12 km ALGA 12 km GA 4 km Episode Selection:  Episode Selection CART (Classification And Regression Tree) analysis Ozone – Atlanta, Macon, Chattanooga, Augusta, Columbus PM2.5 – Atlanta, Macon, Chattanooga Summer Episode: May 25 - June 25, 2002 Winter Episode: Nov 19 - Dec 19, 2002 Slide15:  Maximum 8-Hour Ozone Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 2002 2002 emissions Max 8-hour O3 on June 12, 2002 2009 emissions Slide16:  Episode Average PM2.5 Episode average PM2.5 concentration 2002 emissions Episode average PM2.5 concentration 2009 emissions Regional Sensitivities:  Regional Sensitivities Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (mg/m3) 10% Emission Reductions NOx, VOCs, SO2, NH3, and primary carbon 12-km ALGA domain 4-km for summertime VOCs (?) Emission Regions Atlanta, Macon, Columbus, Chattanooga, Athens, Floyd County Slide18:  NOx and VOCs in Atlanta Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic NOx in the Atlanta area on June 12, 2002 Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic VOC in the Atlanta area on June 12, 2002 Slide19:  NOx and VOCs in Macon Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic NOx in the Macon area on June 13, 2002 Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic VOC in the Macon area on June 13, 2002 Slide20:  Carbon and SO2 in Atlanta Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic primary carbon in the Atlanta area; episode average Sensitivity to a 10% reduction in non-power plant anthropogenic SO2 in the Atlanta area; episode average Point Source Sensitivities:  Point Source Sensitivities Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM2.5 (mg/m3) SCR (NOx) and Scrubber (SO2) Reductions 12-km ALGA domain Slide22:  EGU Controls: Ozone Sensitivity to a 68% reduction in NOx (2 SCRs) from Plant McDonough on June 12, 2002 Sensitivity to a 53% reduction in NOx (4 SCRs) from Plant Scherer on June 3, 2002 Slide23:  EGU Controls: PM2.5 Sensitivity to a 95% reduction in SO2 (4 scrubbers) and a 68% reduction in NOx (4 SCRs) from Plant Scherer; episode average Sensitivity to a 88% reduction in SO2 (2 scrubbers) from Plant Bowen; episode average Slide24:  Branch (34%) Hammond (68%) McDonough (68%) Scherer (63%) Yates (33%) High Ozone Day Slide25:  Episode Average PM2.5 Bowen (88%, NA) Branch (95%,34%) Hammond (95%,68%) McDonough (95%,68%) Scherer (95%,63%) Wansley ( 87%, NA) Yates (63%,33%) Slide26:  Regional Sensitivities Slide27:  Point Source Sensitivities Slide28:  Current & Future Modeling Regional and Point Emission Sensitivities Winter Episode (ALGA 12 km) Generate and Apply CART Weights Seasonal ozone and annual PM2.5 responses 4 km Ozone Sensitivities (?) Annual and Seasonal Control Simulations ALGA 36 km grid for regional haze ALGA 12 km grid for PM2.5 GA 4 km grid for ozone Jim Boylan Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA 30354 james_boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851:  Jim Boylan Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA 30354 james_boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851 Contact Information

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