Published on March 12, 2014
Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index snapped its three-day winning streak and plunged around 201 points (-1.72%) to close at 11,509.16. The index witnessed a gap-down opening and breached its important supports of the 11,700.0, 21-day moving average and 11,520.55 levels in a single swoop, caving under sustained selling pressure. Meanwhile, the index needs to reclaim 11,520.55 in order to keep its upmove intact, or else it may result in bearish implications. Doha Bank: Short-Term – Downmove DHBK continued its decline yesterday and penetrated below the support of QR60.0 on the back of large volumes. Moreover, the stock has been experiencing sustained selling pressure over the past few days and is underperforming. With both the momentum indicators in downtrend mode, DHBK’s preferred direction seems to be on the downside. We believe the stock may drift down further and test QR58.20, followed by QR57.40 where it may get buying support. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index extended its rally for the fourth consecutive session and tagged a new all-time high of 3,451.57, but later trimmed its gains on the back of profit-booking. This action revealed that the index may be due for a consolidation or decline after witnessing a strong rally, as buyers backed away from higher prices. Meanwhile, the index has immediate support near 3,410.0. However, the index may continue its rally and tag new highs if it moves above the 3,451.57 level. Widam Food Co.: Short-Term – Upmove WDAM breached the resistance of the ascending triangle at QR42.30. Notably, volumes were also large on the breakout which indicates that potential buyers are stepping in. Moreover, the stock has been gradually moving up over the past few days and is gaining strength after finding support near QR40.35. We believe the stock may extend its upmove and test QR44.50. The RSI is moving up and the MACD is about to cross the signal line into the positive territory. Milaha: Short-Term – Downmove QNNS dipped below the supports of the 21-day moving average and QR93.0 after developing a Doji candle pattern on Monday, thus confirming the reversal pattern. Moreover, the RSI and the MACD lines are providing bearish signals indicating the weakness to continue. With volumes picking up on the decline, the stock may continue its downmove and test its immediate support of QR91.30. However, a close above QR93.0 may attract buying interest. National Leasing Holding Co.: Short-Term – Upmove NLCS surpassed the stiff resistance of the descending trendline, which had restricted its bullish move in the past and moved above the QR28.50 level. We believe if the stock manages to cling onto this level, it may proceed toward its immediate resistance of QR29.15, which is also in proximity to the 21-day moving average. Any move above this level may spark additional buying interest and push the stock toward QR29.95. Both the indicators are pointing higher.
Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,509.16 DOWN UP 11,484.45 11,400.00 11,520.55 11,660.50 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,437.26 UP UP 3,409.71 3,382.68 3,451.57 3,480.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 38.70 FLAT UP 38.00 36.55 39.10 40.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 76.40 UP UP 76.40 75.90 77.50 78.00 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 58.40 DOWN DOWN 58.20 57.40 60.00 62.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 75.50 DOWN FLAT 75.00 74.10 76.00 77.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 77.30 UP UP 75.80 74.40 77.30 78.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 63.50 DOWN UP 62.56 60.96 64.00 66.90 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)* 28.70 DOWN DOWN 28.50 28.00 29.15 29.95 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)* 43.30 DOWN DOWN 42.30 41.90 44.50 45.90 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 162.00 UP UP 159.00 154.90 164.00 165.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 182.00 DOWN UP 180.00 178.30 182.50 185.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 171.00 UP UP 170.91 168.00 174.36 176.64 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 93.50 UP UP 91.80 88.00 94.00 96.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 49.30 UP DOWN 47.70 45.65 49.75 52.40 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 32.90 UP UP 32.00 31.60 33.25 34.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.91 DOWN DOWN 21.70 21.50 22.00 22.50 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 139.90 DOWN DOWN 139.90 138.50 141.00 143.50 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 11.90 DOWN UP 11.60 11.44 12.09 12.40 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 21.50 DOWN UP 20.90 20.50 21.83 22.19 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 92.50 DOWN UP 91.30 90.00 93.00 95.10
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