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Published on March 16, 2008

Author: Vincenza

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Growth Trends and Planning Solutions for Livable Places:  Growth Trends and Planning Solutions for Livable Places Joseph Carreras Southern California Association of Governments November 30, 2001 The 1939 Inter-regional Highways Vision:  The 1939 Inter-regional Highways Vision “Who can say what new horizons lie before us if we but have the initiative and imagination to penetrate them--new economic horizons-new social horizons-new horizons in many fields, leading to new benefits for everyone, everywhere.” General Motors’ Futurama, 1939 New York World’s Fair The Post War Sprawl Era Begins:  The Post War Sprawl Era Begins 1950, 1 in 14 Americans live in California Source: New York Times, U.S. Census The West and South are the Focus of National Growth :  The West and South are the Focus of National Growth 2000, 1 in 8 Americans live in California LA Consolidated Metro Area Rank - Highest Growth, Highest Density Level, Worst Smog, Tenth worst commute time:  LA Consolidated Metro Area Rank - Highest Growth, Highest Density Level, Worst Smog, Tenth worst commute time 269,257 295,526 363,697 786,051 881,020 917,720 938,440 1,184,519 1,650,216 1,842,116 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 8. Detroit 6. Philadelphia 7. Boston 5. San Francisco 4. Washington 3. Chicago 10. Houston 9. Dallas 1. New York 2. Los Angeles 1990 to 2000 population gain Do We Plan or Let the Chips Fall Where They May?:  Do We Plan or Let the Chips Fall Where They May? In 2000, 42% of Residents of the SCAG Region Live Outside Los Angeles County Slide7:  By 2025, the Region will Add 6 million people to its 2000 Shape Slide11:  Source: California Department of Finance Growth Trends Over the Next 25 Years in Southern California:  Growth Trends Over the Next 25 Years in Southern California Add 6 million people or as many as over the last ¼ century Growth is inevitable and may equal two cities the size of Chicago Hispanics will make up 85% of net growth, Asians the remainder Dependent population rises from just under 40% of past growth to over 60% of future growth Nearly 2 million more elderly and 2 million more youth under 20 years of age Elderly portion of growth will be 3 times higher than in the past, youth 20% higher Consequently, expect a: Shrinking middle age group, shrinking middle class (?), shrinking economy (?) Sharp rise in transit dependent population and elderly housing demand Aging Baby Boomers and Young Hispanics :  Aging Baby Boomers and Young Hispanics Will Baby Boomers age in Place? What are their next moves? Young Hispanics, where will they seek apartments and starter homes? Will immigrants continue to cram into crowded quarters as they come to the region for jobs? Citizen participation and voting on land use decisions may be affected by different lifestyle and housing needs between aging Baby Boomers and young Hispanics. How do we assure social equity goal achievement? Are mixed use developments an emerging trend driven by new lifestyle demands of empty-nest boomers in their mid 50s? Regional Livability Footprint:  Regional Livability Footprint Slide17:  Affordability Index Median Home Prices Many seek affordable, starter homes in the Inland Valley and desert areas. Slide18:  Production Solutions Include Fiscal/Tax Incentives, Developer Inducements and Public Education About Housing Needs Villa Del Pueblo Los Angeles, CA This housing complex was designed to meet the housing needs of larger Hispanics families in Los Angeles. Photo Source: SCANPH A Model Multi-Family Housing Production Solution:  A Model Multi-Family Housing Production Solution Project Participants Century Housing City of Whittier Federal Home Loan Bank Housing Authority, County of LA HUD Home Investment Partnership Program J. Dreyfuss & Assoc., Inc. Killerfer Flammang Purtill Architects Lend Lease Real Estate Investments LINC Housing Corporation Vista Communities, Inc. Washington Mutual Bank Seasons at the Hoover Whittier, CA Multi-Family Historic Preservation Community Visioning -10 Examples :  Community Visioning -10 Examples 1. The City of Los Angeles: Several major showcase civic, mixed-used, cultural, transit-oriented, LA river, corridor and new-town initiatives across the city; 2. Pasadena’s Mixed use showcase development—Paseo Colorado along with old town; 3. Queensway Bay, Pine Street and Blue line transit plaza development in Long Beach; 4. Azusa’s Community Congress visioning project for the Monrovia Nursery and the Back to the Boulevard visioning effort in Whittier are achieving high civic participation goals in local planning; 5. Bold mixed-use projects from Alhambra’s Plaza on Main to the Valencia Town Center in Santa Clarita are garnering design awards; 6. The 3rd Street Pedestrian promenade flourishes in Santa Monica; 7. Brea’s New Downtown offers lofts, in-fill housing and mixed use redevelopment; 8. Anaheim’s new Disney Theme Park and Convention Center Expansion; 9. Santa Ana’s Nine block Artist Village; and 10.Cathedral City’s Downtown Revitalization in the Desert Mixed-use, Transit-oriented Development Hollywood & Highland:  Mixed-use, Transit-oriented Development Hollywood & Highland Redevelopment :  Redevelopment Chesterfield Square Chesterfield Square: Suburban Shopping Arrives in South Central LA:  Chesterfield Square: Suburban Shopping Arrives in South Central LA Amistad housing project Federal Empowerment Zone tax incentives State enterprise zone incentives City of Los Angeles incentives Redevelopment area Supported by: Brownfields :  Brownfields Crown Coach Site, LA City Coordinate Local Land Use With Future Growth Projection:  Coordinate Local Land Use With Future Growth Projection Planned land use is medium and high density... Slide26:  Coordinate Local Land Use With Future Growth Projection but existing land use is predominately low density. Create Mechanisms for Consensus and Dispute Resolution on Land Use Issues:  Create Mechanisms for Consensus and Dispute Resolution on Land Use Issues Regional Housing Needs Assessment and Housing Element reform Subregional Visioning efforts and Civic dialogue Monitor development and create benchmarks for success Multi-Family Housing Production:  Multi-Family Housing Production Promote Fiscal Incentives:  Promote Fiscal Incentives Promote inter-regional partnerships: 3 pilot programs in Southern California Promote job housing balance policies and social equity goals through smart growth Invest in infrastructure, including airports Workforce development Location Efficient Mortgage Demonstration with LEM Partners and FannieMae Commercial/Retail Viability is Shifting in Response to Regional Centers at Freeway Interchanges and Transit Stops so::  Commercial/Retail Viability is Shifting in Response to Regional Centers at Freeway Interchanges and Transit Stops so: Invest in citizen participation Promote local serving jobs downtown and on main street Avoid blight along commercial strips by using multifamily housing as a buffer between business nodes, establish gateways, use banners and streetscapes Use housing in weak commercial areas and mix with retail Beware of big signs on thin poles A Regional and State Compact On Growth:  A Regional and State Compact On Growth Connect consensus building, civic visioning initiatives, such as: Community urban village efforts and strategies Sub-area planning efforts from the SOAR initiatives in Ventura County to the Integrated Planning Process in Riverside County Regional visioning projects like USC’s Building A Sustainable Southern California and SCAG’s Growth Visioning for A Sustainable Region Adopt a state growth management strategy that supports other visioning efforts in California: Vision 2020 in San Diego Joint Venture Silicon Valley Bay Area Compact Solutions for Sustaining a Livable Region in a “Post Sprawl Era”:  Solutions for Sustaining a Livable Region in a “Post Sprawl Era” Community visioning and urban villages Redevelopment of Brownfields Coordinate local land use planning with growth projections to meet emerging life style choices Create mechanisms for consensus and dispute resolution on land use issues between communities and neighboring subregions. Promote fiscal incentives in California for encouraging job housing balance and better inter-jurisdictional cooperation on land use issues Develop a Regional compact that creates an effective mechanism for Mobility, Prosperity, Equity and Environmental Sustainability http://www.scag.ca.gov/livable:  http://www.scag.ca.gov/livable

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