Global warming

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Published on February 25, 2014

Author: bayramgeldi21

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GLO BAL WARM ING

Climate changes

Climate changes 18,000 years ago Present Glacier ice Sea ice

Florida’s coast during the LGM Climate change has effects 18,000 years ago

Warming Fluctuate  with  climate: • Temperature  (pa+erns) • Ice  cover • Sea  level • Precipita7on  (pa+erns) • Vegeta7on  cover

Essen1al  Principles of  Climate  Science

1.  The  Sun  is  the  primary   source  of  energy  for  Earth’s   climate  system

Naturally,  heat-­‐trapping  gases  in   the  atmosphere  keep  the   Earth’s  surface  warm Human  ac1vi1es  are  increasing   the  concentra1ons  of  some  of   these  gases,  amplifying  the   natural  greenhouse  effect

2.  Climate  is  regulated  by complex  interac1ons among  various  systems

Humans

46

47

3.  Life  on  Earth  depends   on,  is  affected  by,  and   affects  climate

4.  Climate  varies   over  space  and  1me   through  both   natural  and  human   processes Muir  glacier,  Alaska August  1941 Muir  glacier,  Alaska August  2004

5.  Our  understanding  of   the  climate  system  is   improved  through   observa1ons,  theore1cal   studies,  and  modeling

6.  Human  ac1vi1es   are  impac1ng  the   climate  system

7.  Climate  change   will  have   consequences  on   the  Earth  system   and  human  life

1824: Jean-­‐Bap1ste  Fourier  discusses  greenhouse  effect  

1861: John  Tyndall  Publishes   that  CO2  and  H2O  are   greenhouse  gasses

1896: Svante  Arrhenius  proposed  anthropogenic   greenhouse  effect;  burning  fossil  fuels  will   build-­‐up  CO2  and  lead  to  “desirable”  warming  

1938: G.S.  Callendar  argues  that   anthropogenic  warming  is  underway

1956: Gilbert  Plass  calculates  that  CO2  emissions  will   have  a  significant  effect  on  Earth’s  radia<on   balance,  3°F  by  end  of  century

1957: Roger  Revelle  warns  "large-­‐scale  geophysical   experiment”;  he  and  David  Keeling  begin   monitoring  CO2

Atmospheric  CO2  (ppmv) Present CO2 concentration (391 ppmv) !+#$ !*#$ !)#$ !(#$ !'#$ !&#$ !!#$ !%#$ !"#$ "+''$ "+('$ "+)'$ "+*'$ "++'$ %##'$

CO2 concentration after 30 years of unrestricted fossil fuel burning (600 ppmv) 270 240 210 180 Temp. Proxy CO2 (ppmv) 300 350 Present CO2 concentration (391 ppmv) 800 600 400 200 Thousands of Years Before Present Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004 0

1980s: Warmest  decade  on  record

1990s: Warmest  decade  in  1000  years

Global Instrumental Temperature Record 1 Global Temperature anomalies (°C) 5-year running mean 0.8 Global Temperature Anomaly (ºC) 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0 -0.2 Smokin’ -0.4 Hottest decade in 1000 years -0.6 Hottest decade on record -0.8 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Snow  in the  desert?

Ice cover Temperature

Ice cover ? Temperature

Hysteresis system that exhibits non-linear behavior

Arc1c  Sea  Ice  Mel1ng 1979

Arc1c  Sea  Ice  Mel1ng 2005

Arc1c  Sea  Ice  Mel1ng 2007

Arc1c  sea  ice  extent Summer  Ice  Extent    (106  km2) '" &#$" &" %#$" %" $#$" $" !#$" !" ()&$" ()'$" ())$" *++$" Source:  Na7onal  Snow  and  Ice  Data  Center

Arc1c  Warming Temperature Anomaly (°C) 2.0 1.0 0.0 All land area Arctic (land north of 65°N) -1.0 1960 1980 2000

Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02

Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02

Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02

Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02

Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02

Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02

Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02

Sea-level rise

Sea-­‐level  rise 1. Thermal  expansion 2. Mel3ng  small  glaciers   and  ice  caps 3. Freshening  of  water 4. Mel3ng  ice  sheets • • Greenland:  7.4  m  (25’) Antarc7ca:  74  m  (250’) • • West  Antarc7ca  (7  m) East  Antarc7ca  (67  m)

“ Those  of  us  who  live   on  small  specks  of   land  .  .  .  have  not   agreed  to  be  sacrificial   lambs  on  the  altar  of   success  of  industrial   civiliza1on. Ambassador  Lionel  Hurst of  An1gua  and  Barbuda June  28,  2002 Photo by rembcc

McCarty  Glacier,  Alaska 2004 1909

Rhone  1900

Rhone  2008

Kilimanjaro 1993 2000

Qori  Kalis 1978 2002

Patagonia 1928 2004

225’ 25’ 250’

Antarctic Warming (1957-2006)

R.  Huff,  J.  Box,  S.  Starkweather,  T.  Albert

Total  melt  area Source:  Passive  Microwave  Satellite  Melt  Record

2007 Melt-day anomaly Microwave data from SSMI reveals more melting days in 2007 than during the period 1988–2006 Credit: NASA/Earth Observatory

Mass change on Greenland 200 Unfiltered data Seasonally filtered data 0 Mass Change [Gt] -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 -1400 2007 Extreme Summer Melt -1600 -1800 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: GRACE measurements

June  14,  2001

June  13,  2002

June  17,  2003

That’s  about   600,000  lbs  per   person  on  Earth! Since  2003: More  than  2  trillion  tons  of  ice  in  Greenland,   Antarc1ca  and  Alaska  has  melted

Sea-­‐level  rise

Sea-­‐level  rise

Sea-­‐level  rise

of  1m  can  increase  the  change  in  mean  sea  level   A ore  than  1000  1mes. y  of  extreme  events  by  m frequenc

Coastal   popula1on

25’  rise  in  sea  level

250’  rise  in  sea  level

Manhaian

Manhaian  +26’

Manhaian  +26’

Consequences

10 Data (CDIAC) 9 8 7 Model Scenarios Fossil Fuel Emissions (Gigatonnes C / yr) Depends  on  our  emissions A1B A1FI (Worst case?) A1T A2 B1 B2 6 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Global  average  temperatures will  rise  1-­‐6°C  by  2100

Increased  diseases,   both  air-­‐borne  (e.g.   asthma)  and  insect-­‐ borne  (e.g.  malaria)

Over  1,000,000  species  face  ex1nc1on

More  extreme   weather: Droughts  and  floods,   frosts  and  heat-­‐waves,   and  severe  storms

Severe  water  shortages,   especially  where  supply   depends  on  glaciers

Wide-­‐spread  hunger   due  to  drought  and   deser1fica1on

Numbers  of  CATEGORY  4  AND  5   storms  by  ocean  basin

Water  temperature  and  storms  severity Atlantic Potential Destructive intensity (PDI) 0.4 Atlantic Storm Intensity (PDI) 0.2 Aug.-Oct. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Emanuel, K. (2005), Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 2005

Idealized  hurricane  simula1ons (9  GCMs,  3  basins,  4  parameteriza1ons,  6-­‐member  ensembles) 160 Category 5 Category 4 Category 3 140 Number of occurrences Control (mean = 934 mb) 120 High CO2 (mean = 924 mb) 100 80 60 40 20 0 880 900 920 940 Minimum central pressure (mb) Knutson, T. K., and R. E. Tuleya, 2004, Journal of Climate. 960

50% Hurricanes are now 50% STRONGER and LONGER lasting than 30 years ago

Coastal  flooding  and   storm  surges

Environmental Refugees Millions of people 150 (projected) 50 (projected) 25 1995 2010 Source: IPCC (2007) 2050

OTHER  HAZARDS Glacial  quakes Glacier  out-­‐burst  floods

What  can  we  do?

Plant  trees!

Reduce  consumpDon

Shop  smart

AlternaDve  energy

Biodiesel Cleaner Renewable Reduced  emissions Grown  on  US  farms Reduce   dependence  on   foreign  oil Increases   mileage,   power,  and   engine  life

Be  informed

Unplug

ncy cie e  effi rov Imp

Don’t  buy  ocean-­‐front   property

T R A M S

Form  PACs

Don’t  remain  happy  in  ignorance

todda@me.com

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