10_09 IAEG petley v2

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Information about 10_09 IAEG petley v2
Science-Technology

Published on September 8, 2010

Author: Dr_Dave

Source: authorstream.com

Non-seismic landslide hazards along the Himalayan Arc : Non-seismic landslide hazards along the Himalayan Arc D. Petley, N. Rosser Durham University D. Karim, S. Wali, N. Ali, N. Nasab & K. Shaban Focus Humanitarian Assistance, Pakistan Powerpoint file available at: http:daveslandslideblog.blogspot.com CRED data for landslide fatalities : CRED data for landslide fatalities 6587 Other disasters 2002-2009 (CRED database) Earthquake: 429,877 River flood: 37,860 Storm: 166,410 Volcano: 221 Slide 3: Landslides from the Kashmir earthquake Landslides from the Wenchuan earthquake Other disasters 2002-2009 (CRED database) Earthquake: 429,877 River flood: 37,860 Storm: 166,410 Volcano: 221 The (more) true human cost of landslides 82,439 Global fatal rainfall-induced landslides – 2006 to 2009 : Global fatal rainfall-induced landslides – 2006 to 2009 Global landslide mortality model(non-seismic) : Global landslide mortality model(non-seismic) Slide 6: Himalayan Arc Himalayan Arc – 2004 to 2009 : Himalayan Arc – 2004 to 2009 Annual cycle in pentads (five day bins) : Annual cycle in pentads (five day bins) Trend in occurrence? : Trend in occurrence? Slide 10: Attabad Slide 13: Slope identified as unstable in 2003 Slide 16: 1. Progressive failure over >7 years 2. Catastrophic failure event in Jan 2010 with no trigger 3. Emplacement of rockslide onto lake sediments triggered secondary high velocity mudflow event 1858 landslide dam : 1858 landslide dam Wenchuan Risk TableYang et al 2010 : Wenchuan Risk TableYang et al 2010 Data driven flood estimation : Data driven flood estimation Typical values of maximum discharge using this approach: 14,000 cumecs (Costa and Schuster 1986) 12,000 - 26,000 cumecs (Walder and O’Connor 1997) Management of the hazard : Management of the hazard Initial management response was the construction of a spillway. Original intention: 30 metres deep Actual depth at time of overtopping: 15 metres Final spillway was very narrow and unlined Evacuations : Evacuations After the landslide, Focus installed sirens in 15 villages People in most hazardous areas relocated into camps Boat service established on lake, but enormous hardship upstream One month before overtopping NDMA evacuated 15,000 people downstream of barrier Seepage : Seepage Seepage development : Seepage development Slide 26: Prediction of date of overtopping Water level rise : Water level rise Overtopping behaviour : Overtopping behaviour Evolution of spillway discharge : Evolution of spillway discharge Spillway discharge – depth relationship : Spillway discharge – depth relationship Spillway evolution : Spillway evolution Management problems : Management problems Karakoram Highway remains blocked After recent floods, Gilgit-Baltistan was cut off to north and south Loss of productive land Loss of cash crop markets Landslide hazard remains Progressive failure GLOF Seismic event Landslide into lake Should the lake level be lowered? Jay Village, Afghanistan : Jay Village, Afghanistan 30th April 2010: Jay means “blockage” Powerpoint file available at: http:daveslandslideblog.blogspot.com

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