Published on February 14, 2014
10 reasons for staying cautious on emerging markets 2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
“The decision in the US to reduce its bond-buying program, coupled with slow Chinese growth, has caused a lot of uncertainty in emerging markets in recent months. With the valuations of emerging market stocks falling, some investors actually see it as a good time to invest in them, but our view remains that the inherent risks far outweigh any small pockets of good value that may exist. At Nutmeg, we decided to sell our emerging markets investments in June last year and our customers’ portfolios are more oriented towards developed market equities. In 10 charts, here’s why we think it’s prudent to be wary of emerging markets as a whole right now…” Shaun Port, Chief Investment Officer, Nutmeg February 2014 2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
1. Higher growth does not mean higher equity returns 2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
2. Emerging markets enjoyed big tailwinds in the five years before the financial crisis – it’s unlikely to happen again 2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
3. Growth in China, a big driver of emerging markets, is likely to be lower this decade than the previous 10 years 2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
4. Growth across the range of emerging market countries is now looking weak 2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
5. The outlook for commodity markets is poor 2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
6. Restored competitiveness in developed markets is now increasing competition and therefore damaging emerging markets 2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
7. Structural issues have not been resolved in many emerging markets exchange rates versus the US dollar are declining 2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
8. Emerging markets are cheap compared to 20032007 but not compared to the past 20 years 2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
9. One emerging market equity market is not like another 2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
10. Investors are only now starting to review emerging market allocations, so a further sell-off may be coming 2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
2014 Nutmeg Saving and Investment Limited
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