Published on January 7, 2008
IPCC Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC Summary for Policy Makers Global average temperature will increase (1.4 – 5.8oC by 2100) but with important regional differences: Warming higher than average in Northern & Central Asia; lower than average in South Southeast Asia and in Southern Hemisphere More “El Nino-like” in tropical Pacific with an eastward shift in rainfall Larger year-to-year variations in rainfall: Increase in variability of Asian summer monsoon Increased risk of droughts & floods with ENSO IPCC Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC Summary for Policy Makers Projected changes in extreme events unclear but the following are likely: More intense precipitation events very likely over many areas; Increase in summer continental drying and associated risk of drought likely over mid-latitude, continental interiors; Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity likely over some areas; Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities likely over some areas Global mean sea level projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 metres by 2100 1997-1998 El Niño -- Palau: 1997-1998 El Niño -- Palau Sea Level Rise – saltwater intrusion caused 1/3 of Palau’s taro crop to fail during ’97/98; beaches being washed away SST Elevation – 30% of Palau’s coral reefs were destroyed by bleaching Pacific Islands Regional Assessment: Pacific Islands Regional Assessment Focus on Vulnerability in order to: Understand exposure & sensitivity (impacts) Address adaptive capacity (resilience) Develop appropriate response options Engage all experts in shared learning and joint problem-solving Pacific Assessment:Key Issues: Pacific Assessment: Key Issues Providing Access to Fresh Water Protecting Public Health Ensuring Public Safety & Protecting Community Infrastructure (extreme events) Sustaining Tourism Sustaining Agriculture Promoting Wise Use of Coastal & Marine Resources Providing Access to Fresh WaterSome Initial Thoughts: Providing Access to Fresh Water Some Initial Thoughts “Water is Gold” – cascading effects Limited (natural) storage capacity Dependence on rainfall; subject to seasonal and year-to-year variations Increasing demand – population growth and economic development Infrastructure constraints Institutional challenges Providing Access to Fresh WaterEnhancing Resilience: Providing Access to Fresh Water Enhancing Resilience Improve Infrastructure/Enhance Capacity Evaluate Existing Assets and Develop Unused/Alternative Sources Incentives for Water Conservation and Wastewater Recovery and Reuse Providing Access to Fresh WaterEnhancing Resilience: Providing Access to Fresh Water Enhancing Resilience Encourage Public-Private Partnerships Among Large-Scale Users (tourism, agriculture, military) Pursue Watershed Protection and Restoration Emphasize Integrated Water and Land Use Management; Explore Traditional Practices (e.g., Ahupua’a in Hawaii) Providing Access to Fresh WaterEnhancing Resilience: Providing Access to Fresh Water Enhancing Resilience Plan for extremes (particularly droughts) Integrate climate information into decision making Emphasize self-sufficiency in long-term planning Promote public awareness, education, dialogue & capacity-building Marine and Coastal ResourcesSome Initial Thoughts: Marine and Coastal Resources Some Initial Thoughts Direct impacts on: human settlements, critical coastal resources and habitats (e.g., coral reefs, mangroves, beaches), and threatened/endangered species Consequences for economically-significant fisheries (e.g., tuna in Pacific) and/or key sectors (e.g., tourism) Multiple stresses (rainfall, temperature, sea level and human activities) Long-term trends and extreme events Marine and Coastal ResourcesEnhancing Resilience: Marine and Coastal Resources Enhancing Resilience Flexible Management Approaches Routine integration of climate information into planning and regulatory regimes Policies that recognize that ecosystems are dynamic; ability to accommodate surprises Precautionary approaches Reduce Risk of Economic Losses Regional revenue sharing Ability to harvest a range of resources Stock enhancement, aquaculture, mariculture Marine and Coastal ResourcesEnhancing Resilience: Marine and Coastal Resources Enhancing Resilience Integrated Coastal Zone Management Framework for climate adaptation Engages experts from affected communities Coordination among sectors and across levels of government Control Introduction of Invasive and Alien Species Education and Awareness Programs Enhancing Resilience: Enhancing Resilience Encourage emergence of comprehensive risk management programs in the region Proactive planning—climate risk management in a sustainable development context: Responding to today’s variability Adaptation to long-term change Economic planning & community development Leadership essential – governments, businesses, NGOs, communities, educators Enhancing Resilience: Enhancing Resilience Be Proactive – “Meninkairoir” Meet today’s needs while planning for the future Address current constraints on critical infrastructure (water, health, transportation, etc.) Integrate climate information in decision making; flexible management approaches Education, public awareness & dialogue Build and sustain critical partnerships Mainstreaming Climate Information for Adaptation: Sources of Lessons: Mainstreaming Climate Information for Adaptation: Sources of Lessons 2002 Snowmass Institute on Integrated Assessments: Special Session on Adaptation Symposium on Climate and Extreme Events in Asia-Pacific: Enhancing Resilience & Improving Decision Making (Bangkok, March 2003) Mobilizing Solutions for Adaptation: Enhancing Resilience (New Orleans, October 2003) Insights and Tools for Adaptation: Learning from Climate Variability (Washington, D.C., November 2003) Some Definitions…: Some Definitions… Vulnerability – a combination of sensitivity, exposure and resilience (adaptive capacity); focus on Reducing exposure and/or sensitivity or Enhancing resilience Adaptation – those activities that people, individually or in groups such as households, villages, companies and various forms of government, carry out in order to accommodate, cope with or reduce the adverse effects of climate variability and change (SPREP, 2000); generally two types; Anticipatory (proactive) Reactive A General Approach to Adaptation Mainstreaming (New Orleans, 2003): A General Approach to Adaptation Mainstreaming (New Orleans, 2003) Adaptation entails the consideration of climatic variability and change in ongoing decision-making processes, development plans, projects & initiatives Improving society’s ability to cope with changes in climate across timescales Allows for adaptation to both natural and anthropogenic changes in climate Adaptation requires being proactive regarding the full range of future stresses Recognize interconnections between socioeconomic, environmental and climatic stresses Comprehensive risk management where climate is one factor in a multi-stress environment A General Approach to Adaptation Mainstreaming (New Orleans, 2003): A General Approach to Adaptation Mainstreaming (New Orleans, 2003) The goal of adaptation is to enhance resilience and develop flexible management approaches that facilitate adjustments in response to changing climate conditions: Address today’s problems and plan for the future Respond to both climate-related challenges and opportunities Evolutionary process of minimizing risk, reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience Methods & Mechanisms for Adaptation:(New Orleans, 2003) : Methods & Mechanisms for Adaptation: (New Orleans, 2003) Consider the context in which adaptation must take place: Work with stakeholders to develop problem-specific solutions – mainstreaming climate information to support adaptation a “demand-driven” enterprise Understand the decision making processes Identify appropriate intervention points Emphasize adaptive management Support and integrate indigenous adaptations Methods & Mechanisms for Adaptation:(New Orleans, 2003): Methods & Mechanisms for Adaptation: (New Orleans, 2003) In the context of natural resources, effective adaptation a balance between bottoms-up (multiple, individual projects) and top-down (imposition of a management structure) Use a wide range of networks and partnerships (government, social, scientific, private sector networks) Foster cross-sectoral integration Work at multiple levels of governance Methods & Mechanisms for Adaptation:(New Orleans, 2003): Methods & Mechanisms for Adaptation: (New Orleans, 2003) Work “end-to-end” – from planning through implementation, monitoring, evaluation and adjustment Start with existing planning efforts Set priorities to maximize use of limited resources Monitor and assess progress often & continuously Develop indicators of outcomes Work in multiple timescales Decision makers interested in continuum of information from extreme events through seasonal outlooks to long-term projections Exploring linkages important Some Barriers to Adaptation(New Orleans, 2003): Some Barriers to Adaptation (New Orleans, 2003) Systemic and perceptual barriers including: Difficulties communicating information across sectors and among levels of government Short-term planning horizons on the part of some policy officials and decision makers Mechanisms for using market forces to facilitate adaptation not well established Vulnerable countries have limited capacity and in-house expertise Approaches for integrating climate information into decision making and long-term planning efforts not well established Reliance on historical data and patterns No well-established framework for priorities Closing Thoughts on Adaptation: Closing Thoughts on Adaptation Government leadership—at all levels Risk management a useful framework for building partnerships and guiding climate information systems Proactive planning—climate risk management in a sustainable development context: Responding to today’s variability Adaptation to long-term change Economic planning & community development
Act I, Scene 1 recap. Receive your MacPacket; read and discuss definition of a classical tragedy and why Shakespeare wrote Macbeth. Continue reading ...
1: 2: 3: 4: 5: Words of the Day #101 and #102: ingratiate and immemorial. Introduction to The Secret Life of Bees by Sue Monk Kidd. Receive book ...