Published on January 16, 2008
Slide1: 10th December 2007 Technology Forum, University of Surrey www.crijnders.com ir. Christiaan Rijnders Slide2: Contents Formula 1 as a micro-cosmos of industry trends What makes Ferrari successful? Current pressures on engineering industries Complexity for industry will increase even more Quality management and systems engineering must evolve Key building blocks for progress Technical management in 2015-2020 How can Universities prepare their students for this? www.crijnders.com Slide3: Formula 1 as a micro-cosmos of industry trends Diminishing efficiency and flexibility Even best conventional tools cannot capture complex dynamics Multitude of sensors Advanced manufacturing Advanced materials, low tolerances Design for: - manufacturing & - maintainability & - upgrades Design & realization in 8 months Highly integrated team effort Evolutionary process Enhancing human ability with technology More performance with instability Human factors (simulators, cognitive and social modeling) www.crijnders.com Increasingly complex simulation and analysis Slide4: What makes Ferrari successful? Quality management Well defined tests, procedures, etc. Focus on higher-level cross-discipline interactions No single department or detail drives development Aim for single, globally integrated simulation and analysis package Information available for all and used by everyone Driven by objective data Telemetry / simulation “data fusion” Key for diagnostics and prognostics Creativity and risk-taking are stimulated Solutions not blaming www.crijnders.com Slide5: Current pressures on engineering industries Faster design-to-production cycle Earlier introduction of new technologies and materials React quicker to markets or legislation or customer concerns Apply more complex electronics (mechatronics, sensors) Have more detailed and intricate simulation models Less prototypes and less physical testing Smaller workforce and more global outsourcing ....all while lowering costs and keeping quality at least equal! www.crijnders.com Slide6: Memory, reasoning, adaptation Emergent: products evolve beyond the production line in unique ways Complexity for industry will increase even more “Intelligent” technology Sensors, sensors and more sensors Will be everywhere: exponential growth in amount of data Impossible to analyze with current methods Full flexibility, mass customization Many more version, much later design changes Many different products with same building blocks Limits of current quality management and systems engineering Flexible design teams, flexible manufacturing TQM loop, traceability Which data for statistics? www.crijnders.com Quality management and systems engineering must evolve: Quality management and systems engineering must evolve www.crijnders.com Flexibility of model, not speed of simulation (off-the-shelf, modular and carry-over parts) Fidelity, not accuracy Beyond Six Sigma, DFSS, Axiomatic Design Close the quality loop after the production line Understand adaptive steps Immediate data for all products with telematics New project metrics Full life cycle model: evolutionary design process Non-linearity, missing data, etc “Battlespace integration” Measure unknown, ac-hoc, constantly changing environment Generate a strategic overview for managers Slide8: Key building blocks for progress The ever-decreasing price, increasing performance and robustness of electronic chip technology New material technologies (miniaturization, strength, production, etc) New propulsion and energy storage technologies New generation of miniature sensors with embedded software New ways of viewing data and interacting with data New powerful learning algorithms (neuroscience, cognitive engineering, bioengineering) New wireless communication and navigation possibilities Relentless development of the Internet (“Semantic Web”: information, not data) Open Source software Open innovation models www.crijnders.com Technical management in 2015- 2020: Technical management in 2015- 2020 www.crijnders.com Slide10: How can Universities prepare their students? Not only government, military, space Real value propositions: creating value from information For technical graduates more focus on management aspects The management theory will need to be created by them Entrepreneurial spirit required Go beyond research projects with sensors to industry needs Change the way industry measures, stores and views data Cross-fertilize from neuroscience, cognitive science, bioengineering Augmented reality, touch-screen, voice commands, etc Web 2.0 / Semantic knowledge databases which do not degrade www.crijnders.com Slide11: www.crijnders.com Questions…?