07 Lutes

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Published on December 29, 2007

Author: Callia

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Slide1:  Briefing to the Transformation Chairs 26 Jun 2007 Colonel Charles D. Lutes The Spacepower Tea Background:  Background QDR Roots Spacepower theory project first discussed as part of QDR IPT #3 (Enablers) co-chaired by Dr. Cambone and Gen Moseley Desire for a “Mahanian theory” for space Feb 06 Tasking to NDU DUSD-I (P&W) requested NDU to “craft a spacepower theory comparable to theories that exist for other domains, for example seapower.” Deliverable Provide a national spacepower theory that provides a comprehensive conceptual foundation, highlights common language and principles, and illuminates ways of thinking about and using space. Terms of Reference:  Terms of Reference Strategic Direction INSS will “develop a theoretical framework for examining the fundamental aspects of spacepower and its relation to the pursuit of national security, economic, informational, and scientific objectives.” Should document views of principal users of space Focus on the underlying assumptions regarding why and how we as a society, nation, and military might use space to accomplish specified ends Scope Study should: Identify and develop the theoretical foundations of spacepower Address spacepower across a broad range of objectives that any space-faring state or non-state actor may want to pursue Explain the role of space in advancing national security objectives in support of these broader interests Study should not: Focus on organizational or programmatic issues Work Completed:  Work Completed Research effort has included thus far: 20 seminars 2 workshops 2 major conferences Final Products: Volume I: Synthesized Theory - written by core team (@ 100 pages) STATUS: Completing Initial draft by 15 Jul 07 Volume II: Supporting Material - contributed by 32 authors STATUS: First draft for all chapters; 90% final drafts received Spacepower Theory: Supporting Material:  Spacepower Theory: Supporting Material Spacepower Theory Volume II Final Drafts completed: Section I: Introduction to Spacepower Theory Chapter 1: On the Nature of Theory: Harold R. Winton Chapter 2: International Relations Theory and Spacepower: Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. Chapter 3: Landpower, Seapower, and Spacepower: John M. Collins Chapter 4: Airpower, Cyberpower, and Spacepower: Benjamin S. Lambeth Section II: Spacepower and Geopolitics Chapter 5: Orbital Terrain and Space Physics: Martin E.B. France & Jerry Jon Sellers Chapter 6: Space Law and Governance Structures: Joanne Irene Gabrynowicz Chapter 7: Building on Previous Spacepower Theory: Colin S. Gray & John B. Sheldon Section III: Commercial Space Perspectives Chapter 8: History of Commercial Space Activity and Spacepower: Henry R. Hertzfeld Chapter 9: Commercial Space Industry and Markets: Joseph Fuller, Jr. Chapter 10: Merchants and Guardians: Scott Pace Chapter 11: Innovative Approaches to Commercial Space: Ivan Bekey Section IV: Civil Space Perspectives Chapter 12: History of Civil Space Activity and Spacepower: Roger D. Launius Chapter 13: Affordable and Responsive Space Systems: Sir Martin Sweeting Chapter 14: Competing Visions for Exploration: Klaus P. Heiss & Dennis R. Wingo; Robert Zubrin Supporting Material (cont.):  Supporting Material (cont.) Section V: Security Space Perspectives Chapter 16: History of Security Space Activity and Spacepower: James Lewis Chapter 17: Increasing the Military Uses of Space: Henry F. Cooper, Jr. & Everett C. Dolman Chapter 18: Preserving Freedom of Action in Space: Michael Krepon, Theresa Hitchens & Michael Katz-Hyman Chapter 19: Balancing Security Interests: Michael E. O’Hanlon Section VI: International Perspectives Chapter 20: Russia: James E. Oberg Chapter 21: China: Dean Cheng Chapter 22: Europe: Xavier Pasco Chapter 23: Emerging Actors: Randall R. Correll Section VII: Evolving Futures for Spacepower Chapter 24: Evolving U.S. Structures: John M. Logsdon Chapter 25: Technological Drivers: Taylor Dinerman Chapter 26: Building Human Capital for Spacepower: S. Peter Worden Appendices Space Law: Outer Space Treaty, Registration Convention, Rescue and Return Agreement, Liability Convention, Moon Treaty, PAROS Proposals, IADC Orbits and Orbital Mechanics Way Ahead:  Way Ahead Refine/Revise Draft: 15 July 07 Focus groups roundtables: July, Aug, Sept 07 1-2 Senior mentor meetings: retired and active stakeholders 1-2 Academic focus groups 1-2 Space community Asia trip - Japan, China, India: Sep 07 At each location, hold roundtable discussions with: U.S. Embassy Security Institute (NIDS, PLA/NDU, IDSA) Academic group Civil/Commercial group Project Complete: 30 Sep 07 Final draft delivered to NDU press Volume 1: Towards a Theory of Spacepower: A Synthesis:  Volume 1: Towards a Theory of Spacepower: A Synthesis A Theory of Spacepower (Volume I):  A Theory of Spacepower (Volume I) Chapter 1: Theoretical Perspectives Chapter 2: Defining Spacepower Chapter 3: Describing Spacepower Chapter 4: The Socio-Cultural Power of Space Chapter 5: The Economic Power of Space Chapter 6: Space and the International System Chapter 7: National Security and Spacepower Chapter 8: Implications for the United States Chapter 9: Towards the Next Space Age Why Do Humans Go To Space?:  Why Do Humans Go To Space? Peace and Stability Prestige Prosperity Preservation and Advancement of Mankind Human Activity in Space:  Human Activity in Space Through space, humans have the power to: Create Destroy Prosper Survive Explore Chapter 1: Theoretical Perspectives:  Chapter 1: Theoretical Perspectives Mahan and his Influence on Spacepower Theory:  Mahan and his Influence on Spacepower Theory Among all changes, the nature of man remains much the same. -- A.T. Mahan Analyzed 1st tier naval powers to derive lessons for emerging naval powers Provided a complex picture of the interrelated dynamics of naval and maritime commercial activity with international politics Liberal political-economic views Rejected the notion of a world consisting of competing players with mutually exclusive interests Believed naval supremacy would be exercised by a transnational consortium of navies Basic principles of strategy are relatively unaffected by technical progress Human character is an absolute constant Chapter 2: Defining Spacepower:  Chapter 2: Defining Spacepower Defining Space:  Defining Space EARTH ~16 miles: Highest manned aircraft (U-2) ~93 miles: Lowest possible circularized orbit (already in decay) ~26 miles: Highest possible buoyant “flight” Transverse Region Where laws of Bernoulli, Archimedes, & Kepler cannot be exploited for practical operations Thin Air Air 50 miles: Astronaut wings Aeronautics Astronautics Space begins at the lowest perigee of an orbiting satellite, about 93 miles beyond Earth’s surface Defining Spacepower:  Defining Spacepower Power: The ability to effect the outcomes you want, and if necessary, to change the behavior of others to make this happen. (Nye) Spacepower: The ability to use space to get desired outcomes by influencing the environment and the behavior of others. Words don’t always solve problems, sometimes you just have to punch an alien in the face. Chapter 3: Describing Spacepower:  Chapter 3: Describing Spacepower Slide18:  Spacepower is shaped by: Physical properties: Cosmography, astrodynamics, and astrophysics Technology: Financial, material, and industrial resources Culture : Popular support, well educated technical culture, strategic culture or national style Politics: Long term political will, external motivation, security needs Governance: Treaties, laws (domestic and international), regimes, partnerships etc… Space as a place:  Space as a place Space is a unique operating environment…but what is its nature? Oil Platforms Chapter 4: The Socio-Cultural Power of Space:  Chapter 4: The Socio-Cultural Power of Space The Final Frontier?:  The Final Frontier? Societal Benefits of Space Activity:  Societal Benefits of Space Activity Environmental monitoring Energy & resources Technology Spinoffs The Frail Blue Dot:  The Frail Blue Dot Since, in the long run, every planetary society will be endangered by impacts from space, every surviving civilization is obliged to become spacefaring—not because of exploratory or romantic zeal, but for the most practical reason imaginable: staying alive. Carl Sagan You are Here Chapter 5: The Economic Power of Space:  Chapter 5: The Economic Power of Space Slide25:  Thomas Friedman: Globalization is “the overarching international system shaping the domestic politics and foreign relations of virtually every country” Robert Reich: “Technology and globalization are often discussed as separate trends, but they are becoming one and the same.” Space applications are fundamental, though often transparent, in a globalizing world Creating Wealth in the Next Space Age:  Creating Wealth in the Next Space Age Extensions of current applications: Telecommunications; earth observation; position, navigation, and timing (PNT) New applications Space production: In-orbit servicing; in-orbit manufacturing; energy; extraterrestrial mining Space tourism/adventure “What will be remembered about our lifetime one thousand years from today? They will look at our society as primitive and stupid and ignorant. But one thing they will remember is that we are the first society in human history to create wealth beyond our planet. I believe the next generation or two will see enormous increases in human activities in space. Combined with other changes, you will have a Fourth Wave society.” -- Alvin Toffler Chapter 6: Spacepower and the International System:  Chapter 6: Spacepower and the International System Cooperation, Competition and Conflict:  Cooperation, Competition and Conflict Socio-cultural: Improving the human condition Cooperation, Competition, Conflict Economic: Generating wealth Cooperation, Competition, Conflict Military: Providing security Cooperation, Competition, Conflict The Evolution of the Space Ages:  The Evolution of the Space Ages The Evolution of the Space Ages:  The Evolution of the Space Ages Slide31:  The Evolution of the Space Ages Chapter 7: Space and National Security:  Chapter 7: Space and National Security Role of National Security Space :  Role of National Security Space Within the context of the international system, space capabilities of a nation should support: Socio-cultural interests International cooperation for scientific advancement, environmental improvement, & planetary defense Economic interests Maintenance of space as a global commons for flows of global information and economic opportunities in space Geo-political interests Maintenance or advancement of status of nations and societies in the international system Protect nation from rivals using space for aggression Increasingly, national security space will be asked to protect and advance commercial and civil interests in space Limitations of Spacepower:  Limitations of Spacepower Fragility and vulnerability of space assets Cost Technology and physical limitations Vulnerability to detection Legal constraints and governance structures Strategic Interests in Space:  Strategic Interests in Space Only major powers can afford the costs involved in a comprehensive approach toward national security space Space activity is inherently expensive Costs escalate with complexity and comprehensiveness of security program Smaller or emerging powers can afford to take a narrower view: space as tactical advantage or strategic spoiler Space is an essential component of global system Major powers share vital interest of preserving space and protecting link to economic vitality and globalization Space as a medium: operationally and tactically distinct; strategically integrated with other domains Strategic aspect should not be subordinated to operational or tactical considerations Predominant focus on tactical advantage may be to detriment of strategic utility or national interests Comprehensive approach is necessary Maintenance of space as a “global commons” and protection of commercial assets Beyond capacity of a single state—especially if confronted with a hostile coalition/array of challenges Mahan Strategic Choices:  Strategic Choices Major power Strategic role as custodian of global common of space; strategic approach should be to build and maintain coalition to protect the space-based international commercial and financial system Balance force attributes across domains Not economically feasible to achieve balance within every domain, especially in space where vulnerabilities will persist Current space assets not resilient—ASAT, EMP Vulnerabilities demand risk analysis—work to close vulnerabilities in space; pursue ways to achieve capability elsewhere Resilience: redundancy, multi-dimensional capacity, protection, reserves or ability to respond Emerging powers Optimize discrete capabilities May produce tactical or operational disruption Could secure operational or regional goals—but less likely to achieve a fundamental rebalancing of the international strategic balance equation Major powers counter through doctrine, technology, other domains, Example: submarine warfare counters convoys/routes, sonar/depth charges, bomb yards, air-sea patrols, radio intercepts Chapter 8: Implications for the United States:  Chapter 8: Implications for the United States Adaptation of Military Forces :  Adaptation of Military Forces Throughout history, effective militaries have sought to balance their forces to be able to: Sense Shield Strike Maneuver An imbalanced force can lead to vulnerabilities or ineffectiveness. Rivals will adapt counters based on force mix imbalance Responses to U.S. Military Space Forces :  Responses to U.S. Military Space Forces Current U.S. military space forces are designed to provide overwhelming advantages by enabling terrestrial sensing and strike However, U.S. space forces have limited to no ability to sense, shield, strike, and maneuver against other space forces or counter space forces Also no capacity to shield (protect) commercial assets As a counter to the U.S. precision strike complex, potential rivals will seek to negate the terrestrial strike advantage by threatening vulnerable space capabilities ASAT – discrete capability to “strike” U.S. space assets Includes jamming & lasing as well as hard kill Vulnerability of space assets make a niche program tactically attractive for adversaries Space Dominance Approach :  Space Dominance Approach One approach would be to try to maintain U.S. space dominance Balance forces across the space domain with Space control as the centerpiece of this strategy Space situational awareness (sense) Passive and active satellite defense (shield) Counter-ASAT weapons and capabilities (strike) Highly maneuverable satellites (maneuver) Impractical due to cost and technological hurdles Provokes additional counter responses Pursuit of tactical advantage may be in opposition to strategic interests Global Commons Approach:  Global Commons Approach Focuses on preservation of space as a global commons Cooperation with other space actors to act as custodians of space Consortium among like-minded space faring actors Common norms, rules of the road etc.. Primary task becomes protection of civil, commercial, military assets Develop resiliency among military and commercial space activities Enforcement mechanisms may be through other means Balancing the Force for Resiliency:  Balancing the Force for Resiliency Multi-dimensional capability Develop tactical redundancies in sensing capabilities and CONOPS for air, land, sea, and cyberspace (ie learn to fight without space) Develop use agreements with international and commercial space actors Enhance detection capability Space situational awareness Ground-based and space-based Strategic redundancy in space Distributed architectures Eliminate critical nodes Operationally responsive space Protection capabilities Passive protection, stealth, countermeasures Who will pay for commercial protection capability? Chapter 9: Towards the Next Space Age:  Chapter 9: Towards the Next Space Age Alternative Futures for Spacepower:  Future scenarios will be used to test the principles and propositions of the theory and derive implications for the United States: NIC 2020: Mapping the Global Future Davos World Pax Americana Islamic Caliphate Pervasive Insecurity OECD 2030 Beggar thy Neighbor: unilateralist U.S. Ad Astra: multilateral approaches Eastern Star Rising: China-centric Alternative Futures for Spacepower

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