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05_-_Bernard_Salt_2004

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Information about 05_-_Bernard_Salt_2004
Business-Finance

Published on January 13, 2009

Author: aSGuest10320

Source: authorstream.com

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Major Mail Users of Australia Limited The Big Shift: Australian Culture : Major Mail Users of Australia Limited The Big Shift: Australian Culture Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 11 August 2004 From the bush … out with RM Williams … in with Billabong & Rip Curl : From the bush … out with RM Williams … in with Billabong & Rip Curl Suburban culture emerged during the 20th Century Provincial coastal culture now ascendant Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers Edna Everage; Neighbours 1985; Kath & Kim 2002 “We’re goin’a surf city … gonna have some fun” : Gold Coast 16,099 Casey 10,878 Wyndham 7,298 Brisbane SW 7,048 Melton 6,927 Brisbane NW 6,426 Pine Rivers 6,208 Wanneroo 5,545 Maroochy 4,931 Sydney 4,461 “We’re goin’a surf city … gonna have some fun” Why population shifts are important to business : Why population shifts are important to business 10,000 extra residents support job growth, eg: 3,700 new suburban households, or 6,700 new inner-city households $70 million in new retail spending* $25 million in new supermarket spending* ½ a Kmart One cinema screen 7,500 cubic metres of pre mix concrete Population loss reverses these markets *includes GST Bleeding bush … and the blooming beach : Bleeding bush … and the blooming beach Narooma Nowra-Bomaderry Port Stephens Port Macquarie Coffs Harbour Gold Coast Caloundra Noosa Hervey Bay Yeppoon Whitsunday Townsville Port Douglas Macedon Ranges Roxby Downs Denmark East Pilbara Ngaanyatjarraku Leonora Wiluna Katherine Broome Palmerston Busselton Geraldton Augusta- Margaret River Victor Harbor Sorell Areas of population loss and growth between 1976 and 2003 Aussies slide towards natural decrease … implications for immigration levels : Aussies slide towards natural decrease … implications for immigration levels 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Recession Baby Boom 1975 crisis Fertility decline Boomers die off 2035 Natural decrease 1988 8.5 19.4 25.4 Mum-dad-&-the-kids are on the back foot … and may be extinct by mid century : Single 1,805 1,304 38 501 Couple 2,281 1,876 22 405 Mum, Dad & Kids 1,340 1,331 1 9 Single Parent 307 198 55 109 Group 1,084 945 15 139 Extended 548 520 5 28 7,365 6,174 19 1,191 1991-2001 Net 1,191 or 19.3% Annual Net 119 or 1.8% 2001 1991 % Growth No. No. No. Mum-dad-&-the-kids are on the back foot … and may be extinct by mid century Household formation, health & beauty and lifestyle are driving consumer spending : Y/E May 2004 1994/04 2003/04 $b % change % change Supermarkets, grocery & convenience stores 54.3 88% 6.1% Take-away food retailing 7.9 51% 10.5% Other food retailing 12.5 87% 4.5% Total department stores 15.6 44% 6.1% Clothing retailing 8.5 50% 7.0% Other clothing related retailing 3.4 54% 1.6% Furniture & floor covering retailing 6.2 82% 10.7% Domestic hardware & houseware 8.0 143% 11.5% Domestic appliances & recorded music 11.8 64% 5.1% Newspapers, books & stationery retailing 5.1 44% 11.0% Other recreational goods retailing 2.8 57% 5.6% Pharmaceutical & cosmetic retailing 8.7 103% 16.4% Other retailing (includes musical instruments) 11.0 109% 8.5% Total retail 155.6 77% 7.4% Hotels and licensed clubs 17.3 71% 6.4% Cafes & restaurants 11.7 120% 18.4% Selected services 2.9 91% 4.4% Total retail & hospitality 187.4 79% 7.8% Household formation, health & beauty and lifestyle are driving consumer spending Demographics shape spending behaviour : Demographics shape spending behaviour Chic-house city living … is changing consumer culture and preferences : Chic-house city living … is changing consumer culture and preferences Out with Neighbours … in with Friends, Seinfeld, Sex and the City, The Secret Life of Us Out with the stubbie … in with elegant longneck boutique beer bottles with a designer label Sydney 8,258 Brisbane 6,684 Melbourne 5,093 Perth 1,467 Canberra 877 Adelaide 478 Darwin 424 Hobart -216 Total 23,065 The ageing of the average Aussie bride … is prompting three distinct phases in life : The ageing of the average Aussie bride … is prompting three distinct phases in life Xer brides 29 in 2001 Bridegrooms Baby boomer brides were 21 in 1971 Women want to work … and will make further gains by 2016 : Women want to work … and will make further gains by 2016 % No real change to male participation rates : No real change to male participation rates % Baby boomers just won’t die! : 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 Year Population Baby boomers just won’t die! Source: ABS Censuses; ABS Series B Projections September 2003 It doesn’t get any better after 43-48 : It doesn’t get any better after 43-48 Boomers at their peak until June 2006 … then the slide begins Trendy to be fifty … in 2026 : 20-something 50-something 2003 2.739m 2.464m 2026 2.938m 3.089m Change +7% +25% Trendy to be fifty … in 2026 Source: ABS Project Series B September 2003; ABS 3101.0 December 2003 The Shakira conspiracy : The Shakira conspiracy Why is the average Aussie bride ageing … and what are her prospects? : Why is the average Aussie bride ageing … and what are her prospects? Males 537,000 727,000 Females 352,000 568,000 Ratio 1.53:1 1.28:1 25-34 never married 1991 2001 Unattached blokes grew by 35% Unattached women grew by 61% Conclusion: Australian women are “raising the bar” Why are there so many eligible young bachelors in Sydney? Pyrmont … Sydney’s Menopolis : Pyrmont … Sydney’s Menopolis Further information & contact : Further information & contact The Big Shift 2 – $19.95rrp Bernard Salt’s column appears in The Australian every second Thursday (next – 19 August) Bernard Salt’s column appears monthly in Property Australia Bernard Salt’s column appears monthly in MELBOURNE Magazine Australia 2025 by Bernard Salt, published SMH Spectrum, PDF available on request Contact: Bernard Salt (03) 9288 5047; bsalt@kpmg.com.au; www.thebigshift.com

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