Published on March 11, 2014
2014 & Beyond Tourism Outlook Paul Nursey February 27, 2014
Agenda • Tourism Victoria: What We Do • Short Term Economic Outlook: U.S. Deep Dive • Future Trends • Why It Matters • Key Takeaways
What We Do
Tourism Victoria’s Vision “Tourism Victoria will be internationally recognized as a leader in sustainable tourism development ensuring Greater Victoria remains one of the top destinations in the world”
The Tourism Ecosystem
Customer Expectations Investment in plant and infrastructure are vital as today’s customer has higher expectations than yesterday’s customer. Standing still is not an option.
Marketing Target – Ring of Opportunity
Why is Destination Marketing Important? ROI > 50:1 Source: University of Minnesota
Short Term Economic Outlook
Average Room Rate Greater Victoria Source: Chemistry Consulting
Occupancy Rate Greater Victoria
The Two Big Metrics “Cautiously Optimistic for 2014” 1. Short Term Consumer Confidence 2. GDP Growth
The Big Global Questions: October Eurozone: Any hope for growth?
The Most Important Things In The Landscape • Role-reversal of developed vs. emerging markets? • Worst of fiscal drag behind us • Policy risks in developed economies • Remarkable structural shifts in favor of US
Marketplace: Look Forward Source: Canadian Tourism Commission Research & Evaluation
Exchange Rate: A Deeper Dive Some Recent Challenging Years Even With Softer Canadian Dollar
World GDP Growth
US Labour Market Heals
US Wealth Nears Pre-Peak Levels
Low Inflation Allows For Real Wage Growth
Households Are In Decent Shape
Confidence is rising… 23 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 1985=100 Consumer confidence Conference Board Source: Conference Board, University of Michigan/Haver Analytics Consumer attitudes Consumer sentiment University of Michigan
Big Trends • Experiential tourism: Higher yield & deeper connection with community and place • Rise of Asia: China independent travel • Youth and Boomer travel simultaneously • Global growth in aviation capacity
New Customer Purchase Model
Agile Data Driven Marketing
Why it Matters
Importance • $1.9 Billion contribution to the regional economy (Grant Thornton 2011) • Over 20,000 direct jobs in Greater Victoria • Canada’s number 1 service sector economy • Every $118,000 in tourism revenue creates 1 job (Stats Canada 2012)
Role of Investment • Tourism revenue can never be taken for granted • Competition is fierce • 2013 One Strong Year • Still recovering from 2007/2008
Tourism Drives Trade • New research demonstrates causal relationship • Pioneered in South Korea in 2011 • Study replicated in Canada in 2013 • Just 1% growth in arrivals would drive $817M incremental exports
Short Term • Underlying fundamentals are in place • Strengthening US economy • Moderating Canadian Economy • Asia continues to grow • Signs of life in Europe • We need to compete – the ecosystem needs to be healthy
Medium to Long Term • Globally tourism will continue to grow • Experiential tourisms drives meaning and community engagement • Greater Victoria is well positioned • Need to work on access quickly
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